Turkey wants full use of Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline - Is Iraq interested?
Iraq has not responded yet to Ankara's proposal but analysts note that exporting 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) through that pipeline is not feasible since nearly 80 percent of Iraq's crude exports of 3.5 million barrels per day are destined to Asia.
In press comments last week, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said a new energy agreement between Turkey and Iraq must include a 'mechanism to ensure the full use of the oil pipeline between the two countries.
Last month, Turkey said the accord covering the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline would end in July 2026 and an Iraqi official said Turkey had proposed expanding the deal to include cooperation in oil, gas, petrochemicals and electricity.
"This pipeline has a capacity of almost 1.5 million barrels per day. There's no flow at the moment. Even when it did flow, it was never at full capacity," Bayraktar said.
The 970-km Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has been offline since 2023, after an arbitration court ruled Ankara should pay $1.5 billion in damages for unauthorised Iraqi exports between 2014 and 2018. Turkey is appealing the ruling.
'I can't imagine Iraq will export 1.5 million bpd through that northern pipeline because Europe is not a major market for Iraq's crude,' said Nabil Al-Marsoumi, an energy and economics professor at Basra University in South Iraq.
Biggest market in Asia
Official Iraqi data showed Asian markets accounted for nearly 78 percent of Iraq's oil exports this year while the rest were supplied to Europe and the US.
During the first half of 2025, Iraq exported around 3.4 million bpd of crude and more than half of the exports went to China and India.
The figures by Iraq's state oil marketing organisation (SOMO) showed that in 2024, China alone imported 1.19 million bpd of Iraqi oil while India's imports stood at 1.09 million bpd and those by South Korea at 328,000 bpd.
'More than two thirds of Iraq's oil output is exported to Asian markets….these are very fast growing markets and reliable clients,' SOMO's director general Ali Nizar said.
The bulk of Iraq's oil exports are loaded at terminals in the Southern port of Basra and Khor Zubair, where they are sent aboard tankers through the narrow Hormuz Strait.
Iraqi energy experts believe that despite occasional risks at Hormuz, it remains the most feasible export outlet for Iraq's crude oil given its proximity to Asian markets and cheap tanker fees compared to pipeline fees.
Iraq, OPEC's second largest oil exporter, has considered building a multi-billion-dollar pipeline from Basra to the Southern Jordanian port of Aqaba. It has also thought of reviving a 850-kilometre defunct pipeline that once transported part of its crude to the Western Syrian port of Tartus on the Mediterranean.
'The pipeline to Syria has not been maintained for decades…Iraq also considers that this pipeline is less economically feasible than the Kirkuk-Ceyhen pipeline when it comes to transporting crude to Europe,' said Walid Khaddouri, former information chief at the Kuwaiti-based Arab Energy Organisation.
'Furthermore, the European markets have been declining due to a gradual fall in demand…Iraq and other Gulf oil producers are now more interested in Asian markets, to which nearly 65-70 of their crude is exported.'
Figures by the Iraqi finance ministry showed that China and India provided Baghdad with nearly 70 percent of its total oil export revenues in 2024.
Sitting atop the world's fifth largest proven oil deposits, Iraq netted nearly $97 billion in crude export earnings last year at an average production of around 3.35 million bpd.
The figures showed the value of hydrocarbon exports to China totaled around $38 billion in 2024, nearly 40 percent of Iraq's total oil export value last year.
Oil sales to India were valued at around $29 billion last year, accounting for nearly 30 percent of the Arab country's total oil sales.
Experts believe Asia may increase imports of Iraqi oil as some markets seek to replace Russian sources. They also cited plans by Iraq to invest in Asian refineries to expand crude export outlets.
'We have selected Asian countries for such investments given their rapid growth in energy demand and their high populations… These are vast consumer markets that will help Iraq maintain its market share and diversify its exports,' Iraqi government adviser Haitm Al-Fadli said in June.
(Reporting by Nadim Kawach; Editing by Anoop Menon)
(anoop.menon@lseg.com)
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