John Curtice weighs in on Corbyn-Sultana party threat to Keir Starmer
A senior Labour source told the New Statesman that it was 'not inconceivable' that Starmer, Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood could all be booted out by their constituents in 2029.
At the last election, Starmer's vote almost halved, Streeting's majority was reduced to just 528 votes while Mahmood's vote fell by 53%, all facing pro-Palestine independent challengers.
Asked whether the trio were at risk, Curtice, of Strathclyde University, told The National: 'Of course it's not inconceivable, just look at the size of their majorities and look at how far Labour's vote's fallen.'
He added that his assessment of the data showed it 'wasn't clear that Labour were making much of a recovery' in constituencies with large numbers of Muslim voters.
Pro-Palestine independents took four seats at the last election, most notably Labour bigwig Jonathan Ashworth's defeat at the hands of Shockat Adam in Leicester South.
But Curtice said that the Corbyn-Sultana party could face challenges along the way, highlighting what he identified as mistakes during Corbyn's time as Labour leader.
READ MORE: SNP to press ahead with Palestine recognition vote as Labour 'bargaining' with Israel
He said: 'Corbyn clearly has the ability to enthuse a section of the electorate. But does he have the ability to provide leadership?'
He pointed to Corbyn's stance on Brexit in the run-up to the 2019 vote, when he said he would grant a second referendum but backed neither Leave nor Remain.
'On an issue that was clearly polarising the electorate and when Boris Johnson was clearly milking the votes on one side, that was just politically utterly the wrong strategy,' said Curtice.
'Corbyn is a sincere politician with a number of very clear beliefs which he can communicate well, he's got that art and he's got that art much more than Starmer does. But leadership is also about being able to take folk who are not your natural supporters with you.'
He also expressed doubt about the party's organisational capacity, noting their 'original announcement they couldn't manage to coordinate on'. Sultana appeared to have surprised Corbyn by announcing the launch of the new party, which he only confirmed the day after.
Curtice added: 'The crucial question is now: will the fight next year's local and devolved elections? Are they going to be up and ready? At the moment, they're engaging on a consultation about a name.'
He said that 'time was of the essence' if the party wanted to fight next year's devolved and local elections, which include London – a city which should be 'prime territory for Corbyn'.
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For any prime minister looking to make a break for it, there are major considerations to be made about the style, duration and location of a holiday. The Isles of Scilly are perfect: still part of the UK but feel more abroad than home. Failing that, there's Cornwall, where they treat you like you're foreign. Even that can be risky: I once almost ran over David Cameron in a vintage VW camper van. I was trying to navigate a narrow road through Polzeath when a man clutching a boogieboard suddenly stepped out in front of me, and I hit the brakes. Only I seemed to notice that the sun-kissed prime minister was there; everyone else was absorbed in their ice pops. It was during that same holiday, in 2013, that Cameron was spotted performing the age-old dad routine of awkwardly wriggling his way out of damp swimming shorts with a Mickey Mouse towel tied around his waist to protect his modesty. He also had to cut his Cornish jaunts short because of the terrible phone signal. 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So she took herself off for a walk, only to then see him tucking in to an ice cream, or a double helping of gateaux or a cream cake, depending on the version of the anecdote. On another holiday to Austria, she soon tired of relaxing and took a 90-minute visit to a chipboard factory in Klessheim. John Major kept his holidays low key, annually heading to the Spanish town of Candeleda. Years later they repaid his loyalty by naming the incongruously named road 'Avenida de John Major'. Tony Blair's jaunts were altogether more showy, relaxing in the gold-tapped villas of tan-tastic celebs such as Cliff Richard, and famously staying as the guest of Silvio Berlusconi, the baddie in a bandana. In 2004, during a five-a-side 'friendly' kickabout, Blair clattered into his host, leaving him hobbling and in need of medical attention. Gordon Brown's holidays were far less glamorous and not as lengthy. Weeks after becoming PM, he took the family to Dorset in the summer of 2007, only to announce he was returning to Downing Street the next day to deal with an outbreak of foot and mouth disease. A year later, he remained defiantly in work mode during a break in Southwold, Suffolk, parading about in a jacket and dark trousers. Friends later claimed that he hated every minute of it. It looked like it. [See also: Disdain and apathy in Washington DC] Then there are those who, perhaps with hindsight, might wish they had cut the holiday short. In August 2021, Dominic Raab was holidaying in Crete when Kabul fell to the Taliban. As foreign secretary, he angrily dismissed claims that he had been paddleboarding instead of focusing on the crisis as 'nonsense'. He famously explained: 'The sea was actually closed,' suggesting he might have had one eye on the cool blue Greek waters. Dashing back from a holiday to deal with a crisis is only possible if you know there is a crisis unfolding. 'London was literally burning,' Guto Harri recalls of the summer of 2011, when his boss, London mayor Boris Johnson, was out of the country. 'Terrible riots, looting, flames being projected around the world on TV screens, a major, major crisis. And the mayor – who had been at a desk almost non-stop since being elected – is in the middle of the Canadian Rockies in a sort of glorified camper van with his family, none of whom could actually drive the camper van, and about 300 miles from the nearest airport. So not an ideal situation.' The question of when to cut a trip early is a delicate one. Harri adds: 'On this occasion Boris and Theresa May did a sort of deal: 'If I go back, I'll let you know so that I don't show you up.' And they both agreed to that. But, of course, she rang him from an airport in Switzerland, and an hour and a half later, she was on the ground in London, and Boris was 300 miles from the nearest airport halfway around the world in Canada.' Sometimes a holiday can be the root cause of a disaster. In April 2017, May checked into the Penmaenuchaf Hall Hotel, Snowdonia. But she was not thinking about relaxing; she was thinking about gambling on a snap election. She lost her majority, and had an even bigger mountain to climb to try to deliver on whatever Brexit means Brexit meant. Holidays are good. Everyone needs them. In politics, though, they are frowned upon. How dare these people be enjoying a break with their families when I'm not. In part, politicians themselves are to blame: Cameron donned the hairshirt in opposition, promising to cut the cost of politics, before discovering it is quite hard for a cabinet minister to work on the bus. Starmer did it too, berating Sunak's helicopter use before realising that sitting in a traffic jam might not be the best use of time for a prime minister. The public want their politicians to do better, while treating them worse and worse. No perks, just purgatory. Yet consider this: Blair and Cameron, perhaps No 10's most assiduous holidaymakers this century were also its longest occupants. Cameron was furious when a friend told his biographers, Francis Elliott and James Hanning: 'If there was an Olympic gold medal for 'chillaxing', he would win it. He is capable of switching off in a way that almost no other politician I know of can.' Might that be preferable to the round-the-clock micro-managing of the Brown administration, early morning emails and late-night messages being fired out on the most obscure issues? None of us make good decisions when we're knackered, and most of us aren't making decisions on war and peace, life and death. As 'office holders' rather than employees, MPs have no annual leave entitlement. They get paid whether they work 365 days a year or zero. But as one in five now enjoy tiny majorities of under 5 per cent, many will probably feel compelled to spend the summer nursing their constituencies rather than a pina colada. Timing your break is crucial. The pros make a big show of constituency activity as soon as the Commons rises, then duck out for a fortnight, before returning to another round of local visits before anyone notices they were gone. Nigel Farage thought it safe to head abroad during parliamentary term-time this May, only to miss one of his biggest Commons opportunities when MPs debated the government's new deal with the EU, while he fired off posts on X, calling it little more than 'a surrender agreement'. It gave Starmer a chance to joke: 'There was no sign of him at the EU statement – he was the first through the e-gates somewhere in the south of France.' The following week, when it actually was half-term, Kemi Badenoch headed to Ibiza, only for Farage to make headlines on being the real opposition. The Tory leader had to interrupt her break to write an op-ed for the Mail from the White Island. (It's not known if she went the full Angela Rayner, who was filmed dancing by TV presenter Denise van Outen in the DJ box at the Hi nightclub while back home the PM was warning of tough times. Van Outen later apologised to 'Angela Raver'.) Lib Dem leader Ed Davey, meanwhile, spends so much time zipwiring, paddleboarding and building sandcastles in his day job that he will be looking forward to a quiet sitdown at home. For years Labour's Jess Phillips boasted about going to 'a Eurocamp in France with 24 other Brummies'. Her boss, Yvette Cooper, once joined her husband, Ed Balls, on a Sound of Music tour of Salzburg wearing lederhosen made from curtain material. Today's crop of politicians would be wise to learn from Winston Churchill. Holidaying on the French Riviera in 1934, he hurtled down a bright blue water slide on his back, head first, splashing with such ferocity that he lost his trunks. And it was all caught on camera, revealing rather more than his knees. 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