Fact File: No truth to online claims of dramatic drop in potato exports to U.S.

Winnipeg Free Press

4 hours ago

While Canadians wait for news of an improved trade situation with the United States, false reports about quiet deals with other countries have begun to fill the void. Recently, unfounded claims have spread online that Canada has slashed potato exports to the United States in response to tariffs, and struck a $1.6 billion trade deal with 'Asian markets.'
THE CLAIM
'Canada Cuts Potato Exports to U.S. – PM Carney signs $1.6B deal with Asia,' reads an Aug. 6 post on the X platform, formerly X platform, formerly known as Twitter. 'In just four months, over 140,000 tons of Canadian potatoes have disappeared from U.S. shelves.'
The claims were shared on Facebook, Threads and TikTok, the last of which tied a supposed 41 per cent drop in exports to the United States to 35 per cent tariffs placed on Canadian potatoes by Washington.
Multiple YouTube channels shared the claims in videos (archived video) stylized as news reports, racking up hundreds of thousands of views.
THE FACTS
There is no evidence of a recent $1.6 billion deal with any Asian country or of increased potato exports to markets in Asia.
'Canadian agri-food exporters base their decisions on market needs and dynamics, and available data for 2025 does not show an overall increase in shipments to Asian markets,' Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada spokeswoman Stéphanie Blais told The Canadian Press in a statement.
Canada has been in talks for a free trade deal with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), a 10-member bloc that includes Indonesia and the Philippines, since 2021, but negotiations are ongoing.
Several of the YouTube videos mention Indonesia and the Philippines as new destinations for Canadian potatoes. In December, a delegation of P.E.I. potato growers visited the countries in a bid to expand exports to the region, a report from P.E.I.-based agriculture publication Island Farmer says.
The trip came as Canada finished negotiations on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with Indonesia, with the pact set to be signed some time this year.
There is no dollar figure attached to the deal, but in its statement about the completed negotiations in November, the Prime Minister's Office noted merchandise trade between the two countries totalled $5.1 billion in 2023.
Indonesia's only imports of Canadian potatoes in 2025 came in April, with Statistics Canada data recording 980 tonnes of fresh or chilled spuds sent to the country.
NO BIG CUTS TO U.S. EXPORTS
The United States is the largest market for Canadian-grown potatoes, representing 96 per cent for seed, 93 per cent for fresh and 91 per cent for French fry exports in the 2023/2024 production year, which runs from Aug. 1 to July 31, according to a report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
Blais from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said that while exports to the United States decreased between the first and second quarters of 2025, that's happened in previous years when tariffs were not in place.
'Fluctuation in trade occurs for various reasons. More time is needed to understand the true impact of the U.S. administration's tariff policy,' Blais said.
This year, Canada exported 427,467 tonnes of potatoes, in all varieties, to the United States from April to June, according to a Canadian Press analysis of Statistics Canada data. That compares with 512,621 tonnes from January to March, a difference of 85,154 tonnes.
That represents a 17 per cent drop in exports, not the 41 per cent claimed in some social media posts.
Potato exports are covered by Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, or CUSMA, and so long as they meet the deal's rules of origin, do not face the 35 per cent tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on Aug. 1.
CLICKBAIT VIDEOS
A Google search for 'US tariffs on potatoes' brought up dozens of clickbait videos promoting the same story from channels ranging from the vaguely legitimate-sounding 'Economic info' to the dubious 'Bitcoin Timez.'
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What appears to be the oldest version comes from a channel called U.S. Retail Check, published July 27.
The video comes with a disclaimer that the makers 'do not guarantee complete accuracy, nor do we claim to provide official, exhaustive, or professional advice.'
It also features a warning that the video contains 'altered or synthetic content.'
The Canadian Press has previously debunked similar fake reports, generated with the help of artificial intelligence, of a trade deal being struck with Mexico.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 14, 2025.