'Clumsy' Japanese PM Ishiba's Future In The Balance
Opinion polls suggest that Ishiba's coalition could lose its majority in upper house elections on Sunday, a result that might push him to resign.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, but whether anyone wants to replace Ishiba is another matter.
"I wonder who else wants the job," Masahisa Endo, politics professor at Waseda University, told AFP.
Ishiba, 68, a self-confessed defence "geek", is the son of a regional governor and is from Japan's small Christian minority.
He won the party leadership in September, on his fifth try, to become the LDP's 10th separate prime minister since 2000, all of them men.
Ishiba pledged to "create a new Japan" and revitalise depressed rural regions, and to address the "quiet emergency" of Japan's shrinking population.
He immediately called lower house elections for October but that backfired spectactularly, with the LDP suffering its worst result in 15 years.
That robbed the LDP and its coalition party Komeito of their majority, forcing them to bargain with opposition parties to pass legislation.
Ishiba's policies on bringing down inflation and spurring growth have "flip-flopped" as a result, said Stefan Angrick at Moody's Analytics.
"Ishiba's government has boxed itself in, promising only some belated and half-hearted financial support that will do little to improve the demand outlook," Angrick said.
The government's popularity ratings have plummeted, with voters angry about price rises, especially for rice that is twice as expensive as a year ago.
Ishiba, the father of two daughters, also missed a chance to appear more modern by appointing only two women to his cabinet, down from five under predecessor Fumio Kishida.
Ishiba's sometimes clumsy ways -- ranging from the less-than-perfectly tidy arrangement of his tuxedo to his table manners -- have also been rich fodder for social media memes.
He drew ridicule after being snapped apparently napping in parliament and for failing to stand up to greet other world leaders at a gathering in South America.
Worse was a video that emerged of Ishiba eating an onigiri rice ball -- a popular snack -- whole and munching on it without closing his mouth.
"He eats like a three-year-old," one user said on social media platform X.
"How could he have risen to the top with these manners?" asked another.
A major challenge has been dealing with US President Donald Trump, who has imposed tariffs on Japanese cars, steel and aluminium.
Further levies of 25 percent on other Japanese imports will come into force on August 1 if there is no trade agreement.
Ishiba secured an early invitation to the White House in February and has sent his tariffs envoy to Washington seven times, but there has been no deal yet.
Then-premier Shinzo Abe -- dubbed a "Trump whisperer" -- fared better during Trump's first term, managing to shield Japan from any tariffs.
Abe, who was assassinated in 2022, gifted Trump a gold-coloured golf club and was a frequent visitor to see the US president.
According to Trump, Abe even nominated him for the Nobel prize. "There will never be another like him," he said after Abe's death.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
DW
3 hours ago
- DW
Are Donald Trump's tariffs the new sanctions? – DW – 07/22/2025
Donald Trump is using tariffs to achieve objectives typically associated with sanctions. But does the threat of rising US inflation and retaliation make sanctions a safer choice? US President Donald Trump's reliance on tariffs rather than sanctions has been described as both the "world's worst bet" and "a powerful proven source of leverage" to protect the national interests of the United States. While tariffs essentially are taxes on imports to protect domestic industries, sanctions are penalties imposed on other countries to punish or influence their governments. Sanctions typically restrict trade or finance. Since his return to the White House in January, Trump's tariff threats against dozens of countries have created great uncertainty among US businesses and global trading partners. What's become known as "tariff tango" — bold pledges of steep duties on foreign goods, followed by abrupt reversals — suits Trump's shifting political or economic goals. Yet, financial markets remain on edge, not knowing how or when the president may deploy tariffs next. The tariff on China, the biggest economic and military rival to the US, reached historic highs in April, soaring to 145% before being significantly cut the following month after trade talks in London. Trump's sudden increase and later rollback of tariffs show how he uses them as a flexible way to fix what he sees as unfair trade, based on past trade disputes. "What shapes the president's views is the rapid rise of Japan in the 1980s and the feeling that the Japanese were out-competing the iconic American car industry because the US has been too generous in its trade terms," Jennifer Burns, associate professor of history at Stanford University, told DW. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Tariffs are Trump's preferred weapon to tackle the massive US trade deficit, particularly with China, which amounted to $295 billion (€253 billion) in 2024, according to the US Census Bureau. They also align with his "America First" agenda to protect domestic industries and boost US job creation. The White House has defended the president's approach, insisting that tariffs can be quickly deployed and, unlike sanctions, don't completely shut foreign markets to US firms. "[Trump] can add this pressure when he wants and then bring it back when markets start to freak out or it stops serving his purpose," Sophia Busch, associate director of the Geoeconomic Centre at the Atlantic Council think tank, told DW. "This is much easier with tariffs than with sanctions." Although tariffs have been widely criticized for their potential to stoke inflation, they do raise revenue for the US Treasury, unlike sanctions. US tariff revenues are up 110% to $97.3 billion (€83.2 billion) in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year. Tariffs are expected to raise $360 billion next year, according to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. Tariffs give Trump direct, unilateral control, using executive orders without needing approval from the US Congress. Sanctions, on the other hand, often require complex legal frameworks and cooperation with international partners, like the European Union. The preference for tariffs over sanctions reflects Trump's aim for rapid, visible economic leverage, but raises concerns about the destabilizing effects of such policies on global trade and peace. "The reason [tariffs] have such a bad reputation is because they're linked to these episodes of de-globalization, and in the 20th century, they were linked to armed conflict," said Burns. "If low tariffs and open markets knit countries together in a way that forestalls armed conflict, does it mean that we might be moving away from that?" "Sanctions are more about punishing countries for violating international norms," Stanford's Jennifer Burns told DW. "They're in response to specific actions, and if those actions cease, the sanctions can be undone." Trump's second-term policies suggest he is using tariffs to achieve objectives typically associated with sanctions, such as pressuring countries like Canada, Mexico and China on nontrade issues like immigration and drug trafficking. These tariffs have prompted retaliatory measures or threats, which have intensified global trade tensions. Similarly, Colombia was threatened with tariffs after it rejected US deportation flights, while threatened levies on the European Union were partly announced as a response to EU privacy and climate regulations. Earlier this month, Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, which were framed as retaliation for the prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally. The far-right politician faces trial for allegedly plotting a coup to overturn his 2022 election loss, including plans to assassinate political rivals. Noting how the uncertainty around Trump's tariff policy had left US firms and global trade partners reeling, Burns warned that "years of tariff uncertainty" may cause a "serious economic slowdown, as businesses and investors wait for a more predictable landscape." Previous US administrations have preferred sanctions over tariffs as a punitive tool to bring rogue countries into line. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US has imposed more than 2,500 sanctions on Russia, targeting individuals, entities, shipping and aircraft. The US has also imposed sanctions on Venezuela, Iran and North Korea. "These economies are not crucial trading partners for the US," the Atlantic Council's Busch said, adding that Trump's tariffs on the "top US trading partners" were "more of an economic threat domestically." Trump has recently expressed more openness to deploying sanctions. Referring to a bill proposed by Senator Lindsey Graham for additional penalties on Russia if it fails to negotiate a peace deal in good faith with Ukraine, Trump said he was "very strongly" considering fresh sanctions. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video If passed, the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 will target key Russian officials and oligarchs, financial institutions and the energy sector, aiming to curb Russia's ability to export oil and gas. The bill, which has bipartisan support, also proposes secondary sanctions on third countries and foreign companies, which Trump has termed "secondary tariffs" of up to 500% on countries importing Russian energy. Trump's similar "secondary tariffs" of 25% on buyers of Venezuelan oil, which took effect in March, were also designed to pressure energy importers to align with US foreign policy, a role typically reserved for sanctions. Secondary sanctions usually include blacklisting individuals and entities, asset freezes and banking restrictions. The threat of US criminal charges and travel bans is also often used.
Int'l Business Times
3 hours ago
- Int'l Business Times
MAGA-style 'Anti-globalist' Politics Arrives In Japan
Populist ideals are gaining traction in Japan, spurred by right-wing politicians running rampant elsewhere railing against "elitism", "globalism" and immigration. While Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition lost its upper house majority in an election on Sunday, the "Japanese first" Sanseito party, created only five years ago, increased its seats from two to 15. Sanseito's agenda comes straight from the copybook of right-wing movements such as US President Donald Trump's "Make America Great Again", the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Nigel Farage's Reform party in Britain. This includes "stricter rules and limits" on immigration and foreign capital, opposition to "globalism" and "radical" gender policies, and a rethink on decarbonisation, vaccines and pesticide-free agriculture. Founded on YouTube, Sanseito will "bring power back to the people", party leader Sohei Kamiya, a 47-year-old former teacher and supermarket manager, wrote in the Japan Times. Surveys have put immigration far down the list of voters' concerns, who are much more worried about inflation and the economy. But for Sanseito, the influx of newcomers into Japan -- where the immigration its economy badly needs is far lower than in other developed countries -- is to blame for a host of ills from crime to rising property prices to dangerous driving. "It's fine if they visit as tourists, but if you take in more and more foreigners, saying they're cheap labour, then Japanese people's wages won't rise," Kamiya said at a campaign. But he added: "We are not exclusionary. We have never called to drive out foreigners." Meanwhile online platforms have been flooded with disinformation, some of which Japanese fact-checking groups and the government have debunked. Some posts falsely claimed that foreigners leave almost $3 billion of medical bills unpaid a year, or that Chinese residents on welfare doubled in five years. At a Sanseito election rally in front of Tokyo's Shinagawa station, where orange T-shirted party workers handed out "Stop destroying Japan!" flyers, one voter told AFP she was finally being heard. "They put into words what I had been thinking about but couldn't put into words for many years," said the 44-year-old IT worker on a precarious short-term contract. "When foreigners go to university, the Japanese government provides subsidies to them, but when we were going to university, everyone had huge debts." Russian bot accounts have been responsible for "large-scale information manipulation", according to a much-read blog post by Ichiro Yamamoto from the Japan Institute of Law and Information Systems think-tank. This has been helped by artificial intelligence enabling better translation of material into Japanese. More understanding towards Russia -- something which was long anathema for Japanese right-wingers -- is also a theme for Kamiya. "Russia's military invasion (of Ukraine) was of course bad, but there are forces in the United States that drove Russia into doing that," Kamiya told AFP, denying he is "pro-Russia". He was forced during his campaign to deny receiving support from Moscow -- which has been accused of backing similar parties in other countries -- after a Sanseito candidate was interviewed by Russian state media. As in other countries, the rise of Sanseito and its success has prompted the government to announce new immigration policies, and other parties to make promises during the election campaign. Ishiba's LDP proclaimed the goal of achieving "zero illegal foreign nationals" and said the government will strengthen the management system for immigration and residency status. Eight NGOs issued a joint statement last week, since backed by over 1,000 groups, raising the alarm on "rapidly spreading xenophobia". "The argument that 'foreigners are prioritised' is totally unfounded demagoguery," the statement said. Hidehiro Yamamoto, politics and sociology professor at the University of Tsukuba, said that populism has not caught hold before because the LDP, unlike established parties elsewhere, has remained a "catch-all party". "The LDP has taken care of lower middle-class residents in cities, farmers in the countryside, and small- and mid-sized companies," Yamamoto said. And pointing to the rise and decline of other new parties in Japan in the past, he isn't sure Sanseito will last. "You can't continue gaining support only with a temporary mood among the public," Yamamoto said. Japan's opposition party Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya delivers a campaign speech AFP
Int'l Business Times
5 hours ago
- Int'l Business Times
Stocks Mixed With Trade And Earnings In Focus; Tokyo Reopens With Gains
Asian markets were mixed Thursday as traders kept an eye on earnings from Wall Street titans this week while tracking US trade talks just over a week before the deadline for a deal. Japanese stocks edged up and the yen held gains after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he will stay in power despite the weekend election debacle. Investors took a more cautious path after a largely positive day on Wall Street, where the S&P ended above 6,300 points for the first time and the Nasdaq chalked up yet another record. Equities continue to rally on expectations key trading partners will strike agreements with Washington before August 1 to avoid Donald Trump's sky-high tariffs, with the US president saying several deals were close. Just three have been struck so far. His press secretary Karoline Leavitt said more could be reached before next Friday but also warned the president could unveil fresh unilateral tolls in that time. While Trump's initial tariff bombshell on April 2 rattled global markets before he delayed introducing the measures twice, they have seen more muted reactions to successive threats as traders expect him to eventually row back again. That optimism has been helped by data indicating the US economy remained healthy despite the imposition of other levies that are beginning to be felt on Main Street. And SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes warned traders could be in for a shock next week. "The new tariff regime isn't being priced -- full stop," he wrote. "Markets have seen this movie before: tough talk, last-minute extensions, and deal-making in overtime. But this time, Trump isn't bluffing. He's already posted 'No extensions will be granted'. "The new rates -- 30 percent on the EU, 35 percent on Canada, 50 percent on Brazil -- are politically loaded and economically radioactive. If they go live, there's no soft landing." Hong Kong has been the standout in Asia this year, piling on around a quarter thanks to a rally in Chinese tech firms and a fresh flow of cash from mainland investors. And the Hang Seng Index continued its advance Tuesday, with Shanghai, Sydney and Taipei also up. There were losses in Singapore, Seoul, Wellington and Manila. Tokyo rose as investors returned from a long weekend to news that Ishiba would remain in power even after his ruling coalition lost its majority in Japan's lower house elections Sunday, months after it suffered a similar fate in the upper house. His refusal to leave helped the yen push higher against the dollar and other peers, though observers warned the government's tenure remained fragile and investors remained nervous. The yen strengthened to 147.08 Tuesday before paring some of the gains. That compares with 148.80 Friday. But Franklin Templeton Institute's Christy Tan said that "Ishiba now faces heightened political headwinds, including pressure over inflation, taxes, and US trade talks". Focus also turns this week to earnings from some of the world's biggest names, including Tesla, Google-parent Alphabet, General Motors, Intel and Coca-Cola. While there will be plenty of attention given to the results, the firms' guidance will be key as investors try to gauge companies' pulses in light of Trump's trade war. Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.2 percent at 39,892.81 (break) Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.3 percent at 25,074.15 Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 3,563.59 Dollar/yen: UP at 147.50 yen from 147.42 yen on Monday Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1690 from $1.1688 Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3484 from $1.3485 Euro/pound: UP at 86.69 pence from 86.68 pence West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.7 percent at $66.70 per barrel Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.9 percent at $68.62 per barrel New York - Dow: FLAT at 44,323.07 (close) London - FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 9,012.99 (close)
