Real winners, losers of Trump's tariffs

The Sun

13 hours ago

PRESIDENT Donald Trump has single-handedly pushed countries closer towards a new world order that will be different from the present American and Western-dominated one.
As Trump brags to the American public about the latest 'gains' from his transactional foreign policy using tariffs as his bazooka, impacted countries have begun to look closely at the concessions they have been compelled to make.
Meanwhile, their media and public are debating whether their country's negotiating team has done well or badly in protecting the national interest. They are also quietly preparing for how they can fight back against this unprecedented threat to the world economy.
For now, the latest iteration of Trump's still escalatory unilateral tariffs appears to be hurting long-established US allies, including in Asia, the hardest.
Key concessions/exemptions/ special conditions
Canada – USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement)-compliant goods are exempt. Lumber and dairy face potential tariffs of up to 250%. Transshipment violations risk a 40% penalty plus fines. Previous 25% auto tariffs have been partially suspended.
EU – Goods with an existing MFN (most favoured nation) tariff of 15% or higher will face no additional duties. Aerospace exclusions are under negotiation and investment commitments are anticipated.
India – No measures announced; no agreement reached.
Japan – Committed to purchasing US goods; auto tariffs suspended. Deal framework announced, with details still being finalised.
South Korea – Committed to investments in the US.
UK – Aerospace products exempted; formal deal signed. Baseline rate applies pending sector-specific agreements.
Indonesia – Tariff reduced from the initial 32%; agreement includes undisclosed investment terms.
Malaysia – Reduced from initial 24%; deal announced but details incomplete.
Philippines – Tariff increased from the initial 17%; agricultural purchases pledged. Deal announced but details remain incomplete.
Vietnam – Tariff reduced from the initial 46%; investment commitments made. Formal deal framework established.
The biggest loser
Based on current information, India stands to be the biggest loser from the new US tariffs as it faces the most severe increase among all countries.
A new 25% tariff on Indian goods, on top of an existing 25% duty, brings the total tariff to 50%. This move is a response to India's continued purchases of Russian oil.
Analysts have warned that the latest tariff rate could reduce India's outbound shipments to the US by up to 60% and potentially shave off about 1% from its GDP.
Canada is also facing a high tariff rate. Products that do not comply with USMCA are subject to a 40% tariff. This is a significant increase and could disrupt supply chains. While it is higher than the rates for the EU, Japan and South Korea, it is lower than the total tariff India is facing.
The EU, Japan and South Korea are key US trading partners and geopolitical allies. These three have been hit with a new tariff rate of 15%. While it is a substantial increase over earlier rates, it is still lower compared to Canada and India.
All three have secured trade deals that cap tariffs at this rate, marking a significant improvement over the higher rates previously threatened. However, the additional purchase and investment conditions imposed – deemed 'extortions' by some of their political leaders – make these agreements considerably more costly than they initially appear.
From a broader geopolitical perspective, the US could end up the biggest loser in what Trump and his Republican team claim is a historic opportunity to reset the global trading and economic system in America's favour. Their claims, made in relation to 'Making America Great Again', include raising new federal revenue to address chronic deficits, pressuring domestic and international businesses to relocate their factories to the US and compelling countries to increase their imports of American goods and services.
However, the majority of US economists – mainstream and progressive – disagree with the claim that tariffs are a net benefit to the American economy or consumer.
While Trump's administration argues that tariffs protect domestic industries, economic consensus holds that tariffs will ultimately harm the US economy.
Economists warn that the costs of tariffs are largely borne by American businesses and consumers through higher prices and reduced purchasing power.
Furthermore, they contend that tariffs can lead to slower economic growth, decreased efficiency and innovation by shielding domestic companies from competition, as well as result in job losses in industries that rely on imported goods or are targeted by retaliatory tariffs from other countries.
Winner on the geopolitical front
Even if successful in the short run on the trade and revenue front, the tariff war has alienated allies and resulted in significant geopolitical losses for the US.
Rather than strengthening the US position, these tariffs have strained relationships with Europe and Asia, which have been treated as economic adversaries or, at best, economic pawns. This transactional approach to foreign policy has eroded respect, trust and cooperation, particularly within alliances designed to counter the rise of China, Russia and other BRIC countries, whom Trump identifies as hostile adversaries.
By alienating partners such as Canada, the EU, Mexico and countries in the Asia-Pacific region and forcing them to pay exorbitant sums or to seek alternative trade relationships, the US has weakened the very coalitions that are crucial for its prosperity, dominance and strategic interests.
Overall, the tariff wars have not only isolated the US economically and geopolitically but have also strengthened China's position as a rival trade and geopolitical leader while eroding American soft power and multilateral credibility.