California vs. Mississippi State predictions, picks for 2025 women's NCAA Tournament
California vs. Mississippi State predictions, picks for 2025 women's NCAA Tournament It's Cal vs. Mississippi State in the 2025 NCAA Tournament first round. See our expert picks and predictions for the women's March Madness bracket, along with betting odds and game time.
Show Caption
Hide Caption
Women's NCAA March Madness: Keys to a deep run
Local reporters break down some of the top teams, and their keys to victory in the 2025 March Madness tournament.
The 2025 NCAA women's tournament is here, folks.
Among the first-round action Saturday night will be a matchup between California and Mississippi State.
The California Golden Bears finished the 2024-25 season with a 25-8 record, good for seventh in the ACC. That earned them an 8 seed in the 2025 women's March Madness bracket. Their opponent, the Mississippi State Bulldogs, was 21-11 and picked up a 9 seed.
California is ranked 30th in the country in efficiency by Barttorvik, while Mississippi State is ranked 35th.
Here's how our experts see Thursday's Round of 64 clash playing out. Be sure to check out USA TODAY's complete March Madness bracket breakdown for in-depth analysis. While you're at it, don't forget to read our tournament upset picks and players who could make a splash.
Without further ado, here are our California vs. Mississippi State picks and predictions.
California vs. Mississippi State picks and predictions
Sam Sklar, The Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State 79, California 76
Mississippi State 79, California 76 Sklar writes in the Clarion Ledger: "Mississippi State could have the advantage with its depth. Cal has three players that play more than 30 minutes per game compared to only one for Mississippi State. That's where MSU center Madina Okot could tilt the game. If she can have a dominant performance in the post that causes foul trouble for Cal, the Bulldogs could be in a good spot."
USA TODAY: Experts 4-1 for California
Experts 4-1 for California Liam Rooney, Tallahassee Democrat: Mississippi State
Mississippi State Cory Diaz, The Daily Advertiser: California
California Tom Noie, South Bend Tribune: California
California vs. Mississippi State date, start time, how to watch
Game Day: Saturday, March 22, 2025
Saturday, March 22, 2025 Game Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
5:30 p.m. ET Location: Galen Center in Los Angeles, California
Galen Center in Los Angeles, California TV Channel: ESPN2
ESPN2 Live Stream: Fubo - Watch Now!
Watch California vs. Mississippi State on Fubo
California vs. Mississippi State odds
Odds via BetMGM as of Thursday, March 20.
Spread: California -1.5
California -1.5 Moneyline Favorite: California -130
California -130 Moneyline Underdog: Mississippi State +110
Mississippi State +110 Total: 145.5
We occasionally recommend interesting products and services. If you make a purchase by clicking one of the links, we may earn an affiliate fee. USA TODAY Network newsrooms operate independently, and this doesn't influence our coverage.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
New York Times
19 minutes ago
- New York Times
How three MLB pitchers, including Spencer Strider, are faring in their returns from injuries
A little over two months into the season, pitchers are returning from injury and working to reestablish themselves in their respective rotations. In this column, I'll focus on three starters — Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Strider and Tony Gonsolin — who are coming back from surgery. I'll check in to see how they've looked so far and explore what lies ahead for them in 2025. Advertisement McCullers returned to the majors this year for the first time since the end of 2022. He underwent right elbow surgery and experienced a setback in his recovery, delaying his return to the mound. Through six games started this season, he has a 3.93 FIP, 29% strikeout rate, and 11% walk rate. The two major differences I am seeing from McCullers are in his velocity and command. Starting with his velocity, his fastball average has decreased from 93 mph in 2022 to 91-92 mph. His cutter and changeup are back at about 87 mph, and his slider is down from 85 mph to 83 mph. His slider is his primary weapon against right-handed hitters, followed by his sinker. He has not been as effective against righties this season compared to pre-injury (5.31 FIP vs. 3.81 FIP in his career). This is likely due to command inconsistencies, which may be related to mechanical adjustments made after surgery. This has impacted his ability to locate both the sinker and the slider effectively, as well as the results of each pitch, leading to huge reverse splits. McCullers is throwing his slider 6% less against righties so far this season, but it is still his go-to pitch. Despite adding movement on the pitch (+2 inches of depth and sweep), it is getting … To understand why the slider isn't performing as well, we also need to examine McCullers' other major weapon against righties — his sinker. The sinker is getting more chase this season compared to pre-injury results. However, it has resulted in the most damage, with a poor 68% hard-hit rate and a .597 xSLG. One thing McCullers did really well pre-injury was use both sides of the plate. Looking at his heat maps from 2022, he mixed the location of his sinker and focused on the outer edge with the slider. This season, his slider is ending up higher and middle more frequently, and he is not throwing his sinker inside at the same rate. A good sign, however, is that during his June 3 start, he showed better command of his sinker. He was throwing it inside more frequently, like he had pre-injury: An interesting observation from that start is that McCullers also avoided throwing the sinker to the bottom of the zone. Pre-injury, sinkers to the bottom third of the zone resulted in ground balls. However, McCullers has not been generating ground balls at the same rate. The heat map below shows the location of the sinkers that were hard-hit so far this season, most of them being in the lower third: My theory for the reduction of ground balls is that the velocity is impacting the effectiveness of the pitch lower in the zone, allowing hitters to square the ball up better. Adjusting this location based on the results is a step in the right direction for McCullers. His slider command is still a work in progress, but ideally, he'll get it back to the lower, outer edge, as he has in years past. Advertisement Against lefties, he is throwing his knuckle curve 21% less. This is a big change because the knuckle curve was his go-to pitch against lefties pre-injury. It is a strong pitch with above-average movement, above-average velocity and good results throughout his career. Despite its limited usage, McCullers is still doing very well against lefties, with a 2.44 FIP (vs. 2.91 in his career). Additionally, in his June 3 start, McCullers threw the knuckle curve a season-high 40% of the time. This is a good sign that he is starting to feel more confident in the command of this pitch. McCullers still has work to do in terms of regaining his command, but he is showing signs he is on the right track. If he can remain healthy, he can continue to have the same success and return to a reliable mid-rotation starter. Strider missed most of the 2024 season and the beginning of this season due to undergoing arm surgery (UCL) and experiencing a setback. As a result, he's been limited to only four starts so far this season with a 6.39 FIP, 23% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate. Strider's fastball has always been his go-to pitch against both righties and lefties, and that hasn't changed. At 98 mph with plus ride in 2023, the pitch was among the best in baseball. His secondary was the slider to both hands, with an occasional changeup to lefties. He was able to get away with throwing the two pitches the majority of the time due to their exceptional velocity and shape. Post injury, Strider has a lower arm slot (going from high three-quarters to three-quarters), and his pitch shapes look a little different. He's added movement to all of them: He's also added a curveball and has been mixing it in rarely against lefties. The two areas Strider needs to continue working on are his velocity (which has decreased by 2 mph across the board) and his command. As a mainly two-pitch pitcher, command is vital to Strider's success, especially now that he has lost velocity. His game plan this season remains very similar to years past and is predictable. Looking at the tables below, we can see Strider relies on his four-seamer in every count against righties, and most counts against lefties. Data from Baseball Savant Now that the pitches have declined in velocity and he is not commanding them as effectively, he is not getting the same results. His four-seamer is getting 17% less in-zone miss and 6% less chase. His slider is getting 15% less chase and 24% fewer ground balls. Both pitches are also getting hit harder and resulting in more damage. Advertisement His control and command are integral to his future success. In terms of control, his zone rate and first pitch strike rate are at career lows. In terms of command against righties, he is still doing a good job of locating his four-seamer up in the zone, but the same cannot be said for his slider. His slider is missing its location and breaking out of the zone. He is not getting chase on the pitch as a result. He needs to tweak the location and land it in-zone for it to start getting swings again. Against lefties, he is locating the slider well in the lower third of the zone. He is also locating his four-seamer well on the outer edge of the zone, but he is leaving too many over the middle. In 2023, when the pitch was better, he was able to get away with pounding the zone (even the heart) with the pitch, as it would still generate miss. This season, the four-seamer has a poor .571 xSLG allowed. Strider is still in the beginning stages of his return from injury. Looking ahead, he can no longer rely only on dominant stuff to be successful. If he can get the velocity back to where it was, or at least start locating better, there is a path to better results. Gonsolin was placed on the injured list on Saturday, June 7, due to right elbow discomfort, which is likely the reason he has struggled in his past few starts. However, I wrote this section about three days before his injury and still believe it is relevant for why he has not performed as hoped so far. After missing the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery and having a delayed 2025 start due to a back injury, Gonsolin has a 5.96 FIP, 24% strikeout rate, and 12% walk rate through seven starts. Gonsolin's velocity is back to where it was in 2022, which is great news. He's also added some movement on his pitches. His four-seamer now has more run, his curveball more sweep and his splitter more depth. His primary areas for improvement are in his mechanics/pitch tunneling and his command and control. Starting with his mechanics, Gonsolin's arm slot is down 5 degrees from a high three-quarters slot to his three-quarters slot of 2022. He also threw from this slot in 2023 but struggled that season with an ankle injury and forearm inflammation. Advertisement This slot adjustment is affecting his control and his pitch tunneling. In terms of control, Gonsolin's below-average 12% walk rate is up from his average 7% walk rate in 2022. In terms of tunneling, Gonsolin has not been able to tunnel his pitches as effectively. Tunneling pitches provides deception and makes it more challenging for hitters to read pitches out of hand. This season, we are seeing a greater separation between his pitches on the way to the plate. Looking at the graphics from Baseball Savant below, the pitches had a much tighter tunnel in 2022 (left) before reaching the plate. Diving into his mix, Gonsolin's been throwing his slider less this season against righties and increased the usage of his splitter and curveball. The reduction in the usage of the slider makes sense, as the splitter is proving to be more effective. Looking at the slider location this season compared to 2022, the locations are much more inconsistent, and he is not getting the pitch up as frequently. As a result, the slider is generating 38% fewer ground balls than in 2022, has a poor 50% hard-hit rate and a .539 xSLG. The splitter, on the other hand, is getting 14% more in-zone miss compared to 2022 and has maintained the same ground ball rate. It also has an elite 0.033 xSLG and 47% whiff rate. This is because Gonsolin has been able to command it consistently: This change in pitch usage is helping Gonsolin stay competitive against right-handed batters. His 4.51 FIP this season against righties is very close to his career 4.42 FIP. The same cannot be said against lefties (7.36 FIP this season vs. 3.90 in his career). Looking at his usage, Gonsolin is throwing the four-seamer slightly more and the splitter less against lefties this season. While the four-seamer and curveball are still getting chase, the splitter is being chased 20% less. Many of the splitters are ending up too far below the zone to fool hitters. That being said, the contact quality of all three pitches has been well below average. While the tunneling and command remain components of why these results have not been better, for the most part, the pitch locations have been competitive. After reviewing video of the hard-hit balls Gonsolin has given up to lefties, it becomes clear that they are limited to above-average hitters such as Juan Soto, Ben Rice and Kyle Stowers. While ideally, Gonsolin could get every hitter out, this is not as big of a red flag as the command and tunneling issues discussed earlier. There are some promising pieces here, but reestablishing pitch tunneling and improving control and command are key steps required before Gonsolin returns to his pre-injury success. (Top photo of Spencer Strider: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
USA Today
27 minutes ago
- USA Today
Cal Raleigh Player Props: June 9, Mariners vs. Diamondbacks
Cal Raleigh Player Props: June 9, Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Cal Raleigh will try for another explosive showing, after he mashed two homers in his most recent game, when his Seattle Mariners play Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday at 9:40 p.m. ET. Find odds, stats, and more below to make your Cal Raleigh player prop bets. Raleigh paces the Mariners in home runs (26) and runs batted in (53). Among hitters in MLB, Raleigh ranks first in home runs and sixth in RBI. Raleigh brings a four-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is hitting .350 with a double, three home runs, a walk and eight RBIs. Watch tonight's Mariners game on Fubo! Cal Raleigh Prop Bets and Odds Hits Prop: 0.5 hits (Over odds: -189) 0.5 hits (Over odds: -189) Home Runs Prop: 0.5 home runs (Over odds: +300) 0.5 home runs (Over odds: +300) RBI Prop: 0.5 RBI (Over odds: +120) 0.5 RBI (Over odds: +120) Runs Prop: 0.5 runs (Over odds: +100) 0.5 runs (Over odds: +100) Total Bases Prop: 1.5 total bases (Over odds: +120) 1.5 total bases (Over odds: +120) Stolen Bases Prop: 0.5 stolen bases (Over odds: +950) How to Watch Seattle Mariners vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Matchup: Seattle Mariners vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Seattle Mariners vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Time: 9:40 p.m. ET 9:40 p.m. ET Date: Monday, June 9, 2025 Monday, June 9, 2025 TV Channel: Fox Sports 1, ARID and ROOT Sports NW Fox Sports 1, ARID and ROOT Sports NW Live Stream: Fubo (Watch now! - Regional restrictions may apply) Cal Raleigh vs. Merrill Kelly Over his career against Merrill Kelly, Raleigh is 0 for 3. Cal Raleigh prop bet insights Raleigh has recorded a hit 46 times this season in 63 games played (73.0%), including 16 multi-hit games (25.4%). He has homered in 33.3% of his games this season (63 contests), leaving the ballpark in 9.5% of his trips to the dish. Raleigh has scored at least one run in 49.2% of his games this year (31 of 63), with two or more runs scored in 12 of them (19.0%). He has plated at least one run in 27 of 63 games this year (42.9%), with more than one RBI in 17 of those contests (27.0%). Raleigh has struck out in 46 of 63 games this year, with multiple punchouts in 23 of them. MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Monday at 2:16 p.m. ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub. Cal Raleigh stats against the Diamondbacks Diamondbacks starter: Merrill Kelly
USA Today
27 minutes ago
- USA Today
Kyle Stowers Player Props: June 9, Marlins vs. Pirates
Kyle Stowers Player Props: June 9, Marlins vs. Pirates Kyle Stowers has his sights set on a better performance after going hitless in his last game (0-for-1). He and the Miami Marlins face the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday, who will send out Mike Burrows to start, at 6:40 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1, SportsNet PT and FDSFL. Find odds, stats, and more below to make your Kyle Stowers player prop bets. Stowers has a team-high 10 home runs and 33 runs batted in. Among all hitters in baseball, Stowers' home run total ranks 46th and his RBI tally ranks 59th. Watch tonight's Marlins game on Fubo! Kyle Stowers Prop Bets and Odds Hits Prop: 0.5 hits (Over odds: -222) 0.5 hits (Over odds: -222) Home Runs Prop: 0.5 home runs (Over odds: +425) 0.5 home runs (Over odds: +425) RBI Prop: 0.5 RBI (Over odds: +140) 0.5 RBI (Over odds: +140) Runs Prop: 0.5 runs (Over odds: +110) 0.5 runs (Over odds: +110) Total Bases Prop: 1.5 total bases (Over odds: +115) 1.5 total bases (Over odds: +115) Stolen Bases Prop: 0.5 stolen bases (Over odds: +1350) How to Watch Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Matchup: Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Time: 6:40 p.m. ET 6:40 p.m. ET Date: Monday, June 9, 2025 Monday, June 9, 2025 TV Channel: Fox Sports 1, SportsNet PT and FDSFL Fox Sports 1, SportsNet PT and FDSFL Live Stream: Fubo (Watch now! - Regional restrictions may apply) Kyle Stowers vs. Mike Burrows Kyle Stowers prop bet insights Stowers has a hit in 38 out of 58 games this year (65.5%), with at least two hits in 14 of them (24.1%). He has hit a long ball in 12.1% of his games this season (58 contests), going deep in 4.3% of his trips to the dish. Stowers has touched home plate at least one time 19 times this season in 58 games played (32.8%), including four multi-run scoring contests (6.9%). In 31.0% of his 58 games this season, he has produced a run (18 times). He's also notched eight games with multiple RBI in 2025 (13.8%) and driven in three or more of his team's runs in three contests. Stowers has gone down on strikes one or more times 42 times this season in 58 games played (72.4%), including 22 multi-strikeout contests (37.9%). MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Monday at 2:14 p.m. ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub. Kyle Stowers stats against the Pirates Pirates starter: Mike Burrows
