Wall Street is flying amid Trump chaos
They, however, sail serenely on. The S&P 500 is up more than 7 per cent this year, Nasdaq 8.6 per cent and the AI-driven bigger technology stocks, as a group, 15 per cent. Bond yields, at both the short and long ends of the yield curve, have fallen since the start of the year.
The apparent complacency of investors could be explained by the 'TACO' trade – a conviction that Trump Always Chickens Out – but that would suggest a lack of sophistication and awareness.
Wall Street is brushing off the effects of the Trump chaos. Credit: Bloomberg
Trump's tariffs are real.
His 10 per cent baseline tariffs are in place, as are his sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminium, copper, autos, auto parts, small packages, imports from China and some from Canada and Mexico.
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His punitive 'reciprocal' tariffs are scheduled to go live on August 1. Whether or not they are as Draconian as those unveiled on April 2, they will exacerbate the existing effects of Trump's trade wars and lengthen the time it will take before the full effects of the tariffs are felt and can be assessed.
Trump's transparent attempts to force the Fed to cut US interest rates and his foreshadowing of the appointment of a Fed chair who will accede to his wishes are also very real.
Rather than chickening out, as he did when he deferred the introduction of the reciprocal tariffs he announced on April 2 after the markets shuddered, Trump now seems emboldened by the return of investor optimism.
Whether the market calm will survive when the reality of Trump's reciprocal tariffs hits home in 10 days' time or when he appoints his 'yes man' to be Powell's successor is the trillion-dollar (multi-trillion dollars?) question.
Investors ought to be concerned about Trump's tariffs because they are already having an impact on inflation and some corporate profits.
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Last week's June inflation data, while apparently benign, did blip up to 2.7 per cent (the Fed's target is 2 per cent) and there were material increase in the prices of those goods most exposed to the tariffs already in place, even though importers had rushed to stockpile their imports to get ahead of the imposition of the tariffs.
Those indications of rising inflation can only strengthen as those inventories are run down and the cost pressures on US importers – who pay the tariffs – rise. Already retailers and others are talking about price rises to offset the tariffs' cost.
On Monday, Stellantis, the manufacturer of Chrysler, Jeep, Ram, Peugeot and Fiat vehicles, announced a €2.3 billion ($4.1 billion) first half loss.
It said the tariffs cost it €300 million after factory shutdowns had caused a 25 per cent reduction in deliveries of its cars to US buyers. It also wrote off another €300 million from the value of clean air credits that it held after Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill (the Republicans budget bill) removed the penalties for companies' failure to comply with clean air standards.
Trump has continued his attacks on Fed chair Jerome Powell. Credit: Bloomberg
General Motors, which also reports this week, has said the impact of Trump's tariffs will cost it about $US4.5 billion ($6.9 billion) this year. It imported nearly half the cars it sold last year from Mexico and South Korea.
So far, the tariffs haven't had a material impact on the price of cars – they actually fell in June – or the volumes sold. That may be because buyers acted to get in ahead of the tariffs, as they may have done in other categories. That would explain the reasonably healthy retail sales numbers.
As the impact of the tariffs gradually shows up in companies' costs as their inventories run down and their capacity to absorb those costs lessens, there will be price rises and increased inflation and, inevitably, a response from consumers.
There's also the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill, which added a raft of new tax and spending measures to Trump's 2017 tax cuts for companies and the wealthy. The Congressional Budget Office's most recent update of the impact of that legislation is that it will add a net $US3.4 trillion to US government debt over the next decade.
Foreign investors, it seems, are more wary of the Trump trade and central bank agendas than the locals.
The bill is stimulatory at a time when inflation is just starting to accelerate.
In those circumstances, Trump's repeated demand for the Fed to cut its policy rate by 3 percentage points would look ludicrous and the market's would be starting to fear rising, not falling interest rates.
Any undermining of Powell before his term expires next May, or the appointment of someone obviously going to try to do Trump's bidding, would also see the US yield curve steepen.
The yields on short-term securities would fall in expectation of a lower federal funds rate (analogous to the Reserve Bank's cash rate), but the yields on longer-term bonds would rise to compensate for the likely higher inflation rates.
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The mixture of Trump's tariffs and the politicisation of the Fed would probably impact both economic growth and the inflation rate.
With the S&P 500 trading at 27 times the earnings of its constituent companies last year and 22 times the bullish forecasts for this year's earnings, any significant rise in market interest rates would have a very material impact on share prices.
For the moment, because the data has yet to reflect anything other than the earliest impact of Trump's less impactful tariffs, the only dissonant note within the markets is being sounded by the market for the US dollar, which has lost more than 10 per cent of its value this year.
Foreign investors, it seems, are more wary of the Trump trade and central bank agendas than the locals.
The Market Recap newsletter is a wrap of the day's trading. Get it each weekday afternoon.
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ABC News
10 minutes ago
- ABC News
Can Trump contain China's AI boom?
Sam Hawley: For so long, the tech bros of Silicon Valley have dominated the AI race. Now there's a boom underway in China, giving them a run for their money and Donald Trump doesn't like it. Today, Kyle Chan from the global policy think tank, the Rand Corporation, on why the president is so desperate for the US to beat Beijing. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Sam Hawley: Kyle, there's a global race going on right now to be the world leader in AI. This is a race basically to make technologies that rival the human brain, right? Kyle Chan: Yeah. So there really is this global race. And in particular, you have the US and China with many of the world's best AI models. And it's quite impressive to see almost every day, it feels like a new model coming out with new advanced capabilities. So, yes,getting close, if not even beating what we can do ourselves. Sam Hawley: Yeah, it's fascinating to watch how quickly this is moving. Donald Trump, US President: I don't like the name artificial anything because it's not artificial. It's genius. It's pure genius. Sam Hawley: Donald Trump, of course, wants to make sure that America wins this race. Donald Trump, US President: America is the country that started the AI race. And as president of the United States, I'm here today to declare that America is going to win it. We're going to work hard. We're going to win it. Sam Hawley: He even gave a speech with that title, winning the AI race. Donald Trump, US President: Because we will not allow any foreign nation to beat us. Our children will not live on a planet controlled by the algorithms of the adversaries advancing values and interests contrary to our own. Sam Hawley: He's pretty invested in this, isn't he? Kyle Chan: That's right. Yeah, this has been a big topic throughout his administration so far. I think a lot of what US policy is focused on, including the current Trump administration, is on winning the race to AGI. I think there's a strong sense that this could be a pivotal turning point. Sam Hawley: Remind me, what is AGI? Kyle Chan: So artificial general intelligence. There's this idea that perhaps one day it could reach a point where it could replicate or even exceed the abilities of humans to do, say, certain kinds of office work or certain kinds of research. This could even extend into areas like military capabilities, like autonomous weapon systems, for example. Reaching this stage where AI is as good as, if not better than, human reasoning. Sam Hawley: So we might not be needed actually anymore. We won't need to think anymore, right? Kyle Chan: We'll see. Sam Hawley: Exactly. All right. Well, Kyle, of course, up until now, the US has really dominated this market. All the big tech giants who've developed AI, things like ChatGPT, they're sitting there in Silicon Valley. Kyle Chan: Oh, yeah. So you have OpenAI, currently led by Sam Altman. You have Google, which has been coming out with a number of various sort of cutting edge models with its Gemini series. You have Claude, which is very well known from Anthropic, well known for its coding capabilities. You have Meta as well as xAI. So there's actually quite a quite a large roster of strong American AI companies. Sam Hawley: So for many, many years, America's really led the world when it comes to AI development. But as you say, China has been creeping up on it. And that has the US administration a bit worried. It even tried to stop Beijing's advancement in this space, didn't it? By banning Nvidia from selling advanced chips to China. Just remind me what happened then. Kyle Chan: Yes, that's right. So this was actually in the Biden administration. You had very strong export controls placed on especially Nvidia's more advanced chips. And so here you actually have several rounds of downgrading of what kinds of Nvidia chips could be exported in China. Sam Hawley: So the US, in part, was saying that it was deeply concerned that AI could be used by the Chinese for military purposes. Kyle Chan: That's right. Yeah. And, you know, to be sure, it was also part of this broader idea that advanced semiconductors in general can be used for a whole range of important applications. So in addition to AI, there are also more direct military implications for this ban. Sam Hawley: All right. So Biden brought in this ban to stop these really advanced chips from being exported from the United States to China. But intriguingly, Trump just recently has now removed that ban. Do we know why he did that and how significant is that decision? Kyle Chan: Yes. What's interesting is I think whereas before people expected maybe a continuous ratcheting up of these export controls, Trump has reversed the ban on the H20 chips. Interestingly, a new line of argument has gotten a lot of prominence, which is that Nvidia and other US tech companies who sort of, you know, quote, unquote, sell the picks and shovels, that is, build the infrastructure and build the sort of underlying platforms for AI development, that American companies should be the ones who are dominant in the world and that people should build on the American tech stack as it were, rather than cede, say, the Chinese market to its competitors like Huawei, which is also developing its own AI chips. So the idea here was that rather than block out the Chinese market entirely, that the US should stay engaged, at least in terms of providing some kind of sweet spot of infrastructure, but not not too advanced in order to actually accelerate China's efforts. Sam Hawley: And that's the argument that the Nvidia boss, Jensen Huang, has been making to Donald Trump. Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO: This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for America to have AI technology leadership. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for China to have AI leadership. And if we want to be a leader, we have to engage developers all over the world. We have to engage markets all over the world. Sam Hawley: So the best way to beat China at AI is to actually help China to compete. Have I got that right? Kyle Chan: Yes. Yes. The logic, it can be hard to parse out sometimes, but yes, this is one of the main arguments. Sam Hawley: All right. So, Kyle, Donald Trump, he's delivered this speech outlining the importance of the US dominating the AI market. Donald Trump, US President: America needs new data centres, new semiconductor and chip manufacturing facilities, new power plants and transmission lines. And under my leadership, we're going to get that job done. Sam Hawley: But as we mentioned, in China, it's full speed ahead. There really is a boom going on there right now, isn't there? Kyle Chan: Absolutely. Yeah. So, I mean, everyone now knows about DeepSeek and the DeepSeek moment. News report: The release of a high performing Chinese rival to chat GPT has sent shockwaves through the global tech sector and caused US tech stocks to fall. Kyle Chan: A Chinese AI model for the first time seemed to be almost on par with the US leading models. And this was done at a fraction of the cost in terms of compute. And this was done sort of in defiance of US efforts to put on export controls and to restrict Chinese compute capacity. But DeepSeek is really the tip of the iceberg. So there's a whole set of very competitive Chinese AI models. You think about Alibaba's Qwen, you think about Tencent, ByteDance. There's Moonshot, a whole host of startups as well. Most of these companies now, they all have their own sort of chatbot like chat GPT, where anyone can download the app or go to the website and just start chatting directly with the AI model, the underlying model itself. And so what's interesting is that it's not just one company or one startup per se. It's actually a whole sort of lineup, in a way, a Chinese team competing with the US one. Sam Hawley: And these AI apps, what they haven't needed, that chip that was banned, I guess, from being exported from the United States. China's done it on its own, has it? Kyle Chan: Well, yeah. So it's complicated because actually many of these Chinese AI companies, they do use Nvidia chips. They do, including the chip that was banned, the H20. At the same time, though, they're trying to experiment and test Chinese domestic alternatives, knowing very well that, you know, in the long run, they may no longer have access to Nvidia's GPUs. So there's a question right now within the Chinese tech community, Chinese AI policy about how hard to push for this domestic alternative versus to continue to rely on what are otherwise better performing Nvidia chips. Sam Hawley: All right. Well, Kyle, just unpack for me now. What's actually driving this AI boom in China? Because it has a lot to do with the Communist Party's backing of this, doesn't it, of the government's funding of it. Kyle Chan: That's right. So what's interesting is that Beijing is pouring resources into the entire, what I call the entire AI tech stack. So they're investing in not only chips, as we mentioned earlier, but in the rollout of data centres, often tied to renewable energy. They are investing in the development of foundation models. They have special local government AI labs. And then all the way to applications, especially in so-called hard tech areas like robotics and industrial automation. So you can see sort of this full range of support. And of course, at the very heart of this, I think is ultimately the emphasis on talent development and basic research. So a lot of the universities in China, many of them are producing really world class AI developers. Sam Hawley: And we've seen this before, haven't we? From the Chinese government when it wanted to boost the EV market. It did the same thing. It did the same thing with solar and it works. Kyle Chan: Yeah, that's right. They've tried this playbook before and they're going to try it again. But the funny thing is, yeah, AI is sort of a different beast. And so, you know, for example, just in the past year, we have this shift towards reason models. And that already has thrown a bit of a wrench into some of the industrial policy efforts that China has made in AI. So some of the data centre build out that was government backed. You know, there's a question now about whether that is fit for purpose with the shift towards this sort of new AI paradigm. And it could change again. So it's a fast moving space. Sam Hawley: All right. So, Kyle, there is this race going on between the United States and China to dominate AI development. But tell me, why is that so important? Why does it matter who wins this race in the end? Kyle Chan: So the AI race, I think, is especially important now because it has implications for economic growth, long term productivity. There's a sense both in the US and in China that AI could help boost a whole range of sectors. From education, health care, biotech, drug discovery, manufacturing services. So on the one hand, you have this sort of economic implication. On the other hand, there are military implications. So AI could be used for developing autonomous systems. You think about drones or swarms of drones that are able to navigate on the battlefield on their own. Or you think about missile defence capabilities that might use AI or satellite technology that might use AI. So there are both security and economic repercussions for, you know, the question of sort of who is ahead in the race for AI. Sam Hawley: Yeah. And I note that Sam Altman from OpenAI says he wants to make sure that democratic AI wins over authoritarian AI. What do you make of that? Kyle Chan: Yeah, that's right. I mean, it's an interesting idea because right now there's also this battle over sort of diffusion and who can get their models out into the world. And so it's not just a matter of, you know, who has the best model, but also which model is more widely used. And I think right now what's interesting is a lot of Chinese models are open source or at least open weights. That is people, companies, organisations, individuals can download these models and run them locally, run them themselves. And what this means is that a Chinese type of AI might end up diffusing more broadly, perhaps maybe outside of the U.S. into other countries. Sam Hawley: All right. Well, it's a fascinating battle. Kyle, what do you think? What's your prediction? Who's going to come out on top in the end? Kyle Chan: In a sense, I do see that with some of the industrial policy in China, with some of the government support, as well as perhaps more importantly, different sorts of attitudes towards AI in China. There are some surveys that have shown that people in China more broadly seem to be more open to adopting AI and see it as a more positive force in society. That could play a key role in rolling out and incorporating AI into more areas of life. So that's one area that I would watch very closely. Sam Hawley: Kyle Chan is a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University and an adjunct researcher at the Rand Corporation. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead and Sam Dunn. Audio production by Cinnamon Nippard. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. ABC News Daily will be back again on Monday. Thanks for listening.


The Advertiser
29 minutes ago
- The Advertiser
S&P 500, Nasdaq move higher after mixed earnings
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have risen, as investors sifted through a patchwork of earnings from megacaps like Alphabet and Tesla, while the Dow has been weighed down by losses in UnitedHealth and IBM. In early trading on Thursday, the S&P 500 gained 10.62 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 6,369.85 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 66.26 points, or 0.33 per cent, to 21,086.27. Alphabet rose 1.9 per cent after the Google parent raised its 2025 capital spending forecast by $US10 billion ($A15 billion) to $US85 billion ($A129 billion), shrugging off trade jitters, while electric vehicle maker Tesla tumbled 7.6 per cent as CEO Elon Musk warned of "a few rough quarters" due to cuts in EV incentives. Losses in UnitedHealth, IBM and Honeywell weighed on the blue-chip Dow, which fell 0.6 per cent -though it remained close to its December 4 record high. UnitedHealth lost 2.3 per cent. The insurer revealed it's cooperating with a Department of Justice probe into its Medicare practices, following reports of both criminal and civil investigations. IBM sank 9.5 per cent as its second-quarter results fell flat with investors, hampered by disappointing sales in its core software division. Honeywell, meanwhile, dipped 5.2 per cent despite topping Wall Street's expectations and raising its annual outlook. On the trade front, an EU spokesperson hinted that a deal was "within reach"—one that could slap a broad 15 per cent tariff on imports across the 27-member bloc, according to diplomats. Meanwhile, fresh signs of progress emerged after President Donald Trump struck an agreement with Japan, slicing tariffs on Japanese goods to 15 per cent. China and South Korea are also scrambling to clinch their own deals and sidestep Trump's hefty duties. Yet, some of Wall Street's heavyweights were starting to feel the sting of Trump's sweeping tariffs, injecting a dose of caution into the market mood. American Airlines fell 9.2 per cent after forecasting a bigger-than-expected third-quarter loss, hurt by sluggish domestic travel demand. Shares of ServiceNow rose 5.5 per cent after the software firm raised its annual subscription revenue forecast. Markets were also monitoring developments after the White House surprised investors that Trump - fresh from stepping up his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell - would pay a visit to the US central bank's headquarters later in the day. With the Fed widely expected to hold rates steady at next week's meeting, traders are now pricing in a 62 per cent chance of a September rate cut, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The latest Labour Department report showed weekly jobless claims fell to 217,000—well below estimates—signalling continued resilience in the US job market. "It (data) is a good guide for the health of the economy and this week's jobless claims show that the economy is ticking along just nicely," said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors. US business activity gained momentum in July, but companies hiked prices on goods and services—a move that's fuelling economists' predictions of faster inflation in the months ahead, largely driven by rising import tariffs Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 2.05-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.63-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted 21 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 40 new highs and 13 new lows. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have risen, as investors sifted through a patchwork of earnings from megacaps like Alphabet and Tesla, while the Dow has been weighed down by losses in UnitedHealth and IBM. In early trading on Thursday, the S&P 500 gained 10.62 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 6,369.85 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 66.26 points, or 0.33 per cent, to 21,086.27. Alphabet rose 1.9 per cent after the Google parent raised its 2025 capital spending forecast by $US10 billion ($A15 billion) to $US85 billion ($A129 billion), shrugging off trade jitters, while electric vehicle maker Tesla tumbled 7.6 per cent as CEO Elon Musk warned of "a few rough quarters" due to cuts in EV incentives. Losses in UnitedHealth, IBM and Honeywell weighed on the blue-chip Dow, which fell 0.6 per cent -though it remained close to its December 4 record high. UnitedHealth lost 2.3 per cent. The insurer revealed it's cooperating with a Department of Justice probe into its Medicare practices, following reports of both criminal and civil investigations. IBM sank 9.5 per cent as its second-quarter results fell flat with investors, hampered by disappointing sales in its core software division. Honeywell, meanwhile, dipped 5.2 per cent despite topping Wall Street's expectations and raising its annual outlook. On the trade front, an EU spokesperson hinted that a deal was "within reach"—one that could slap a broad 15 per cent tariff on imports across the 27-member bloc, according to diplomats. Meanwhile, fresh signs of progress emerged after President Donald Trump struck an agreement with Japan, slicing tariffs on Japanese goods to 15 per cent. China and South Korea are also scrambling to clinch their own deals and sidestep Trump's hefty duties. Yet, some of Wall Street's heavyweights were starting to feel the sting of Trump's sweeping tariffs, injecting a dose of caution into the market mood. American Airlines fell 9.2 per cent after forecasting a bigger-than-expected third-quarter loss, hurt by sluggish domestic travel demand. Shares of ServiceNow rose 5.5 per cent after the software firm raised its annual subscription revenue forecast. Markets were also monitoring developments after the White House surprised investors that Trump - fresh from stepping up his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell - would pay a visit to the US central bank's headquarters later in the day. With the Fed widely expected to hold rates steady at next week's meeting, traders are now pricing in a 62 per cent chance of a September rate cut, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The latest Labour Department report showed weekly jobless claims fell to 217,000—well below estimates—signalling continued resilience in the US job market. "It (data) is a good guide for the health of the economy and this week's jobless claims show that the economy is ticking along just nicely," said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors. US business activity gained momentum in July, but companies hiked prices on goods and services—a move that's fuelling economists' predictions of faster inflation in the months ahead, largely driven by rising import tariffs Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 2.05-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.63-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted 21 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 40 new highs and 13 new lows. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have risen, as investors sifted through a patchwork of earnings from megacaps like Alphabet and Tesla, while the Dow has been weighed down by losses in UnitedHealth and IBM. In early trading on Thursday, the S&P 500 gained 10.62 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 6,369.85 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 66.26 points, or 0.33 per cent, to 21,086.27. Alphabet rose 1.9 per cent after the Google parent raised its 2025 capital spending forecast by $US10 billion ($A15 billion) to $US85 billion ($A129 billion), shrugging off trade jitters, while electric vehicle maker Tesla tumbled 7.6 per cent as CEO Elon Musk warned of "a few rough quarters" due to cuts in EV incentives. Losses in UnitedHealth, IBM and Honeywell weighed on the blue-chip Dow, which fell 0.6 per cent -though it remained close to its December 4 record high. UnitedHealth lost 2.3 per cent. The insurer revealed it's cooperating with a Department of Justice probe into its Medicare practices, following reports of both criminal and civil investigations. IBM sank 9.5 per cent as its second-quarter results fell flat with investors, hampered by disappointing sales in its core software division. Honeywell, meanwhile, dipped 5.2 per cent despite topping Wall Street's expectations and raising its annual outlook. On the trade front, an EU spokesperson hinted that a deal was "within reach"—one that could slap a broad 15 per cent tariff on imports across the 27-member bloc, according to diplomats. Meanwhile, fresh signs of progress emerged after President Donald Trump struck an agreement with Japan, slicing tariffs on Japanese goods to 15 per cent. China and South Korea are also scrambling to clinch their own deals and sidestep Trump's hefty duties. Yet, some of Wall Street's heavyweights were starting to feel the sting of Trump's sweeping tariffs, injecting a dose of caution into the market mood. American Airlines fell 9.2 per cent after forecasting a bigger-than-expected third-quarter loss, hurt by sluggish domestic travel demand. Shares of ServiceNow rose 5.5 per cent after the software firm raised its annual subscription revenue forecast. Markets were also monitoring developments after the White House surprised investors that Trump - fresh from stepping up his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell - would pay a visit to the US central bank's headquarters later in the day. With the Fed widely expected to hold rates steady at next week's meeting, traders are now pricing in a 62 per cent chance of a September rate cut, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The latest Labour Department report showed weekly jobless claims fell to 217,000—well below estimates—signalling continued resilience in the US job market. "It (data) is a good guide for the health of the economy and this week's jobless claims show that the economy is ticking along just nicely," said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors. US business activity gained momentum in July, but companies hiked prices on goods and services—a move that's fuelling economists' predictions of faster inflation in the months ahead, largely driven by rising import tariffs Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 2.05-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.63-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted 21 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 40 new highs and 13 new lows. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have risen, as investors sifted through a patchwork of earnings from megacaps like Alphabet and Tesla, while the Dow has been weighed down by losses in UnitedHealth and IBM. In early trading on Thursday, the S&P 500 gained 10.62 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 6,369.85 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 66.26 points, or 0.33 per cent, to 21,086.27. Alphabet rose 1.9 per cent after the Google parent raised its 2025 capital spending forecast by $US10 billion ($A15 billion) to $US85 billion ($A129 billion), shrugging off trade jitters, while electric vehicle maker Tesla tumbled 7.6 per cent as CEO Elon Musk warned of "a few rough quarters" due to cuts in EV incentives. Losses in UnitedHealth, IBM and Honeywell weighed on the blue-chip Dow, which fell 0.6 per cent -though it remained close to its December 4 record high. UnitedHealth lost 2.3 per cent. The insurer revealed it's cooperating with a Department of Justice probe into its Medicare practices, following reports of both criminal and civil investigations. IBM sank 9.5 per cent as its second-quarter results fell flat with investors, hampered by disappointing sales in its core software division. Honeywell, meanwhile, dipped 5.2 per cent despite topping Wall Street's expectations and raising its annual outlook. On the trade front, an EU spokesperson hinted that a deal was "within reach"—one that could slap a broad 15 per cent tariff on imports across the 27-member bloc, according to diplomats. Meanwhile, fresh signs of progress emerged after President Donald Trump struck an agreement with Japan, slicing tariffs on Japanese goods to 15 per cent. China and South Korea are also scrambling to clinch their own deals and sidestep Trump's hefty duties. Yet, some of Wall Street's heavyweights were starting to feel the sting of Trump's sweeping tariffs, injecting a dose of caution into the market mood. American Airlines fell 9.2 per cent after forecasting a bigger-than-expected third-quarter loss, hurt by sluggish domestic travel demand. Shares of ServiceNow rose 5.5 per cent after the software firm raised its annual subscription revenue forecast. Markets were also monitoring developments after the White House surprised investors that Trump - fresh from stepping up his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell - would pay a visit to the US central bank's headquarters later in the day. With the Fed widely expected to hold rates steady at next week's meeting, traders are now pricing in a 62 per cent chance of a September rate cut, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The latest Labour Department report showed weekly jobless claims fell to 217,000—well below estimates—signalling continued resilience in the US job market. "It (data) is a good guide for the health of the economy and this week's jobless claims show that the economy is ticking along just nicely," said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors. US business activity gained momentum in July, but companies hiked prices on goods and services—a move that's fuelling economists' predictions of faster inflation in the months ahead, largely driven by rising import tariffs Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 2.05-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.63-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted 21 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 40 new highs and 13 new lows.


The Advertiser
32 minutes ago
- The Advertiser
Trump to check out Federal Reserve's pricey renovations
President Donald Trump plans to step foot in the Federal Reserve as his allies scrutinise its expensive building renovations, a highly personal and confrontational escalation of his campaign to pressure the central bank to slash interest rates. Trump administration officials have used concerns about the building overhaul to cast doubt on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's decision-making. They were scheduled to inspect the site on Thursday, and the White House announced late Wednesday that the president would also be visiting. The visit reflects Trump's disregard for the traditional independence of the Fed, which plays a foundational role in the American economy by setting monetary policy that is supposed to be free of political influence. While previous presidents have criticised the Fed's decisions, Trump's sustained campaign is an unusual and, his critics say, dangerous departure from the norm. He has called on Powell to resign, insulted him repeatedly and suggested he could be fired. More recently, Trump has said he has no plans to oust Powell, which could be illegal. Pushing Powell out also would send shockwaves through global markets, potentially having the opposite effect that Trump wants as he pushes for lower borrowing costs. Trump, a Republican, appointed Powell during his first term, and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, extended his tenure. Powell's term doesn't end until next May, and he's previously insisted that he will serve until then. Not everyone in Trump's administration agrees with the president's contention that Powell needs to resign. "There's nothing that tells me that he should step down right now," said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whom Trump has floated as a potential replacement for Powell, in a recent interview with Fox Business. "He's been a good public servant." Trump has criticised Powell for months because the chair has kept the short-term interest rate the Fed controls at 4.3 per cent this year, after cutting it three times last year. Powell says the Fed wants to see how the economy responds to Trump's sweeping tariffs on imports, which Powell says could push up inflation. Powell's caution has infuriated Trump, who has demanded the Fed cut borrowing costs to spur the economy and reduce the interest rates the federal government pays on its debt. Trump will likely be disappointed again soon. A key Fed committee is expected to keep rates where they are when it meets next week. The Fed has been renovating its Washington headquarters and a neighbouring building. With some of the construction occurring underground and as building materials have soared in price after inflation spiked in 2021 and 2022, the estimated cost has ballooned from $US1.9 billion ($A2.9 billion) to about $US2.5 billion ($A3.8 billion). When asked last week if the costly rebuilding could be grounds to fire Powell, Trump said: "I think it sort of is". "When you spend $US2.5 billion ($A3.8 billion) on, really, a renovation. I think it's really disgraceful," Trump said. President Donald Trump plans to step foot in the Federal Reserve as his allies scrutinise its expensive building renovations, a highly personal and confrontational escalation of his campaign to pressure the central bank to slash interest rates. Trump administration officials have used concerns about the building overhaul to cast doubt on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's decision-making. They were scheduled to inspect the site on Thursday, and the White House announced late Wednesday that the president would also be visiting. The visit reflects Trump's disregard for the traditional independence of the Fed, which plays a foundational role in the American economy by setting monetary policy that is supposed to be free of political influence. While previous presidents have criticised the Fed's decisions, Trump's sustained campaign is an unusual and, his critics say, dangerous departure from the norm. He has called on Powell to resign, insulted him repeatedly and suggested he could be fired. More recently, Trump has said he has no plans to oust Powell, which could be illegal. Pushing Powell out also would send shockwaves through global markets, potentially having the opposite effect that Trump wants as he pushes for lower borrowing costs. Trump, a Republican, appointed Powell during his first term, and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, extended his tenure. Powell's term doesn't end until next May, and he's previously insisted that he will serve until then. Not everyone in Trump's administration agrees with the president's contention that Powell needs to resign. "There's nothing that tells me that he should step down right now," said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whom Trump has floated as a potential replacement for Powell, in a recent interview with Fox Business. "He's been a good public servant." Trump has criticised Powell for months because the chair has kept the short-term interest rate the Fed controls at 4.3 per cent this year, after cutting it three times last year. Powell says the Fed wants to see how the economy responds to Trump's sweeping tariffs on imports, which Powell says could push up inflation. Powell's caution has infuriated Trump, who has demanded the Fed cut borrowing costs to spur the economy and reduce the interest rates the federal government pays on its debt. Trump will likely be disappointed again soon. A key Fed committee is expected to keep rates where they are when it meets next week. The Fed has been renovating its Washington headquarters and a neighbouring building. With some of the construction occurring underground and as building materials have soared in price after inflation spiked in 2021 and 2022, the estimated cost has ballooned from $US1.9 billion ($A2.9 billion) to about $US2.5 billion ($A3.8 billion). When asked last week if the costly rebuilding could be grounds to fire Powell, Trump said: "I think it sort of is". "When you spend $US2.5 billion ($A3.8 billion) on, really, a renovation. I think it's really disgraceful," Trump said. President Donald Trump plans to step foot in the Federal Reserve as his allies scrutinise its expensive building renovations, a highly personal and confrontational escalation of his campaign to pressure the central bank to slash interest rates. Trump administration officials have used concerns about the building overhaul to cast doubt on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's decision-making. They were scheduled to inspect the site on Thursday, and the White House announced late Wednesday that the president would also be visiting. The visit reflects Trump's disregard for the traditional independence of the Fed, which plays a foundational role in the American economy by setting monetary policy that is supposed to be free of political influence. While previous presidents have criticised the Fed's decisions, Trump's sustained campaign is an unusual and, his critics say, dangerous departure from the norm. He has called on Powell to resign, insulted him repeatedly and suggested he could be fired. More recently, Trump has said he has no plans to oust Powell, which could be illegal. Pushing Powell out also would send shockwaves through global markets, potentially having the opposite effect that Trump wants as he pushes for lower borrowing costs. Trump, a Republican, appointed Powell during his first term, and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, extended his tenure. Powell's term doesn't end until next May, and he's previously insisted that he will serve until then. Not everyone in Trump's administration agrees with the president's contention that Powell needs to resign. "There's nothing that tells me that he should step down right now," said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whom Trump has floated as a potential replacement for Powell, in a recent interview with Fox Business. "He's been a good public servant." Trump has criticised Powell for months because the chair has kept the short-term interest rate the Fed controls at 4.3 per cent this year, after cutting it three times last year. Powell says the Fed wants to see how the economy responds to Trump's sweeping tariffs on imports, which Powell says could push up inflation. Powell's caution has infuriated Trump, who has demanded the Fed cut borrowing costs to spur the economy and reduce the interest rates the federal government pays on its debt. Trump will likely be disappointed again soon. A key Fed committee is expected to keep rates where they are when it meets next week. The Fed has been renovating its Washington headquarters and a neighbouring building. With some of the construction occurring underground and as building materials have soared in price after inflation spiked in 2021 and 2022, the estimated cost has ballooned from $US1.9 billion ($A2.9 billion) to about $US2.5 billion ($A3.8 billion). When asked last week if the costly rebuilding could be grounds to fire Powell, Trump said: "I think it sort of is". "When you spend $US2.5 billion ($A3.8 billion) on, really, a renovation. I think it's really disgraceful," Trump said. President Donald Trump plans to step foot in the Federal Reserve as his allies scrutinise its expensive building renovations, a highly personal and confrontational escalation of his campaign to pressure the central bank to slash interest rates. Trump administration officials have used concerns about the building overhaul to cast doubt on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's decision-making. They were scheduled to inspect the site on Thursday, and the White House announced late Wednesday that the president would also be visiting. The visit reflects Trump's disregard for the traditional independence of the Fed, which plays a foundational role in the American economy by setting monetary policy that is supposed to be free of political influence. While previous presidents have criticised the Fed's decisions, Trump's sustained campaign is an unusual and, his critics say, dangerous departure from the norm. He has called on Powell to resign, insulted him repeatedly and suggested he could be fired. More recently, Trump has said he has no plans to oust Powell, which could be illegal. Pushing Powell out also would send shockwaves through global markets, potentially having the opposite effect that Trump wants as he pushes for lower borrowing costs. Trump, a Republican, appointed Powell during his first term, and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, extended his tenure. Powell's term doesn't end until next May, and he's previously insisted that he will serve until then. Not everyone in Trump's administration agrees with the president's contention that Powell needs to resign. "There's nothing that tells me that he should step down right now," said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whom Trump has floated as a potential replacement for Powell, in a recent interview with Fox Business. "He's been a good public servant." Trump has criticised Powell for months because the chair has kept the short-term interest rate the Fed controls at 4.3 per cent this year, after cutting it three times last year. Powell says the Fed wants to see how the economy responds to Trump's sweeping tariffs on imports, which Powell says could push up inflation. Powell's caution has infuriated Trump, who has demanded the Fed cut borrowing costs to spur the economy and reduce the interest rates the federal government pays on its debt. Trump will likely be disappointed again soon. A key Fed committee is expected to keep rates where they are when it meets next week. The Fed has been renovating its Washington headquarters and a neighbouring building. With some of the construction occurring underground and as building materials have soared in price after inflation spiked in 2021 and 2022, the estimated cost has ballooned from $US1.9 billion ($A2.9 billion) to about $US2.5 billion ($A3.8 billion). When asked last week if the costly rebuilding could be grounds to fire Powell, Trump said: "I think it sort of is". "When you spend $US2.5 billion ($A3.8 billion) on, really, a renovation. I think it's really disgraceful," Trump said.