
Gold price prediction today: What's the gold rate outlook for May 23, 2025 - should you buy or sell?
Gold prices: A failure to reclaim ₹96000 decisively could trigger a deeper correction toward ₹94500-₹94800 support zone. (AI image)
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are set to record a weekly gain after fluctuating for the last few weeks. The gold rate is still off its all-time high and investors are wondering whether they should buy, sell or hold gold.
What gold price levels should you watch out for? Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities explains:
MCX Gold June 2025 contract is trading at ₹95600, positioned at a critical technical juncture after recent consolidation near resistance levels. The precious metal has shown signs of exhaustion near the ₹96000 zone, with technical indicators aligning for potential downside moves.
Today presents two distinct selling opportunities for intraday traders.
Gold: Current Technical Picture
The gold market is displaying classic signs of distribution after failing to sustain above key resistance levels. Price action reveals a struggling bullish momentum with the metal unable to decisively break higher, creating an ideal setup for contrarian strategies.
Key Technical Parameters:
Current Price: ₹95600
EMA 8: ₹95550
EMA 21: ₹95650
RSI (14): 57.50 (neutral with downward bias)
Bollinger Bands: Price consolidating near the middle band with upper band rejection
Previous Day's Pivot: Key levels acting as resistance barriers
Strategy 1: Sell on Rise Near ₹95800
Technical Rationale:
The ₹95800 level represents a confluence of resistance factors including the upper Bollinger Band, previous day's pivot resistance, and psychological resistance.
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This zone has repeatedly rejected upward attempts, making it an attractive sell zone.
Entry Parameters:
Sell Zone: ₹95750-95850
Stop Loss: ₹96050 (above recent swing high)
Target 1: ₹95400 (immediate support)
Target 2: ₹95200 (key breakdown level)
Target 3: ₹94950 (extended target for aggressive traders)
Execution Guidelines:
Wait for bearish reversal candlestick patterns (doji, shooting star, or bearish engulfing)
Confirm with RSI showing negative divergence or failure to cross 60
Volume should be declining on up moves approaching the sell zone
Trail stop loss to ₹95650 once Target 1 is achieved
Strategy 2: Breakdown Below ₹95250
Technical Rationale:
A decisive break below ₹95250 would confirm the failure of the recent consolidation and trigger a deeper correction. This level coincides with previous support and the lower boundary of the current trading range.
Entry Parameters:
Breakdown Level: ₹95250
Entry Price: ₹95200 (on decisive break)
Stop Loss: ₹95450 (above breakdown level)
Target 1: ₹94900 (immediate support)
Target 2: ₹94650 (next significant support)
Target 3: ₹94300 (major support zone)
Execution Guidelines:
Wait for 15-minute candle close below ₹95250 with increased volume
RSI should preferably be below 50 for confirmation
Avoid entry if breakdown occurs with extremely low volume
Consider partial profit booking at each target level
Gold Market Outlook
Gold appears to be forming a potential reversal pattern after recent gains. The metal's inability to sustain above ₹96000 levels suggests underlying weakness. Key factors supporting the bearish bias include:
1. Technical Exhaustion: Multiple rejections at resistance levels
2. Moving Average Resistance: Price struggling near EMA 21
3. Volume Pattern: Declining volume on up moves indicates lack of conviction
4. Global Factors: Strengthening dollar and rising bond yields
The precious metal faces a critical test at current levels.
A failure to reclaim ₹96000 decisively could trigger a deeper correction toward ₹94500-₹94800 support zone.
Risk Management
Both strategies require strict adherence to stop losses given the volatile nature of precious metals.
Traders should:
Never risk more than 2% of capital per trade
Use appropriate position sizing
Monitor global cues including dollar index and bond yields
Be prepared to exit if price action contradicts the analysis
Market Catalysts to Watch
US economic data releases
Federal Reserve commentary
Geopolitical developments
Dollar index movements
Global equity market sentiment
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