
Betting on the next pope is back: Polymarket sparks global buzz on who will succeed Pope Francis; here's who it's projecting
Global interest surges as prediction markets open bets on the next Pope. Pietro Parolin, Vatican's Secretary of State, leads with a 37% chance. Filipino Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle follows with 32%. Péter Erdő, a Hungarian, holds 7%. Peter Turkson of Ghana secures 6%. Over $3 million wagered on potential pontiffs.
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While the world focuses on the future of the Catholic Church , a tradition dating back centuries has come back with a contemporary spin of wagering on the next pope, as per a report. Polymarket , the prediction market platform, has sparked worldwide interest by opening up bets on who will be the next pope after Pope Francis died at the age of 88 years on Monday, according to DailyBeast.The betting platform found that, Italian Pietro Parolin , the Vatican's 70-year-old secretary of state since 2013, has a 37% chance to be elected as the next pope, as per the report. He is also known as the 'deputy pope' and is considered a moderate choice, according to DailyBeast.The next option is Filipino Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, with the second highest chance of being Francis' successor as he has 32% bets on Polymarket. The 67-year-old is also referred to as the 'Asian Francis' due to his commitments to social justice and he would be the first pope from Asia, as per DailyBeast.In the third position is Péter Erdő , a 72-year-old Hungarian, with 7% bets on the platform. According to DailyBeast, he is conisdered to be more of a conservative than Francis or the first two Polymarket contenders.After Erdő, was Peter Turkson of Ghana, who had 6% bets, as per DailyBeast. The 76-year-old would be the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa, according to the report.DailyBeast reported that the American cryptocurrency-based has accepted $3 million in wagers in total, with money being put behind a pack of 13 possible pontiffs. Polymarket is also accepting wagers on other pope-related markets, like his race and when he will be chosen, reported DailyBeast.Pietro Parolin is currently the leading with a 37% chance of being elected as the next pope, as per DailyBeast.Polymarket has accepted over $3 million in bets on who will be the next pope.
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Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Singapore casts tax shadow on India bets, shuns shell companies
Mumbai: Singapore is intensifying scrutiny of companies and investment entities, a move that could ignite new tax disputes. This development particularly impacts many MNCs and international funds that use the Asian financial hub as a base to invest in and acquire companies in India. The catalyst for these potential disputes is a recent series of advance rulings by the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS), which define and endorse what constitutes ' economic substance '. If a Singaporean entity fails to meet the conditions emphasized by the tax administrator and thus cannot prove it has adequate 'substance,' the Indian Income Tax (I-T) department could levy higher taxes. This could involve claiming tax on certain stock sale transactions or demanding increased tax on earnings from dividends and loan interest paid by an Indian company. Dealmakers and businesses are closely monitoring this situation. "These advance rulings are the first to evaluate economic substance factors since their inclusion in 2024 as Section 10L of Singapore's Income Tax Act for taxing gains from the sale of foreign assets. These factors could be used by Indian tax authorities to determine whether a Singapore-based entity is merely a conduit, particularly when applying the Principal Purpose Test (PPT)," explained Ashish Karundia of the CA firm Ashish Karundia & Co. (A PPT is a provision that allows denial of treaty benefits). According to Girish Vanvari, founder of the tax and regulatory advisory firm Transaction Square, the implications are far-reaching due to the change in law prioritizing substance and economic reality over legal form. "For tax professionals and business leaders, this means a necessary recalibration of how Singapore is used in cross-border structuring -especially in relation to Indian operations. So, if you're using Singapore as a holding or IP base for India-related investments, it's time to revisit the structure. The days of relying purely on treaty protection without operational presence are over," said Vanvari. Many foreign investors betting on India utilize Singapore to leverage the tax treaty between the two countries. A common structure involves one of their arms in a tax-friendly jurisdiction setting up a company in Singapore (say, S1), which in turn owns another company in Singapore (say, S2). In this two-layered structure, S2 serves as a vehicle to invest in India. Typically, when exiting an Indian investment, S1 might sell the shares of S2, which holds shares in an Indian company; alternatively, S2 would directly sell its interest in the Indian company. THE PARAMETERS The IRAS underscored that economic substance would require: (a) a company to have adequate human resources with the necessary qualifications and experience; (b) have a premise in Singapore; (c) take key business decisions there; and (d) incurs expenditure. If S1 or S2 does not fulfil these criteria, they would come under the lens of the tax authorities in either Singapore or India. How? Here are the possible situations: · Say, S1 sells shares of S2 (both local entities) and if India demands tax on the 'indirect transfer' by invoking India's domestic tax regulations, companies like S1 have till now argued that under the treaty India has no right to tax gains from indirect transfers. However, in future, the I-T department could assert that the treaty holds only if S1 has substance. But if it doesn't (as per Singapore's terms), S1 cannot avail treaty benefits and must pay tax to India. Here, I-T would challenge that S1 was formed primarily to escape tax. · If S2 directly sells shares of the Indian company, there's no capital gains tax if the shares were bought before 2017 (under a grandfathering provision introduced when the treaty was amended). However, if S2 lacks substance, I-T may demand tax on the grounds that treaty relief can be denied to a shell outfit. · Suppose, S1 sells stocks it directly holds of another company in a third country. S1 can avoid tax in Singapore if it can demonstrate substance. However, if S1 fails the substance test (and is taxed by Singapore), then India would also have strong grounds to demand tax from S1 when it sells shares of S2. · Also, there's an increased risk of double taxation - with India taxing based on source and Singapore taxing based on substance.


India.com
4 hours ago
- India.com
Why is Trump desperate for a trade deal with China? Know the SHOCKING reasons that brought US to its knees due to...
(File) China Rare Earth Elements: After assuming office for his second Presidential term in January this year, Donald Trump instigated a trade war with China by imposing exorbitant import tariffs on Chinese good. However, nearly six months later, the US President is desperately seeking a trade deal with Beijing to prevent key American industries from collapsing. Here's the reason why Trump made a U-turn on China, and is appeasing the Asian power to seek a China-US trade deal. Why US bent the knee to China? China dominates the global supply of rare earth elements, which are used by the US defense industry to manufacture advanced weapons and defense systems like radar systems, fighter jet engines, etc. According to a report by the South China Morning Post, China controls more than 90 percent of the world's processing and refining of rare earth elements, and also leads in other refining an extraction of other critical minerals like refined gallium, of which it controls 98.8 percent of global production. In recent years, Beijing has leveraged its dominance in critical mineral production and refining as a major negotiating point in trade wars, as well as targeting the defence industries of the US and its allies. The US defense industry is majorly dependent on China for rare earth minerals, but the supply has been nearly halted due to the ongoing US-China tariff war. China has imposed an export ban on rare earth elements to the US, effectively weaking the Pentagon's Pentagon's military preparations and weapons manufacturing capabilities. How China pressured the US into submission? In July 2023, Beijing imposed export controls requiring Chinese exporters to seek permission to ship eight gallium-related and six germanium-related products to other countries. In August last year, the list was expanded to include antimony, and in December, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce imposed export restrictions on gallium, germanium and antimony to the United States, as Beijing anticipated a trade war when Trump assumed office. In April this year, Beijing imposed export restrictions, mandating special export licenses for seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth elements (REEs) – samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium – as well as magnets and other finished products containing these REEs to be shipped out of China. China's sweeping restrictions on REEs brought defense manufacturing to a halt in US and its allied countries, as supplies of rare earth minerals required for weapons' manufacturing rapidly thinned out. Why US requires large quantities of REEs? The United States is world's largest arms manufacturer and its defense sector requires a gargantuan amount of rare earth minerals to manufacture advanced modern weaponry such as precision-guided missiles, stealth fighter jets, naval warships, submarines and advanced radar systems. According to various reports, the US-made F-35 stealth fighter incorporates over 400 kg (900 lbs) of REEs in each unit for its jet engines, avionics, munitions and radar systems. The F-47, US' Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter jet, is expected to contain even larger amounts of critical minerals, due to cutting-edge features like unmanned flight, artificial intelligence integration, and next-gen stealth capabilities. Similarly, US navy warships and submarines require giant quantities of REEs, with Virginia-class submarines requiring 4,200 kilograms and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers needing 2,360 kilograms of REEs for their radars, munitions and other technologies. US Predator drones, Tomahawk missiles, Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) smart bombs, and advanced radar systems all rely on rare earth elements for propulsion, targeting, and guidance. According to experts, more than 80 percent of the Pentagon's weapon system supply chains contain antimony, gallium, or germanium. Does US have REE resources? While the US does have rare earth resources, those pale in comparison to China's gigantic hold on global refining and processing of REEs. The US accounts for around 15 percent of global production of REEs, but its not enough to meet the rare earth needs of US industries, especially the defense sector. Since 2020, the Pentagon has invested $439 million to build domestic supply chains in critical minerals, and a $35 million contract was awarded to MP Materials in 2022 for a heavy rare earth processing facility. However, its supply chain is still miniscule compared to China, and thus needs to import a major chunk of REEs from Beijing. In 2024, MP Materials announced a record production of 1,300 tons of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide for producing neodymium magnets, while China produced an estimated 300,000 tons of NdFeB magnets in the same year. China's antimony dominance Additionally, the US does not have any mining facilities for gallium, while China reportedly produced 750 of the 760 tons of primary low-purity gallium produced worldwide in 2024 and is known to have production capacity of up to 1,000 tons. China also holds about 48 percent of the world's mined antimony, controls 98.8 percent of refined gallium production, and is responsible for 59.2 percent of refined germanium production. All these critical minerals are used in the manufacturing of advanced weapons, ranging from armor-piercing bullets, night vision goggles and cables, to nuclear weapons and naval warships.


Mint
8 hours ago
- Mint
Trump says Xi agreed to restart the flow of rare earth minerals. Why are rare earths important for Chinese economy?
U.S. President Donald Trump told news agencies on Friday, 6 June 2025, that China's Xi Jinping has agreed to allow the export of rare earth minerals and magnets to the United States after a new round of talks amid the ongoing trade war. 'Yes, he did,' responded President Donald Trump when a reporter onboard Air Force One asked him about Xi's agreement on the rare earth deal. Trump reassured people that the US-China talks have resulted in a 'very positive conclusion,' which aims to make rare earth minerals no longer a topic of question. 'We're very far advanced on the China deal,' said Donald Trump, cited by the news agency Reuters. The Asian nation has also granted temporary export licenses to rare-earth suppliers of the top three automakers in the United States, reported the news agency, citing people aware of the development. According to Mint's earlier report, China imposed restrictions on its global export of rare earth minerals and magnets in April 2025. Although these restrictions came forth amid the ongoing trade and tariff war between the United States and other world nations, they are not specific to the US but apply to all other nations. Foreign companies like Tesla, Lockheed Martin, etc, from the aerospace, semiconductors, electronics, consumer goods, weapons, and auto sectors are the ones who are affected by this export curb, as they heavily rely on foreign imports for their component manufacturing. Indian automakers and clean energy companies have also suffered as China dominates the market for these rare earth commodities, and export curbs jeopardise the supply chains of many firms around the world. According to the Centre for Strategic & International Studies data, China refines over 92 per cent of the world's rare earth minerals, establishing a global dominance in the sector over other nations. Rare earth materials are used to manufacture many things which people rely on on a daily basis, from smartphone components to wind turbines. According to the news agency Reuters' report, apart from the 92 per cent production, the Asian nation also contributes to nearly 60 per cent of the global rare earth mine production. Several companies around the world are dependent upon the Chinese exports of these rare earth materials for use in the production of other finished goods. These rare earth metals, such as Cerium oxide, Bastnasite, Neodymium oxide, Lanthanum carbonate, Praseodymium, Dysprosium, and Terbium, are among other metals and magnets used to make commodities such as Batteries, Aircraft components, Electric Vehicles (EVs), Solar Cells, Wind Turbines, etc. According to an agency report, the world has 17 elements, including 15 silvery-white metals. The rarity of these materials is determined by the quality of them found in the Earth's crust. As there are very few deposits spread across the world, for China, this acts as a factor to assert global dominance. Data collected from Statista shows that the annual export value of China's rare earths was around $488.8 million. This has dropped marginally over 54 per cent when compared to its 2022 levels of $1,046.8 million. According to an earlier agency report, China restricted at least 16 minerals and related products since 2023, the latest ones coming after the nation retaliated against the US over the tariff war.