BJP's bypoll reality check: Central ambitions need stronger local groundwork

India Today

28-06-2025

The June 23 verdict of the assembly bypolls has come as a warning bell for the BJP, signalling how the party's state machineries are grappling to keep pace with the central leadership's ambitions.In four corners of the country—Punjab, Gujarat, West Bengal and Kerala—the bypolls offered the BJP a chance to test its mettle, and offered valuable lessons, albeit learnt the hard way. The results show the BJP will need to quickly strengthen its base in Punjab, Bengal and Kerala—the latter two states going to assembly polls next year.advertisementIn Punjab's Ludhiana West seat, the bypoll defeat was a lesson in timing and focus. Jiwan Gupta, whose candidature was announced rather late, was launched into a campaign already defined by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) versus Congress agenda. Gupta failed to carve out space for himself. The contest quickly turned into a direct clash between the ruling AAP's Sanjeev Arora and Congress candidate Bharat Bhushan Ashu, shaped as much by ideology as local grievances.Gupta, hamstrung by a delayed announcement and a slowofftheblocks campaign, could neither break into that agenda nor benefit from the massive factionalism consuming the Congress in the state. It's a lost opportunity for the BJP, and the party has its own mismanagement to blame. The victorious AAP, with its sharply-defined messaging and wellentrenched ground campaign, turned BJP's disarray to its advantage.advertisement
BJP-ruled Gujarat offered its own paradox. The party retained its grip on Kadi, with candidate Rajendra Chavda relying on deep ground connections and a long record of delivery. Yet, just a few hundred kilometres away, in Visavadar, the BJP was punished for complacency. Its candidate, Kirit Patel, failed to rally the Patidar base.Up against AAP's Gopal Italia, a candidate adept at converting caste pride into a rallying point, the BJP discovered that caste loyalty can no longer be taken for granted, especially when combined with an energetic campaign. Visavadar showed Gujarat's electoral terrain may well be shifting a bit: the BJP can still win with trusted names and its strong ground game, but the decades of statewide dominance could be tested at every step from here on.Bengal's Kaliganj seat revealed the limits of identitycentric campaigns. Candidate Ashish Ghosh had framed the race as a test of religious assertion, trying to rally Hindu voters in a state long accustomed to the BJP's polarising tactics. However, Alifa Ahmed and her Trinamool Congress (TMC) presented a counternarrative rooted in inclusion and deep local connections. The margin of defeat, combined with a noticeable erosion of the BJP's vote-share, reflected how communal lines can harden core bases while failing to win over sceptical or fence-sitting voters.advertisementKerala's Nilambur seat told its own story. The BJP experimented with Mohan George, an attempt to connect with the Christian community. The campaign was cautious, lowkey, relying more on quiet overtures than overt displays of strength. The result was instructive: breakthroughs in such terrain require deep, sustained groundwork, not tactical gestures confined to a single election cycle.All in all, these results are more than a set of individual defeats and victories. They signal shifts in the ground that the BJP is fighting upon. In state after state, the party discovered that its central narratives—nationalism, identity, promise of bigticket development—can only carry it so far if the local campaign fails to adapt. The Punjab result, in particular, is a lesson in candidate choices and campaign timing, a reminder that discontent with an incumbent government may not always be a recipe for electoral success.For the BJP, the bypoll verdict was a dipstick test of its organisational discipline and ability to read the mood on the ground in four states. The results show the party can no longer win by assuming that its state units can coast on the momentum generated by Delhi. In an era where every seat is contested like a minigeneral election, the BJP must rediscover the precision, urgency and resonance that brought it to national dominance in the first place.advertisementSubscribe to India Today Magazine- Ends