FOCUS: Japan may face political turmoil if PM quits soon after election loss
Having lost its majority in both chambers of parliament it remains unclear whether the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could even produce the next prime minister from within its own ranks, should Ishiba step down.
Amid deep ideological divisions, prospects for an opposition-led government are dim, compelling the LDP's next leader to pursue new alliances. Should coalition talks falter, Japan could be thrust into a period of prolonged political turbulence, analysts warn.
The ruling bloc was already a minority in the more powerful House of Representatives following last year's general election, held about a month after Ishiba won the LDP leadership race in late September.
Frustration over his government's failure to take effective measures to ease the negative impact of inflation on the economy also led to the LDP losing this year's Tokyo metropolitan assembly election one month before the upper house race.
A government official said, "Ishiba struck out on three pitches. He's out and it's time to switch sides."
Some pundits say Ishiba's reluctance to cut the consumption tax rate to maintain the social security system -- a move believed to favor the elderly -- is viewed by the younger generation as tone-deaf to household struggles, eroding support across ideological lines.
The LDP has not clarified whether it will begin discussing a consumption tax cut with opposition parties. Ikuo Gonoi, a politics professor at Takachiho University, said the public "will not be satisfied" unless the ruling party "makes concessions" on the issue.
Ishiba, meanwhile, said Japan has reached a crucial trade agreement with the United States, avoiding the worst-case scenario of a 25 percent "reciprocal tariff," but the deal's conclusion may pave the way for Ishiba's exit, the pundits added.
While the ruling camp's loss of its majority in both the lower and upper houses has provided a window of opportunity for opposition parties to take power, they have been ideologically fragmented, particularly on national security issues.
Even if the LDP-led coalition remains the core of the government, it must seek cooperation from opposition parties to pass individual bills and budgets, at least until the next scheduled upper house election in three years.
Ishiba's resignation would force the LDP to hold a leadership race -- either involving rank-and-file members or decided swiftly by lawmakers alone. A shift toward a more conservative, pro-spending figure might be the party's best bet.
Sanae Takaichi, a former minister for economic security, is considered a top candidate to succeed Ishiba. She won the most rank-and-file votes in the previous LDP leadership race and would become the party's first female president if elected.
Takaichi, known as an advocate of expansionary fiscal spending and hawkish national security policies, could trigger a broader political realignment as Ishiba has alienated conservative supporters from the LDP.
If the LDP pivots rightward, the possibility of a grand coalition with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan would diminish, as the largest opposition force holds more left-leaning perspectives on security and diplomacy.
But some conservative opposition groups that gained momentum in the latest election -- such as the Democratic Party for the People and the right-leaning populist Sanseito party -- could align with Takaichi's LDP, making a coalition feasible.
Even so, it remains to be seen whether Takaichi can become Japan's first female prime minister. As a last resort to expand the coalition, the LDP could tap a partner party leader as premier in exchange for securing a bicameral majority.
In Japan, the biggest party in parliament has occasionally handed the prime ministership to the leader of a smaller coalition partner to form a government, most notably after the LDP was briefly ousted from power in 1993.
Other potential successors to Ishiba could face difficulties bringing other parties into the coalition, as many are regarded as moderates like him. He has prompted conservative opposition groups to further distance themselves from the LDP.
Farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who has regained media attention for promoting efforts to curb surging rice prices, is perceived as a close ally of Ishiba, while Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi shares the blame for Sunday's setback as the government's top spokesman.
Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Ishiba's predecessor, appears eager to make a comeback, but he has not escaped criticism for losing the conservative support base that Shinzo Abe, Japan's longest-serving premier who was assassinated in 2022, had built.
Only Koizumi seems well-positioned to forge a coalition government with the conservative Japan Innovation Party, as he has a "strong affinity" with its leader, Osaka Gov. Hirofumi Yoshimura, the group's founder Toru Hashimoto said on a TV program.
If the next LDP president fails to join hands with groups other than its long-standing partner Komeito party, the opposition bloc could submit a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet. Given the seat distribution in the lower house, the motion is set to pass.
The new leader would then most likely dissolve the lower house and call a snap election, said Masamichi Adachi, chief economist for Japan at UBS Securities, adding, "In any case, political uncertainty is expected to continue for some time."
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