Bybit and FXStreet TradFi Report: Fed Decision Could Tigger a "Volatile Summer"
The analysis marked a new key date: as the Fed is expected to maintain rates at 4.5% today, market focus has shifted to September 17, with current probability of a rate cut standing at 61%. The report identifies three critical factors driving September expectations: cooling inflation data, reduced tariff risks through recent trade agreements, and mounting political pressure for rate relief.
Highlights:
Shifting focus onto the September meeting: Change is in the air with market participants see the September meeting as a key turning point, factoring in tamed inflation, tariff deals in the making, and Trump's pressure on rate cuts.
EUR/USD set up: Trading near oversold conditions with RSI (relative strength index) at 30, key support at 1.145 and resistance at 1.161. A September cut could fuel a fresh uptrend for EUR/USD.
S&P 500: Hitting record highs with upside targets at 6,446 and 6,500 if rate cut expectations strengthen.
The report emphasizes that today's meeting serves as a catalyst for market positioning rather than immediate policy change. Given the combined economic and geopolitical factors, even subtle shifts in the Fed's tone could move September cut probabilities from 61% to above 80%, potentially triggering significant moves across currencies, equities, and risk assets.
#Bybit / #TheCryptoArk /#BybitResearch
About Bybit
Bybit is the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, serving a global community of over 70 million users. Founded in 2018, Bybit is redefining openness in the decentralized world by creating a simpler, open and equal ecosystem for everyone. With a strong focus on Web3, Bybit partners strategically with leading blockchain protocols to provide robust infrastructure and drive on-chain innovation. Renowned for its secure custody, diverse marketplaces, intuitive user experience, and advanced blockchain tools, Bybit bridges the gap between TradFi and DeFi, empowering builders, creators, and enthusiasts to unlock the full potential of Web3. Discover the future of decentralized finance at Bybit.com.
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