Equities little changed; US yields dip as investors look to tariffs, earnings, economic data
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MSCI's global equity index advanced slightly while U.S. Treasury yields dipped and Wall Street equities were barely changed on Friday as investors waited for corporate earnings and monitored the latest U.S. tariff threats while they digested a mixed economic picture. U.S. consumer sentiment improved in July and inflation expectations declined, but households still saw substantial risk of price pressures increasing, the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers released on Friday showed. Another report showed U.S. single-family homebuilding dropped to an 11-month low in June as high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty hindered home purchases, suggesting residential investment contracted again in the second quarter.On Thursday, news of stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales and a drop in jobless claims suggested modest improvements in economic activity and helped push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record closing highs. On Friday, the mood dimmed after the Financial Times reported that U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of 15% to 20% on the European Union. The report said he was unmoved by the latest EU offer to reduce car tariffs and would keep those duties at 25% as planned."Tariff headlines this afternoon reminded investors that volatility is likely to persist through the start of August." said Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at 248 Ventures. "Investors may be taking some money off the table going into the weekend given lingering tariff uncertainty and a market that has a premium valuation after reaching new highs." She noted that these concerns were on display in shares of American Express and Netflix, which both fell on solid earnings reports and forecasts after reaching high valuations ahead of the results. Netflix ended down 5% while Amex fell 2.3%.Still, many investors had high hopes for upcoming earnings and made bullish bets ahead of July equity option expirations, said Bruce Zaro, managing director at Granite Wealth Management in Plymouth, Massachusetts."Today's action is all about option expiration as investors make bets on the meat of earnings season, which comes in the next few weeks when all the growth and technology companies report," said Zaro, noting that beyond earnings, investors want to benefit from a strong performance trend in megacap names. "There's a fear of missing out." On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 142.30 points, or 0.32%, to 44,342.19, the S&P 500 fell 0.57 points, or 0.01%, to 6,296.79 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 10.01 points, or 0.05%, to 20,895.66.For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.59%, the Nasdaq rose 1.51%, and the Dow fell 0.07%.MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 1.18 points, or 0.13%, to 927.47, hitting a record high earlier in the day.Earlier, Europe's STOXX 600 index closed down 0.01%, and was off 0.06% for the week. In currencies, the U.S. dollar slipped against the euro but was showing a weekly gain, as investors weighed central bank policy amid signs that tariffs may be starting to fuel inflation pressures and as Trump continued to publicly criticize Fed Chair Jerome Powell.The euro pared some gains after a Financial Times report on a toughening U.S. stance on European import tariffs.The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.05% to 98.46. The euro was last up 0.27% at $1.1626.Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.09% to 148.73 as polls showed Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition was in danger of losing its majority in an election on Sunday. In government bonds, U.S. Treasuries prices rose, dragging their yields lower, after comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller pushed for a rate cut later this month, while technical buying also contributed to the move higher. In contrast, most officials who have spoken publicly have indicated a desire to hold rates steady and traders are betting on a 95.3% probability that rates will stay where they are after the month-end meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 3.9 basis points to 4.424%, from 4.463% late on Thursday while the 30-year bond yield fell 1.8 basis points to 4.9958% from 5.014%.The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 4.4 basis points to 3.873%, from 3.917% late on Thursday. In commodities, crude oil futures held steady as mixed U.S. economic news offset worries the European Union's latest sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine could reduce oil supplies. U.S. crude settled down 0.3%, or 20 cents at $67.34 a barrel while Brent ended at $69.28 per barrel, down 0.35% or 24 cents on the day. Gold prices rose on Friday as a weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty boosted demand for the safe-haven metal, while platinum prices eased after reaching their highest level since 2014. Spot gold rose 0.33% to $3,349.66 an ounce.
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