High taxes, a recession: my fears for young job hunters in Scotland

Times

5 days ago

I started employing my latest assistant in March this year and for reliability, productivity, speed and all-round knowledge, he's hard to beat. Unfailingly polite and endlessly resourceful, he's settled into my small in-house team of seven with ease. Everyone loves him.
Although he is only five months old and his background is unknown, he's already indispensable. He is, of course, one of the new autonomous artificial intelligence agents — otherwise known as agentic AI.
This is one of the first publicly available AI agents capable of independent planning, decision-making and real-world task execution without requiring detailed human oversight. In beta mode and available by invitation only — codes were changing hands for $1,000 recently — it is a glimpse of a future that is awe-inspiring and terrifying in equal measure.
For the time being, I'm ignoring the fact that I've had to hand over a lot of personal information to gain access (admittedly much of it already available online) and that very little is known about the Chinese start-up behind the technology. It is simply too valuable a tool and I'm already hooked. Agentic AI is turbocharging technical aspects of my business that other AI tools simply can't reach.
I'm an optimist about the advent of AI. Or I should say, I'm an optimist about humanity. Such tools can, and are, being used for destructive purposes. But this is the best argument for not withdrawing from research. If the good guys slow down, they simply hand advantage to the bad actors.
I understand the arguments against AI that end with humanity facing Armageddon. But mankind is perfectly capable of orchestrating its own destruction without the use of artificial intelligence. We just have to look at Gaza and Ukraine to be reminded of the depth of human depravity. Meanwhile AI is already saving lives.
All progress has provoked moral panic. From the coming of the railways to Elvis wiggling his hips. And while my new AI assistant sometimes leaves me feeling like an 18th-century peasant contemplating the wonders of the internal combustion engine, I know that it is actual intelligence combined with AI that gives us the breakthroughs and competitive edge we need.
While the AI assistant can code, I still need to employ my full-stack developer to implement, evaluate and interpret the results.
But what is certainly true is that AI is contributing to an upcoming economic upheaval for which Scotland is wholly unprepared. A toxic combination of political decisions by the Labour government at Westminster and the SNP government in Scotland, a mental health crisis among millennials and Gen Zs and weak economic growth have the potential to tip the country into recession.
This month, the accountancy firm EY reported that Scotland's high income tax rates were seen as the main barrier to expansion in Scotland's financial services industry, which contributes about 10 per cent of the Scottish economy by value.
All Scottish workers earning more than £30,318 pay more income tax than their English counterparts and the highest band is set at 48 per cent for Scotland compared with 45 per cent for the rest of the UK.
The job market is being squeezed from both ends. According to McKinsey & Co, the number of job vacancies online fell by 31 per cent in the three months to May, compared with the same period in 2022, the year that ChatGPT was launched. Research from KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation revealed that hiring fell in June at the fastest pace in almost two years.
Sluggish growth and higher interest rates have been blamed but in occupations at entry level across all industries, including graduate traineeships and apprentices, jobs are disappearing at an alarming rate.
The last apprentice I hired was unable to address an envelope and had no idea what a stamp was. She had a HNC in 'collective dance, specialising in hip-hop' and was about as prepared for the world of work as your average pigeon. She lasted three months. Somebody within the education system had let her down badly.
Young people will be most seriously affected by the storm that is coming. They are also the group facing the biggest mental health crisis. In Scotland more than one million adults report that anxiety interferes with daily life. Gen Z and young millennials lose up to 60 days of productivity per year due to mental health issues compared with 36 days for older colleagues. The number of Scots out of work because of sickness and disability is at its highest level in 20 years and the number claiming disability payments in Scotland is set to almost double by 2030.
Labour's plans under the Employment Rights Bill to remove the two-year qualifying period for key rights such as protection against unfair dismissal, parental leave and statutory sick pay, mean that many SMEs will not risk hiring staff without experience or a track record.
That's if the SMEs stay in business. Confidence is at a low ebb. One in five small businesses believe they will be forced out of business if conditions don't improve. According to the Federation of Small Businesses, 27 per cent of business owners believe their company will downsize, be sold or close in the next 12 months. For the first time in 15 years, pessimism has outweighed optimism. Even profitable SMEs wonder if the juice is still worth the squeeze.
The government is not protecting the jobs we do have. The closure of the Grangemouth refinery and the threat by bus manufacturer Alexander Dennis to move Scottish production to Scarborough could lead to 400 jobs lost in the Falkirk area. Add in jobs lost in the supply chain and the number rises to four figures.
Both companies have foreign ownership, which rather dampens enthusiasm for the SNP government's boast that Scotland punches above its weight for inward investment.
The Grangemouth closure and a sharp fall in manufacturing output drove a 0.4 per cent GDP decline in the three months up to May. About 80 per cent of leisure and hospitality businesses believe the Scottish economy will decline this year. John Swinney has mentioned a possible Scottish recession, blaming US tariffs.
Even without a recession, growth is weak and Scottish economic activity is fragile. Even boom sectors such as renewables are facing cuts. At least one of the country's largest employers has just cut nearly all its graduate jobs for the present cohort reaching the end of their two-year training stint.
Recent recessions have not brought the same level of job losses that the UK experienced in the 1990s and before. But that is set to change, and we are not prepared. This will affect a generation, already struggling post-pandemic, for most of their lives.
The Scottish government has deliberately and negligently failed to promote the nation's economic wellbeing at the expense of ideology which a majority of voters do not share. As Harold Macmillan pointed out, it is 'events, dear boy' that bring down governments. But it is policy decisions that cripple countries.