Semiconductor sector holds steady for now

The Star

15-07-2025

PETALING JAYA: While Malaysia's semiconductor sector is unlikely to be sidelined anytime soon, analysts caution that the risk of gradually losing market share is real if cost pressures persist and regional competition intensifies.
Tradeview Capital fund manager Neoh Jia Man said demand for local semiconductor products and services is expected to remain inelastic over the next few years, as customers struggle to find alternative suppliers quickly.
However, in the long run, they will still look to diversify.
'Customers will almost certainly seek to renegotiate prices, expecting local suppliers to help share the cost burden from tariffs.
'In the end, it depends on how big the local semiconductor companies' profit margins are and how much cost they can absorb,' Neoh told StarBiz.
'I wouldn't say there's no impact on demand, but for now, US customers don't have much choice – at least for the next few years. It would take time for them to fully establish alternative supply chains.'
The United States recently announced a 25% tariff on Malaysia, up from 24% previously, effective Aug 1, 2025.
By comparison, Vietnam will face a lower 20% rate. It was also reported that the US is working on an interim trade deal with India that could reduce its proposed tariffs to below 20%.
For sectors like semiconductors, the Trump administration has signalled since April that a special tariff rate would be applied. While some semiconductor products are exempted from the tariffs announced in April, it remains to be seen if this will continue beyond Aug 1.
Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump said he will 'soon' announce the tariff rate for the chip industry.
Vietnam's success in negotiating a lower tariff, along with India's push into higher-value semiconductor activities, may increase competitive pressure on Malaysia.
This may also accelerate the Malaysia+1 trend, where companies shift some operations out of Malaysia.
Neoh said Vietnam and India 'could pose serious threats' to Malaysian semiconductor companies over the long run, as both countries have the advantage in terms of labour costs and market size.
'Hence, if Malaysia is unable to negotiate a better tariff rate with the United States compared with these countries, then we will definitely lose more business to them over the next decade,' he said.
Phillip Nova senior analyst Danish Lim noted a silver lining: Malaysia's overall tariff rate remains lower than some neighbours such as Thailand, Indonesia and Cambodia.
'The tariff saga could also accelerate the China + 1 shift, with US fabless companies that still run test and packaging facilities in China likely to fast-track (moving) their facilities to Penang or Kulim.
'This would also apply to other countries that have higher tariff rates than Malaysia,' Lim added.
Neoh opined that the China+1 trend may still outweigh the Malaysia+1 phenomenon, as players continue relocating from China to Malaysia.
'As such, we are still a net beneficiary amid the ongoing tariff developments.'
While the risk of gradually losing market share is real, Neoh said the rate at which Malaysian chip companies gain market share from Chinese players might still outpace the rate at which India and Vietnam erode theirs, at least for the next few years.
Between India and Vietnam, Phillip Nova's Lim said the latter poses a bigger risk given its lower tariff rate of 20%, more competitive labour costs and proximity to China. Crucially, Vietnam also has one of the world's largest rare earth deposits, he added.
Nevertheless, he noted that both Vietnam and India have less mature ecosystems than Malaysia, particularly in the outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (Osat) space.
'Both still face challenges such as talent availability and infrastructure development. Hence, as the semiconductor space becomes more globally competitive, we believe market share erosion will be gradual, not abrupt.
'Volume relocations by US companies are very unlikely in the near term,' Lim said.
Lim is of the view that if the 25% tariff remains post Aug 1, Malaysia's electrical and electronics exports, and consequently semiconductor players, could take a hit, as supporting industries like raw materials, industrial components and machinery remain subject to tariff.
He added that the structural drivers for artificial intelligence or AI remains intact, and demand for Osat is likely to grow as more advanced chips hit the market.
'Provided the exemptions for semiconductors remain, Malaysia's key role in the global semiconductor supply chain is unlikely to take much of a hit, even with rising competition from neighbours like Vietnam,' he said.