
London rental growth slows as mortgage rates fall, says Hamptons
Hamptons, the estate agency, had anticipated that rents would rise by 4.5 per cent this year, but has now reduced its forecast to 1 per cent. If its estimate proves correct, it would be the smallest annual increase in rents since 2018.
Aneisha Beveridge, head of research at Hamptons, which is owned by the Connells Group, said the 'faster-than-expected market slowdown' was due to a combination of falling mortgage rates and the weakening labour market.
The number of people looking to rent, which had been tracking well ahead of pre-pandemic levels in recent years, has fallen by 11 per cent compared with last summer and 19 per cent below 2019 levels.
'The rental market has softened more quickly than we anticipated towards the end of last year,' Beveridge said. 'What initially appeared to be a London-centric slowdown has now spread across the country. More affluent renters are becoming first-time buyers, while the economic slowdown is limiting what others can afford.'
The average rent on a newly-let property in June was 0.4 per cent higher than in the same month last year, which was the weakest annual rate of rental inflation since August 2020, according to Hamptons.
Average rents fell in London, Scotland and Wales. The biggest increase was in the Midlands, where rents were up 3.3 per cent year-on-year, and in the northwest of England, where annual rental inflation was running at 2.8 per cent in June.
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The data will be welcomed by the millions of renters around the country who have seen their costs jump over the past five years. Excluding London, the average cost of renting a home in the UK is now £1,133 a month, according to Hamptons, an increase of 39 per cent, or £317, since the start of 2020.
Despite the recent slowdown, Beveridge said, 'this isn't the end of the rental growth story'. Although she has pulled back her forecasts slightly, she still expects rents to rise by 3.5 per cent next year, followed by 3 per cent in 2027.
'The structural shortage of rental homes remains unresolved and upcoming regulatory changes, such as the Renters' Rights Bill and new EPC [Energy performance certificate] requirements, are likely to constrain supply further and add to landlords' costs,' she said.
'A slowdown in build-to-rent development this year is also expected to result in fewer new rental homes entering the market in the coming years. These pressures will continue to underpin rental growth over the medium-term, even as the market recalibrates in the short-term.'
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