How the Guardians can climb back into contention in the American League

New York Times

14-07-2025

CLEVELAND — As of Sunday evening, FanGraphs assigned the Cleveland Guardians a 10.7 percent chance of snagging a playoff berth. Those are the 11th-best odds among the 15 teams in the messy, crowded American League.
So you're saying there's a ch— it's not going to be easy. Only the Chicago White Sox and Athletics are really, truly out of the wild-card race. The Orioles have been mired in the AL East basement for a while and, rightfully, seem like soon-to-be sellers, but even they're only a few games behind the Guardians.
Advertisement
There's time to make a move, though. So, let's ignore those playoff odds for a moment and chart a path back to legitimate contention for the 46-49 Guardians.
Oh, well, that seems easy enough.
The Guardians own the 28th-best OPS in the league, ahead of only the White Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates. Beyond All-Stars José Ramírez and Steven Kwan, their next most dependable hitter is … Kyle Manzardo? After that, um, Nolan Jones, maybe? Carlos Santana? This shouldn't be so difficult to answer. The lineup has been begging for some fresh blood for weeks. For this exercise, that can't remain the case. The Guardians have been playing at a self-designed disadvantage.
Even if Chase DeLauter and/or C.J. Kayfus endure a rocky transition to the majors, they'd still offer more of a threat at the plate than, say, Will Wilson or Johnathan Rodriguez have (assuming DeLauter checks out OK this week once he's evaluated for wrist soreness). The upside, on the other hand, is that the Guardians have better answers to the prompt above. If they have to move on from Santana to create space for a big league-ready prospect, that might be beneficial both in the present and future tenses. Santana has a .688 OPS and 40 birthday candles to blow out next spring.
Steven has the second half in his crosshairs.#GuardsBall | #GuardiWWins pic.twitter.com/zITYF2XSEG
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) July 13, 2025
So, find a role for DeLauter or Kayfus, and start plotting how Juan Brito can help in September. Give daily opportunities to Manzardo and Jones, and anyone else finding a rhythm. Pray that Lane Thomas can get healthy and find his old ways. And, hey, don't be afraid to get a head start on the offseason to-do list and survey the market for a controllable hitter this month. After all, it's not like they're magically going to arrive at spring training in 2026 with nine everyday starters ready to form an offensive juggernaut.
Advertisement
This is a front office that, no matter the team's position in the standings, likes to entertain such a trade. In 2021, for instance, as they shipped out César Hernández, Jordan Luplow and Eddie Rosario, they tried to convince the Pirates to hand over Bryan Reynolds. Instead, they acquired Myles Straw. Whoops.
It's looking like a mid-August return for Bieber, who is scheduled to start in the Arizona Complex League on Tuesday. If he avoids further setbacks (and assuming he opts out of his 2026 option), the Guardians will pay him $14 million for, oh, about eight starts. If they can tack on some postseason assignments to his workload, they'll deem it a sufficient investment.
The rotation has carried this team for weeks, and that must continue. Since June 1, Cleveland's rotation ranks fifth in the majors in ERA. Slade Cecconi has flourished. Gavin Williams has taken steps forward. Tanner Bibee, the de facto ace entering the season, has the highest ERA in Cleveland's rotation, though he has expressed confidence in recent weeks that his output will improve the rest of the way.
If Bieber can deliver anything close to what Matthew Boyd provided last year upon his return from Tommy John surgery — and if Luis Ortiz doesn't set foot in Progressive Field again in 2025 — a quintet of Bieber, Bibee, Williams, Cecconi and Logan Allen should be solid enough.
In this scenario, there's no Emmanuel Clase trade, because the Guardians need to lean on their bullpen the way they did last season. Contenders have been inquiring about his availability, and the Guardians could mull whether it's worth flipping him for some future lineup help. But in this exercise, the club can claw back into the race in part by delaying a potential Clase trade until winter, when he'll still have three years of team control remaining.
Advertisement
No, instead, the Guardians would keep Clase for the summer and fall and trust that he, Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith can repeat their dominance from a year ago in the second half. Of course, those are unfairly lofty expectations; the 2024 bullpen was historically proficient. This is where the loss of Andrew Walters to season-ending surgery, Franco Aleman's Triple-A struggles and Tim Herrin's inconsistency are proving costly. All three were intended to provide mid- or late-inning insurance this year. Instead, there's been a lot of Matt Festa.
Cleveland's lineup isn't talented enough to fuel the team to frequent lopsided wins, so if the Guardians are going to get on a roll, they'll be regularly summoning their top relievers to protect narrow leads. They need more than three consistent relievers for that sort of task.
Nic Enright and Erik Sabrowski deserve more opportunities to gain entry to Stephen Vogt's circle of trust. Paul Sewald, now healthy, will factor into the equation. This team, however, could still use another arm in high-leverage situations, whether a more efficient Herrin or Joey Cantillo, or even an outsider. (Don't look up Trevor Stephan's Triple-A stats if you have a sensitive stomach.) It wouldn't be the worst idea to scour the relief market and see if anyone piques their interest, either a rental who wouldn't cost anything substantial, or a long-term option (think the Royals' acquisition of Lucas Erceg last summer) who could stick around if Clase is dealt over the offseason.
They rebounded from their 10-game skid with a strong road trip through Houston and Chicago to close the half. Now it's time to flex their muscle against what should be inferior competition. They have three against the Athletics, four against the Orioles, three at the Royals and three against the Rockies to close out July. Can they go 9-4? There are winnable series in August, too, against the Twins, White Sox, Marlins, Braves, Diamondbacks and Rangers.
And, sure, those same teams are noticing the Guardians on their schedules and thinking, 'Hmm, here's a chance to win a series against a feeble opponent.' But all the Guardians have to do is follow this foolproof plan, and they'll make those clubs feel foolish for underestimating a team that toyed around in the first half only to turn it on when it matters most. They'll force them to watch as they speed past the Royals and Rangers and Twins and Angels and Rays and Mariners and anyone else standing between them and a ticket to October. What could go wrong?
(Top photo of Steven Kwan (38) and José Ramírez: Tim Warner / Getty Images)