Nifty 50, Sensex today: What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on July 31 after Trump tariffs, US Fed policy

Mint

7 days ago

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Thursday after the US President Donald Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Indian goods.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,673 level, a discount of nearly 196 points from the Nifty futures' previous close.
On Wednesday, the Indian stock market ended higher, with the Nifty 50 closing above 24,800 level.
The Sensex rallied 143.91 points, or 0.18%, to close at 81,481.86, while the Nifty 50 settled 33.95 points, or 0.14%, higher at 24,855.05.
Here's what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex formed a small candle on the daily charts and the narrow range activity on intraday charts, indicating indecisiveness between bulls and bears.
'The next hurdle for Sensex lies in the 82,000 – 82,200 range, where it has faced selling earlier. On the downside, support is seen near 80,800 – 80,600. If this zone breaks, it could trigger fresh selling. A decisive breakout above the resistance range could trigger renewed buying interest and signal a resumption of upward momentum. Conversely, a breakdown below the support zone may open the door to further declines,' said Mayank Jain, Market Analyst, Share.Market.
On the Nifty options front, the highest Call open interest is at the 25,000 and 25,200 strikes, suggesting overhead resistance zones, while the highest Put open interest is at the 24,800 strike, indicating a strong support base. Overall, the technical and derivative setup hints at a potential upside continuation, provided key support levels are held, said Mandar Bhojane, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst - Research at Choice Equity Broking.
Nifty 50 shifted into a narrow range movement with positive bias on July 30 and closed the day higher by 33 points.
'The Bullish Engulfing pattern that formed on Tuesday is still intact. Hence, the formation of a small candle pattern of Wednesday could be considered as a range bound action below the immediate hurdle of 24,900 - 25,000, as per change in polarity. After the present range bound action, the market is expected to break above the said resistance in the coming sessions,' said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 remains positive, and a sustainable upmove above the hurdle of 24,900 - 25,000 levels is likely to pull the market towards the next important resistance area of 25,250 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 24,750.
Motilal Oswal noted that the Nifty 50 formed a small bodied bearish candle with longer lower shadow on daily frame indicating support based buying and a cushion base.
'Now, Nifty 50 has to hold above 24,750 zones, for an up move towards 25,000 then 25,100 zones, while support can be seen at 24,700 then 24,600 zones,' said the brokerage firm.
Mayank Jain believes that the immediate resistance for Nifty 50 is seen near 25,000 – 25,050, and a stronger barrier stands at 25,200, where the index has faced repeated selling. Near-term support is expected around 24,650 – 24,600, and a break below this zone may lead to further downside.
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today said that the Nifty 50 index tested the 50-day EMA, forming a bullish pin bar candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe.
'We can expect Nifty 50 to find support between 24,730 and 24,800 and meet resistance near 25,030 and 25,200 in today's session,' Ambala said.
Bank Nifty ended 71.30 points, 0.13%, lower at 56,150.70 on Wednesday, forming a bearish candle with the open and high remaining marginally similar, and continues to hover below key short-term averages, reflecting subdued momentum ahead of the monthly expiry.
'The support zone of 55,800 – 55,700 will be crucial to watch for Bank Nifty. Holding above this band is essential to maintain the current short-term positive bias. On the flip side, the resistance zone of 56,400 – 56,500 is expected to pose a significant challenge. A decisive and sustainable breakout above the 56,500 level could pave the way for an extended pullback rally with immediate upside targets at 56,900, followed by 57,500 in the near term,' said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research, SBI Securities.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities highlighted that the Bank Nifty index remains below the violated rising trendline that had previously offered multi-week support. The RSI has slipped to 44, while the MACD shows a widening bearish crossover, reaffirming the weakening setup.
'On the hourly chart, super trend resistance remains near 56,500. The intraday recovery failed to gain strength and was capped near the mid-Bollinger band. The immediate support lies at 55,800, followed by a crucial downside marker at 55,600. If this zone breaks, the index may decline further. On the upside, resistance stands at 56,500 – 56,600. A close above this range is crucial to negate the short-term bearish outlook,' Mehra said.
According to him, until Bank Nifty decisively reclaims its short-term moving averages and the rising trendline on the daily chart, the trend may remain slightly weaker. With volatility continuing to rise, a cautious approach remains appropriate as we prepare for potential large swings in the coming session.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. said that the Bank Nifty index formed a small red candle on the daily chart, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.
'However, on the downside, a strong base has been established near 55,840, while on the upside, the 34-DEMA hurdle is placed around 56,490. Thus, traders are advised to buy near support and sell near resistance in the short term,' Yedve said.
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