US tariff uncertainty looms, OPEC+ set to raise output
Brent crude futures fell 45 cents, or 0.65 per cent, to $68.66 a barrel by 0645 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude declined 44 cents, or 0.66 per cent, to $67.01 a barrel Both contracts rose to their highest in one week on Wednesday as Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, raising concerns the lingering dispute over the Middle East producer's nuclear programme may again devolve into armed conflict, and the US and Vietnam reached a preliminary trade deal.
Still, there is increasing uncertainty around US trade policy as the 90-day pause on the implementation of higher tariffs will end on July 9 without any new trade deals with several large trading partners such as the European Union and Japan.
Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies such as Russia, known as OPEC+ will likely agree to raise their output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) at their meeting this weekend.
With the uncertainty around both events, and the upcoming July Fourth Independence Day holiday in the US, "market participants will probably not want to carry too much risk into the long US weekend," ING analysts said in a note on Thursday.
Adding to the negative sentiment, a private-sector survey showed on Thursday that service activity in China, the world's biggest oil importer, expanded at the slowest pace in nine months in June as demand weakened and new export orders declined.
A surprise build in US crude inventories also highlighted demand concerns in the world's biggest crude consumer.
The US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that domestic crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to 419 million barrels last week. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a drawdown of 1.8 million barrels.
Gasoline demand on a weekly basis dropped to 8.6 million barrels per day, prompting concerns about consumption in the peak US summer driving season.
The market will be watching the release of the key US monthly employment report on Thursday to shape expectations around the depth and timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year, analysts said.
Lower interest rates could spur economic activity, which would in turn boost oil demand.
A private payrolls report on Wednesday showed a contraction for the first time in two years, though analysts cautioned there is no correlation between it and the government data. — Reuters
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Observer
7 hours ago
- Observer
Isolation amidst globalisation
The US has long stood as a pioneer of liberalisation, privatisation and globalisation (LPG), spearheading major policy shifts and contributing significantly to global institutions like the UN, WTO and WHO. Known for extending Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status — a founding principle of the WTO — the US has often used this tool to cement trade ties, even with rivals like China, Russia and Belarus. However, MFN status has also been strategically withheld, as in the cases of Cuba and North Korea. Despite its pivotal global role, recent US developments reveal a surprising turn towards isolationism. As former UK prime minister Tony Blair aptly stated, 'The only exception to globalisation is isolation'. Though full economic data is yet to emerge, global sentiment suggests a US retreat from its once-central position in international trade. The shift likely reflects changes in political leadership in early 2025 and evolving politico-economic priorities. Signs of this distancing include threats to reduce or withdraw funding from international organisations, engagement in tariff wars and a more selective stance on geopolitical conflicts — all under the banner of 'America First'. With the US accounting for 15-26 per cent of global GDP and around 8 per cent of global trade in 2022, its retreat disrupts global markets and alarms trading partners like India, Canada and China. Domestically, strict immigration crackdowns reinforce this inward focus. From January to June 2025, over 100,000 suspected illegal immigrants were arrested — an average of 750 per day, double the previous decade's rate — with approximately 200,000 deportations by May. Additionally, visa restrictions have tightened, including bans under security pretexts. Nevertheless, the world economy remains 3–5.5 times larger than the US economy. To mitigate overdependence, experts urge diversification and the rise of alternative power centres. As the US share in global trade declines, emerging markets strengthen ties. Recent meetings among China, Japan and South Korea explored ways to bypass US tariffs. Meanwhile, BRICS continues expanding, even contemplating an alternative currency to challenge the US dollar. While the US recalibrates its global stance, other economies adapt — and in doing so, signal a shift towards a more multipolar world order. Dr Niranjan Shetty The writer works with the College of Banking and Financial Studies, Muscat
Observer
a day ago
- Observer
US tariff uncertainty looms, OPEC+ set to raise output
SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell on Thursday after gaining 3 per cent in the previous session as investors are wary that higher US tariffs may be reinstated, which could cause lower fuel demand, and as major producers are expected to announce an output hike. Brent crude futures fell 45 cents, or 0.65 per cent, to $68.66 a barrel by 0645 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude declined 44 cents, or 0.66 per cent, to $67.01 a barrel Both contracts rose to their highest in one week on Wednesday as Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, raising concerns the lingering dispute over the Middle East producer's nuclear programme may again devolve into armed conflict, and the US and Vietnam reached a preliminary trade deal. Still, there is increasing uncertainty around US trade policy as the 90-day pause on the implementation of higher tariffs will end on July 9 without any new trade deals with several large trading partners such as the European Union and Japan. Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies such as Russia, known as OPEC+ will likely agree to raise their output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) at their meeting this weekend. With the uncertainty around both events, and the upcoming July Fourth Independence Day holiday in the US, "market participants will probably not want to carry too much risk into the long US weekend," ING analysts said in a note on Thursday. Adding to the negative sentiment, a private-sector survey showed on Thursday that service activity in China, the world's biggest oil importer, expanded at the slowest pace in nine months in June as demand weakened and new export orders declined. A surprise build in US crude inventories also highlighted demand concerns in the world's biggest crude consumer. The US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that domestic crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to 419 million barrels last week. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a drawdown of 1.8 million barrels. Gasoline demand on a weekly basis dropped to 8.6 million barrels per day, prompting concerns about consumption in the peak US summer driving season. The market will be watching the release of the key US monthly employment report on Thursday to shape expectations around the depth and timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year, analysts said. Lower interest rates could spur economic activity, which would in turn boost oil demand. A private payrolls report on Wednesday showed a contraction for the first time in two years, though analysts cautioned there is no correlation between it and the government data. — Reuters
Observer
a day ago
- Observer
Global newsrooms without borders
How AI is reshaping journalism In my fourteen years as a digital news editor at Oman Observer, following stints with Reuters and Times of India, I've witnessed numerous technological shifts. Yet none compare to the transformation brought about by artificial intelligence tools over the past year. What once required hours of manual curation, fact-checking, and formatting now happens in minutes, allowing our team to focus on deeper storytelling and audience engagement. This revolution isn't happening in isolation. Across the globe, major news organisations are reimagining journalism through a powerful combination of data analytics, cross-border collaboration, and AI-driven tools. The Rise of Borderless Newsrooms Reuters exemplifies this new paradigm with its Bangalore hub (where I worked for five years)—now its largest newsroom globally—serving as a centre for AI-driven journalism. This strategic approach enables 24/7 news coverage without requiring night shifts in any single location, whilst fostering specialised expertise centres that benefit the entire organisation. 'We're firmly committed to having the human in the loop to oversee any AI-assisted work,' explains Euan Rocha, Bangalore Bureau Chief at Thomson Reuters. This balance between technological advancement and editorial judgment resonates with my experience at Oman Observer, where we've embraced AI tools whilst maintaining rigorous editorial standards. Real-Time News Delivery Transformed The speed of news delivery has accelerated dramatically through AI integration. Reuters' Speed teams, which publish around 100,000 business news alerts each month, now use an AI tool called Fact Genie to scan documents in seconds and suggest newsworthy alerts. This allows journalists to publish first alerts within six seconds of receiving information—a game-changer for financial markets and breaking news. Other agencies have also implemented similar tools to help them process press releases and government statements more efficiently, ensuring our readers receive accurate information faster than ever before. The time saved allows journalists to conduct more interviews and provide deeper context—elements that AI cannot replicate. Cross-Functional Collaboration The Associated Press has demonstrated how larger organisations can share AI capabilities with smaller newsrooms through its Local News AI Initiative. Working with five local news organisations, AP developed customised solutions ranging from automated weather alerts to AI-assisted transcription of city council meetings. This collaborative approach extends beyond technology sharing. Reuters has pioneered 'pair prompting,' where journalists and data scientists work together to develop effective AI solutions. The result is technology that truly serves journalistic needs rather than forcing newsrooms to adapt to rigid systems. The Human Element Remains Essential Despite these technological advances, research consistently shows that human oversight remains paramount. The BBC's experience, documented by researchers embedded in their newsrooms, emphasises that AI tools require journalists to ensure accuracy—whether it's an AI-generated summary of a press conference or an analysis of a dataset. In my daily work overseeing social media content and video production, I've found that AI tools excel at generating initial drafts and identifying trending topics, but they cannot replace the editorial judgment that comes from years of journalistic experience and cultural understanding. The Future is Collaborative Looking ahead, the most successful news organisations will be those that embrace a borderless approach—where geographical boundaries become less relevant, information flows continuously, expertise is shared globally, and human judgment remains central. For editors like myself, this means continuing to adapt our skills whilst holding firm to the fundamental principles of journalism. The tools may change, but our commitment to accuracy, fairness, and meaningful storytelling remains constant in this new era of global newsrooms without borders.
