JCI Q2 Earnings: How Will The Stock React?

Forbes

05-05-2025

POLAND - 2024/12/04: In this photo illustration, the Johnson Controls company logo is seen displayed ... More on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Piotr Swat/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Johnson Controls International (NYSE:JCI) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. In the past five years, JCI has experienced a positive one-day return after earnings releases in 56% of cases. When returns were positive, the median return was 2.2%, with a peak one-day positive return of 11.3%.
For traders focused on specific events, comprehending these historical trends may provide a competitive advantage, although the actual market response will primarily rely on how the results stack up against consensus predictions and market expectations. There are two main methods to utilize this historical information:
At present, consensus estimates indicate that JCI's earnings per share will be $0.79 on revenue of $5.63 billion. This is in comparison to the previous year's results of $0.78 earnings per share and $6.7 billion in revenue.
From a fundamental point of view, JCI currently has a market capitalization of $59 billion. Its revenue over the last twelve months amounted to $22 billion, and the company showed operational profitability with $2.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.8 billion.
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Here are some insights into one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Further data for the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post-earnings is summarized alongside the statistics in the following table.
JCI 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
A relatively less risky strategy (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
JCI Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
At times, the performance of peers can impact the post-earnings stock response. In fact, the pricing might start before the earnings are disclosed. Below is some historical information regarding the recent post-earnings performance of Johnson Controls International stock compared to the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just prior to Johnson Controls International. For accurate comparison, peer stock returns also denote post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
JCI Correlation With Peer Earnings
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