Uncertainty Over Trade Deal With US, Malnutrition In Gaza & More
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Independence Day promise of next-generation GST reforms has triggered strong expert responses. Economist Ved Jain highlights that after eight years, India is ready to move from multiple slabs to a simpler two or three-rate system. Former CBEC Chairman Najib Shah says merging current slabs could free up consumer spending and fuel demand. Pankaj Mohindroo of ICEA believes GST rationalisation is essential for 'Viksit Bharat @ 2047' and will help both industry and consumers. Experts agree the shift is not just about tax, but about a structural reform that could shape India's economic future.
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Mint
7 minutes ago
- Mint
Can Nifty 50, Bank Nifty scale record highs before Diwali 2025? These 5 factors hold key
The Indian stock market saw strong, broad-based buying on Monday, August 18, driving the benchmark Nifty 50 past the 25,000 mark for the first time since July 25. The Sensex, Nifty 50, and Nifty Bank indices gained over 1 per cent each during the session, as sentiment was lifted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's announcement on GST reforms, hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, signals from US President Donald Trump that he may reconsider secondary tariffs on India, and S&P's upgrade of India's credit rating. With expectations building around multiple tailwinds in the near term, investors are betting that the Sensex, Nifty, and Bank Nifty could scale record highs in the short term. It appears that the Indian stock market is at a crucial juncture of trend reversal, supported by the government's renewed focus on reforms, favourable growth–inflation dynamics, and expectations of US tariffs easing to manageable levels. "On the global front, easing economic and trade-related uncertainties—particularly between India and the US—would support investor sentiment. Domestically, the RBI's recent rate cuts are expected to reduce borrowing costs, which can stimulate demand and support both consumption and investment," said Ajit Mishra, SVP of research at Religare Broking. "The government's GST reform proposal, if implemented smoothly, could enhance consumer spending and business confidence. Ultimately, the most decisive factor will be corporate earnings—if upcoming results reflect a strong and broad-based recovery across sectors, it may well provide the trigger for the market to test new highs during the festive season," said Mishra. Experts point to five key factors that could determine whether the domestic market scales record highs before Diwali 2025. If Trump decides to withdraw the secondary tariffs imposed on India, it would provide significant relief to the market. In such a scenario, experts expect foreign investors to return in large numbers, potentially driving the market to unprecedented highs. Trump has hinted that the retaliatory tariffs on countries like India and China for procuring Russian oil may be dropped in case of a positive outcome on the Russia-Ukraine front. "If the US tariff war against India eases, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are expected to return in a big way. A rollback of tariffs to the 19–20 per cent range could trigger strong inflows, given that India's economic fundamentals remain intact, S&P Global has upgraded the country's rating despite tariff risks, and oil prices are expected to soften further," said G Chokkalingam, the founder and head of research at Equinomics Research Private Limited. "Easing economic and trade-related uncertainties—particularly between India and the US—would support investor sentiment," said Ajit Mishra, SVP of research at Religare Broking. On August 15, PM Modi announced the next-generation GST reforms. This could be a game-changer for the Indian economy as it may boost consumption, which has been lacklustre despite the good monsoon. According to reports, most products and services attracting a tax rate of 12 per cent and 28 per cent will be shifted to the 5 per cent and 18 per cent slabs, respectively. After relief on the income tax front, announced in Budget 2025, the GST reforms could boost rural and urban consumption, boosting the Indian economy. "The announcement of GST reforms is perhaps the most promising development. While monsoons have been favourable for three consecutive years, discretionary spending has not picked up to the extent seen in earlier periods of good rainfall. The proposed GST reform is a long-awaited move and could be a game-changer, as it would boost disposable incomes, thereby driving corporate earnings growth," Chokkalingam observed. Chokkalingam added that India has already benefited from direct tax concessions, and an indirect tax cut would further strengthen aggregate demand and help cushion external headwinds. According to brokerage firm Emkay Global, GST reforms could be a rerating trigger for the market, given the long-term growth benefits to the economy. The brokerage firm has revised its Nifty target to 28,000 for September 2026, with an aggressive 20.7 times one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio (+1sd above the five-year average). "The GST rationalisation offsets near-term worries on weak growth and tepid earnings. The six-week downtrend should now reverse, as the outlook for earnings improves considerably, and valuations will factor in the broader positives of this big-ticket reform measure," said Emkay. As India's growth outlook remains robust and inflation is under control due to easing food inflation and lower crude oil prices, corporate earnings are expected to improve from the second half of the financial year (H2FY26). Brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services estimates FY26 PAT (profit after tax) growth of 9.8 per cent for Nifty. "Given a favourable base effect, markets are likely to respond positively, especially as multiple government measures are expected to improve overall growth dynamics and sentiments in H2FY26," said the brokerage firm. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to further reduce the repo rate as inflation remains low and economic growth comes into focus amid tariff concerns. Experts expect a rate cut in the upcoming policy decision on October 1. "A reversal in the interest rate cycle would act as another significant tailwind for the markets, with the RBI widely expected to cut rates in its upcoming policy meeting," said Chokkalingam. At this juncture, the scope of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve appear feeble given the fact that the impact of Trump's tariffs on the US inflation will be visible from the coming months. Emerging markets like India tend to receive healthy foreign capital inflows when the dollar weakens and bond yields moderate. This can happen only if the Fed embarks on aggressive rate cuts. Shrikant Chouhan, the head of equity research at Kotak Securities, underscored that the market appears expensive in terms of valuations, with the index trading at 19 times FY27 earnings (one year forward). "If we receive external liquidity support, the market could surpass its previous highs. For this to happen, a decline in the dollar index or the 10-year bond yield would be necessary. This could occur if the US opts for an aggressive rate cut, which, while unlikely, cannot be entirely ruled out. Such a scenario would help strengthen our currency and attract foreign investments," said Chouhan. Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
The Wire
7 minutes ago
- The Wire
Nehru and the Contemporary Sectarianism
Nehru's record of instituting secularism as the guiding principle for a plural India and Modi's decade of promoting a culture of conflict are incomparable. Jawaharlal Nehru and Narendra Modi. Illustration via Canva. "The first charge of government will be to establish and maintain peace and tranquility in the land and to ruthlessly suppress communal strife … It is wrong to suggest that in this country there would be the rule of a particular religion or sect. All who owe allegiance to the flag will enjoy equal rights of citizenship, irrespective of caste and creed." The above epigraph, a part of Nehru's speech made on August 16, 1947 as independent India's first Prime Minister from the ramparts of the Red Fort, resonates on India's 79 th Independence Day more than ever. A sublime presaging of independent India's resolve to walk on a path of inclusive nationhood amid vicious sectarian violence triggered by the partition that the British inflicted and Jinnah spearheaded! The tumult of the past decade in the first quarter of twenty-first century India that has impacted society, and the polity alike, reminds us of Nehru's tough stand expressed above against communalism of any variety. In contrast, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's lauding of the controversial Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) (after all he is the first swayamsewak to have won three general elections to be the Prime Minister of India) in his twelfth speech from the same venue sounded jarring: 'Today, I would like to proudly mention that 100 years ago, an organisation was born – as Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). One hundred years of service to the nation is a proud, golden chapter. With the resolve of ' vyakti nirman se rashtra nirman ' with the aim of welfare of Maa Bharati, swayamsevaks dedicated their lives to the welfare of our motherland .... In a way, RSS is the biggest NGO of the world. It has a history of 100 years of dedication.' Nehru's record of instituting secularism as the guiding principle for a plural India and Modi's decade of promoting a culture of conflict are incomparable. An abysmal decade Mob lynching on the pretext of cow slaughter and/or keeping or carrying beef emerged as an abominable phenomenon in India since May 2014, the year Narendra Modi came to power. Though the demand to ban cow slaughter has been prevalent among a section in the country since independence, but the 1966 agitation aside, it did not result in routine individual and collective violence. The lynching of Akhlaq close to the national capital in Uttar Pradesh in September 2015 started an avoidable and reprehensible trend. The emergence of 'above the law' vigilante groups, their attacks on the Muslims on the suspicion of keeping or trading in beef and the action by the police on victims have shattered social harmony in the country. The north-east Delhi riot beginning February 23, 2020 was the worst in recent years. Irked by the protests on the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and National Register of Citizenship (NRC) a Union minister publicly declared ' Desh ke gaddaron ko, Goli Maro saalon ko ' (Shoot the bloody traitors), while another declared standing next to a senior cop serious consequences for the protestors if they did not desist. The resulting communal violence took over 53 innocent lives over the next ten days and injured many more. Places of worship were attacked, and shops and houses were burnt down. Worse still, several arrested were the victims and their families, not the perpetrators. In June 2022, another major violent incident was sparked by derogatory remarks made by two leaders of the BJP against the Prophet Muhammad in UP. State Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's 'innovative' punishment was meted out to the 'rioters' (read Muslims), disregarding Articles 21 and 22 of the Constitution of India; their houses were demolished. In several incidents of clashes the administration supported Hindu religious processions, even those brandishing swords deliberately in front of mosques, shouting provocative slogans, climbing minarets, removing green flags and planting saffron ones. The police in most cases were at their partisan worst. The Kanwariyas, the pilgrims to Haridwar to fetch ' gangajal ', the latest symbol of Hindutva, are another glorified menace to public order and communal peace for a month every year. In the past decade, the glowing tribute to them by the PM and several CMs made the police and administration literally servile to their whims. To make things worse, the administration in some states have closed meat and liquor shops on their route, even instructed the vendors to display their names, lest a pilgrim buys eatable from a non-Hindu shop. The prime minister's parliamentary constituency, the holy city of Varanasi, has been a site of a dispute regarding a mosque next to the Vishwanath temple since independence. Even as escalation of this dispute brought the city on the edge, another such dispute surrounding a mosque in Sambhal town, that no one heard about earlier, was raked up with the administration actively playing partisan role. Nehru's creed Obviously, several such major and sundry developments with active support from the governments and administration should make us think about communal harmony that has been disturbed during the past decade. Nehru's assertion and firm belief in a secular and communitarian India, has all but evaporated with the reinforcement of a 'Hindu India'. Describing Nehru's secularism since the late 1990s either as appeasement of minorities (read Muslims), or worse, as 'sickularism' (since 1998), has enfeebled social fabric. But did Nehru ever attempt to appease any section of the minorities in any part of the country? Nehru's vision of a secular India was one inhering 'scientific temper', which is emphasised in his writings. As an independent India was barely on its feet, the father of the nation Mahatma Gandhi fell to the bullet of assassin Godse on January 30, 1948. A teary-eyed Nehru issued a warning, 'We have banned the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh … enough has come to light already to show that this assassination was not the act of one individual … behind him lay a fairly widespread organisation and deliberate propaganda of hate and violence.' As riots escalated, he committed, 'I will stand in the way of Hindu-Muslim riots. Members of both the communities will have to tread over my dead body before they can strike at each other.' Nehru's idea of India had communal harmony as the cornerstone, while Jinnah's idea of Pakistan had torn India asunder, soaked the society on both sides of the Radcliffe line in blood, impacting the psyche of millions. Roaming around the country, Nehru would not hesitate to plunge himself in the midst of maddened crowd if he saw or heard communal slogans raised. The great Calcutta killing of August 1946 amidst Jinnah's Direct-Action cry and the October violence of Noakhali, both spreading like wildfire in neighbouring villages, towns and provinces, witnessed the finest coming out of the two men of steel – Gandhi and Nehru. In fact, the entire Congress leadership spread out to contain violence. Nehru did not allow personal relationships impacting his judgment against communalism. On February 24, 1948, less than a month after Gandhi's assassination, he said in Jullundur: We have to uproot this despicable communalism. It must be obliterated from this land so that it may not take roots again. This poison has … permeated the land.' Thus, all his life he resolutely worked for this higher idealism and 'inclusive nationalism'. As Mexican Nobel laureate Octavio Paz said, 'In contrast to the majority of the political leaders of this century, Nehru did not believe that he had the key to history in his hands. Because of this he did not stain his country nor the world with blood.' Ajay K. Mehra is a political scientist and a visiting professor at the Centre for Multilevel Federalism. Earlier, he was Atal Bihari Vajpayee Senior Fellow, Nehru Memorial Museum and Library, New Delhi, 2019-21 and Principal, Shaheed Bhagat Singh Evening College, Delhi University (2018). The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments. Advertisement
India Today
7 minutes ago
- India Today
GST bonanza before festive rush? Here's what it could mean for you
India's common man may soon see a change in how much they spend on everyday needs if the government's proposed changes to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) are put into plan, often referred to as GST 2.0, is aimed at making the tax system simpler and reducing the overall burden on consumers. For families preparing for the festive season, this could mean lower bills on food, clothes, medicines, and even household Finance Ministry has been working on this plan for 195 days, starting right after the Budget was announced on February 1, 2025, sources told Minister Narendra Modi first hinted at the move during his Red Fort address, calling it a 'Diwali Bonanza.' Officials say the new GST structure is designed to be leaner and cleaner, reducing tax rates across categories and making the system easier to ESSENTIALS TO GET CHEAPER Under the proposed changes, everyday essentials like food, clothes, and biscuits would fall under the 5% GST slab. Nearly 99% of items that currently attract 12% tax would be moved to 5%.Explaining this shift, Karthik Mani, Partner, Indirect Tax at BDO India, said the cuts would also apply to medicines, processed foods, non-alcoholic drinks, and pointed out that many of these are high-spend categories during the festive season. 'Consumers of these items would be largely benefitted,' he TAX ON HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCESThe biggest change for middle-class families could be in aspirational goods such as televisions, refrigerators, and washing machines. At present, these items are taxed at 28%. With the new rules, 90% of goods in the 28% slab would shift to 18%.'This means that household budgets could become lighter as items like processed foods, medicines, and even white goods may now move from 12% or 28% to lower GST slabs,' Mani THAT STAND TO GAINThe benefits are not limited to households. Several industries could also see a positive impact.'FMCG, especially processed agricultural products, textiles, pharmaceuticals, automotive, white goods, and even insurance are likely to see price drops because of the proposed rate cuts,' Mani also mentioned that the cuts are not temporary. 'The rate reductions would provide a lasting benefit without any end date, as the rates are meant to be revised permanently and not just for the festive season.'RELIEF FOR SMALL SHOPKEEPERSThe changes are expected to help not just big companies but also local retailers. According to Mani, 'The rate cuts will be beneficial to each player in the supply chain, including shopkeepers and retailers. Lower taxes will reduce their need for working capital and improve their ability to invest.'advertisementHowever, he also said that the full benefit will depend on how the government handles the issue of the 'inverted duty' structure in some sectors. He said it would also rely on whether manufacturers and dealers pass on the benefit of the rate cut to the final customer. If implemented, GST 2.0 could bring meaningful savings to households. For daily essentials, medicines, festive shopping, and even big-ticket appliances, the proposed cuts promise lower as Mani cautions, the real difference for consumers will be seen only if companies and retailers pass on the reduced tax rates fully to buyers. Until then, the common man will be waiting to see whether this festive season really brings relief to their pocket.- Ends
