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Investors looking beyond the U.S. see opportunities in one small pocket of Europe

Investors looking beyond the U.S. see opportunities in one small pocket of Europe

CNBC5 hours ago
European markets have seen a resurgence this year, with multiple regional indexes outperforming their Wall Street rivals. Amid a broad push to diversify portfolios away from the U.S., some traders see an "unmatched advantage" and "really good investment opportunities" in particular area of Europe. Earlier this year, volatility arising from U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies sparked widespread demand for assets outside of the United States . One of the beneficiaries of this movement was Europe , where investors saw a stable but undervalued market. But according to Frédérique Carrier, head of investment strategy for RBC Wealth Management in the British Isles and Asia, one pocket of the European market remains overlooked by international investors. "Most of our wealth clients who enquire about Europe have France and Germany in mind, and perhaps Italy and Spain, but few think of the Nordics where macroeconomic trends are encouraging," she said. Economic resilience The Nordics, nestled in the far north of Europe, have had a mixed bag this year when it comes to the performance of their publicly traded companies. Benchmark indexes in Norway and Finland, for example, have outperformed all three major Wall Street indexes, while those in Iceland and Denmark have recorded deep year-to-date losses. Much of the underperformance in Denmark is tied to the make-up of its benchmark OMX Copenhagen index. Pharmaceutical giants Novo Nordisk and Zealand Pharma have each shed around 48% so far this year, amid threats from Trump to slap tariffs of up to 250% on pharmaceutical goods. Disappointing clinical trial results , leadership changes and profit guidance cuts also weighed on Novo's share price. However, the Danish economy is renowned for its resilience, even if its biggest companies are under pressure, and that could benefit the country's equity market, Carrier told CNBC. "Denmark is widely seen as a resilient economy, thanks to its low level of indebtedness at the national level (debt to GDP a mere 28% while it enjoys a fiscal surplus of close to 4% of GDP), even as its pharmaceutical sector — which has largely driven growth in the past — is currently in the cross hairs of President Trump's new tariffs strategy," she said in an email. Sweden, she added, was benefiting from a "mild economic upswing," while Norway's central bank could soon start cutting interest rates to stimulate the country's economy. Markets are widely expecting Norges Bank to cut rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting in September, according to LSEG data. "Finland is the outlier, with a more subdued macroeconomic outlook than its peers," Carrier added. She noted that equity investors looking to allocate to European stocks should take "a highly selective approach to investment." "Our focus would be on high quality companies with a strong business model, a broad international revenue base and robust cash flow generation, an area where the Nordics are particularly well represented," she said. "Such quality does not necessarily come cheap and investors might want to wait for an opportunistic price correction before building positions." 'Unmatched advantage' The Nordic region is rich with opportunities in emerging industries, according to Tor Langøy, founder of London-based investment advisory BD Globe Capital Partners and Viking Digital Campus, a hydro-powered digital corporate campus on Norway's west coast. "The Nordic region is rapidly emerging as a strategic hub for AI and hyperscale data center investment, attracting unprecedented global capital," he told CNBC. Various high-profile companies have recently unveiled large-scale investments in the Nordics this year, many of which are for tech infrastructure. Brookfield Asset Management, which manages assets worth more than $1 trillion, announced in June it would allocate up to 95 billion Swedish krona ($10 billion) to support the development of AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, OpenAI announced at the end of July that it would spearhead a multibillion-dollar data center project in Norway that would deliver 100,000 Nvidia graphics processing units by the end of 2026. Langøy said that Norway in particular had an "unmatched advantage" when it comes to investment opportunities. "Norway offers a rare combination of attributes that few — if any — markets can match," he said. "[It boasts the] lowest electricity costs in Europe, powered by 100% renewable hydropower, accelerated grid connection timelines, enabling faster go-to-market, [and] supportive, pro–data center government policies that welcome strategic infrastructure investment." He argued that Norway will "continue to lead" thanks to its energy security, connectivity resilience and geopolitical stability. In the second quarter of this year, Swedish investment firm Investor AB saw a 6% return on its listed company holdings. Among those holdings are various Nordic firms, including telecom giant Ericsson, defense contractor Saab and home appliance manufacturer Electrolux. During the reporting period, AB Investor invested 1.2 billion Swedish kronor to increase its stake in Ericsson to 9.7%. "As the world leader in mobile network technology, Ericsson is well positioned to capitalize on its strong market positions and find new growth avenues over time," AB Investor's President and CEO Christian Cederholm, said in the firm's second-quarter earnings report. "While we operate in an unpredictable world, I remain confident in Investor's and our companies' ability to generate attractive long-term total returns." Cederholm later told CNBC that there were also opportunities in the Nordic region's private markets. "For the private assets we are looking for, i.e. high-quality companies with long track records of good, profitable growth, really there are very seldom times when you can make a bargain," he said. "So we're not bargain hunters, we're in this for the long term … on the positive side, I would say that between our focus markets, which are the Nordics and North America, there are a really good investment opportunities." — CNBC's Arjun Kharpal contributed to this report.
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How retail accounting could distort profitability as tariffs take effect
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"The more costs retailers absorb in retail accounting, the greater the risk of overstating profitability during periods of increasing costs, such as tariff increases," she said. Walmart management briefed Trump this spring about the impact its accounting method may have on results in a high-tariff environment, according to a person familiar with the discussion, who asked to remain unnamed while speaking about private conversations. Still, James Bowie, managing director in EY's technical accounting advisory group, warned "all of the inventory costing methodologies will be affected in some ways." It typically takes a large, non-fast fashion retailer using RIM roughly two to four quarters for cost volatility to settle and profitability to get closer to its true level, according to PwC. The method could make profitability look higher initially, then lower in a subsequent quarter, before it has time to stabilize. "It's kind of like you've got a speed boat on the price," he said. "I can turn pretty quickly, but I've got a cruise liner that is carrying all my average of my inventory. It takes a little longer for it to turn and so even though they might ultimately be able to go the same speed, it takes a little bit of time for that one turn to take place." While RIM is more likely to lead to a temporary overstating of profitability, it can also wind up understanding profits if tariffs are negotiated lower. Bowie said if a retailer responds to lower tariff rates by cutting retail prices, under RIM accounting, "it looks like my margin has eroded, but it's only because I now am waiting for the cost relationship to catch back up, so [it] might look like there's margin compression even in a period of decreasing tariffs." Furman added that PwC is seeing "a clear disconnect" for companies that use RIM accounting. "Companies might be doing all the right things: navigating sourcing challenges, managing suppliers, and even mitigating tariffs," she said. "But, those efforts often aren't reflected in the financials. That misalignment between operational execution and reporting for those using RIM is exacerbating the challenges retailers face." The retail inventory method of accounting is an older method that was most useful for retailers when they had many items from a range of categories without an easy, or technological, way to track inventory. "Inventory accounting methods existed before this thing called Excel," said Bowie. "[A retailer] had an abacus and a dream trying to figure out what you're going to do." Over time, technology made it easy to use actual costs rather than averages, so cost accounting became more common. As retailers grow and accounting methods become ingrained, it's difficult, though not impossible, to switch tactics. Macy's and Nordstrom recently made the change to cost accounting. PwC said it takes an average of two to three years to make the transition from one accounting method to another and can require millions of dollars and a restatement of previous years' financials to provide apples-to-apples comparisons. Still, the accounting firm said about half of retailers that use RIM have considered switching. CNBC worked with PwC's Furman and Suni Shamapande, the firm's U.S. retail customer experience and operations leader, to develop a simplified example demonstrating the difference between RIM and weighted average cost accounting in how they affect gross profit margins. The example demonstrates how RIM accounting can "overstate" true profitability at a moment in time when costs increase quickly. For the purposes of this example, PwC and CNBC used weighted average cost accounting, which takes a SKU-level weight average and blends all costs together, regardless of purchase date. A SKU is a stock-keeping unit, which retailers use to track inventory of specific items. Base case: No tariffs The base case, which does not include tariffs, uses three different T-shirts types from three different countries. Each type of T-shirt, or individual SKU, has a different cost and is sold to consumers at a different retail price. The retailer bought each type of T-shirt in different quantities, as did consumers. Here's how the math differs to start. The gross profit margin for the items calculated using weighted average cost accounting is 46%. Using RIM, it's 53%. Tariff case 1: Retailer's costs increase, all else remains the same If the retailer's cost for each T-shirt goes up as a result of tariffs, but everything else — units bought, units sold and retail price — remains the same, gross margin falls if calculated using cost accounting and RIM. But it would still be higher under RIM than if the company used cost accounting. Here's the math for our simplified example: Tariff case 2: Retailer raises prices to offset higher costs If the retailer passes on the full dollar value of the tariff cost to the customer, and units bought and sold stay the same, gross margin improves under both accounting methods. In our example, it goes to 36% in cost accounting and 47% with RIM. Both gross margin percentages are lower than the base case, which assumes no tariffs, but the percentage change is smaller under RIM than under cost accounting. Tariff case 3: Retailer raises prices and units bought and sold both fall Here's where it gets interesting, and likely more realistic, to reflect supply and demand choices a retailer and consumer would likely make as costs rise. If the retailer passes on the full dollar value of tariffs to the customer and also sells fewer items to consumers at the higher retail price, RIM makes profit margins look temporarily rosier. Gross margin in our example falls to 27% under cost accounting, but holds steady under RIM at 47% even though units sold have changed. Here's where you see how the ratio of cost of goods sold to selling price hasn't had time to adjust.

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