Clean energy's political test looms now that Trump bill is law
Why it matters: Both chambers of Congress are narrowly divided and up for grabs next year.
The big picture: Democratic and green group campaigns will argue the GOP's "big beautiful bill" that President Trump signed Friday will raise costs and cut jobs.
It will be an effort to flip the script on the inflation emphasis and promises of lower costs that were a foundation of the GOP's 2024 message.
State of play: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's early list of targeted districts overlaps heavily with 13 House Republicans who voted for their chamber's plan but urged the Senate to soften it.
They include competitive seats held by Republicans like Jen Kiggans (Va.), Gabe Evans (Colo.) and Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.).
"Despite falsely proclaiming their concerns, House Republicans — including some of their most vulnerable members — knowingly voted to cut jobs, slash investments, and raise energy costs in their districts when they voted for the Big, Ugly Bill," DCCC spokeswoman Courtney Rice tells Axios.
The other side: While several polls show the bill is unpopular, Republicans will look to play political offense — especially emphasizing tax cuts and border security measures.
Republicans plan to message their legislative victory by branding Democrats' opposition as voting to raise taxes on small businesses and American families, according to an internal memo from the GOP's House campaign's arm shared with Axios' Kate Santaliz.
Friction point: Look for Dems and allied groups to cite recent analyses on two topics — IRA and infrastructure law investments and jobs flowing heavily to red states and districts, and potential for higher utility bills when incentives go away.
Reality check: The political relevance of low-carbon energy is unclear at best. Democrats lost the House in 2022, shortly after the IRA's passage.
Nor did emphasizing clean energy investments stop them from losing the Senate or White House last year, despite messaging on jobs and costs.
I'm not saying the IRA is why they lost, but there are plenty of reasons to question its political potency, and more broadly whether voters will prioritize clean tech.
As our colleague Hans Nichols notes, the election cycle is still early, and other potential events — such as war or recession — can always make the current issue set look small.
Yes, but: This time around, candidates can point more easily to the risk of investments in specific states and districts.
Some projects are already getting canceled as Trump officials pull back funding under the IRA and 2021 infrastructure law.
What's next: League of Conservation Voters President Pete Maysmith tells Axios that votes on the bill will play a "very significant role" in their midterm election work — and gave a taste of messages to come.
"The Republican Congress just broke their promise to the American people and to voters, and that was to cut costs, and instead, what they've done is jack up costs, starting with people's utility bills, but not stopping there, including health care, groceries and a myriad of other things," he said in an interview.
LCV is an important player — the group spent $44 million combined on House and Senate races in the 2024 cycle.
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Trump's tariff deadline is near. Here's a look at countries that have a deal — and those that don't
Come Friday, the world will have to contend with higher tariff rates from the Trump administration, raising the specter of even more economic uncertainty. For most countries, that can of worms has been kicked twice down the road, from 'Liberation Day' on April 2, to July 9, and now to Aug. 1. Back in April, President Donald Trump had claimed to have done 'over 200 deals' in an interview with Time Magazine, and trade adviser Peter Navarro had said that '90 deals in 90 days' was possible. The country has fallen far short of that, with only eight deals in 120 days, including one with the 27-member European Union. Here are where things stand in global trade. U.K. first to a deal The U.K. led the charge on trade agreements with the U.S., striking one as early as May. The framework includes a 10% baseline tariffs on U.K. goods, as well as various quotas and exemptions for products such as autos and aerospace goods. But even after Trump met with Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland recently, some points in their trade agreement remain uncertain. That includes tariffs on U.K. steel and aluminum, which the U.S. agreed to slash. Talks about the U.K.'s digital services tax, which Trump wants scrapped, also seem to be continuing. Vietnam: tariffs more than halved Vietnam was the second to cross the line with the Trump administration, with Trump announcing a trade agreement on July 2 that saw the tariff imposed on Vietnam slashed from 46% to 20%. One point with Vietnam was a 40% 'transshipping' tariff on goods originating in another country and transferred to Vietnam for final shipment to the U.S., although it is not clear how this will be applied. Trump also claimed that there would be full market access to the country for U.S. goods. Chinese manufacturers have used transshipping to sidestep the hefty tariffs on their direct shipments to the United States, using Vietnam as a major transshipment hub. However, it seems that Vietnam was blindsided by the 20% rate imposed, according to a report by Politico. Politico said negotiators had expected a 11% levy, but Trump unilaterally announced the 20% rate. Indonesia: bringing down barriers Indonesia's tariff rate was cut to 19% from 32% in its agreement with Trump, announced on July 15. The White House said Indonesia will eliminate tariff barriers on over 99% of U.S. products exported to Indonesia across all sectors, including agricultural products and energy. The framework says the countries will also address various 'non-tariff barriers' and other obstacles that the U.S. faces in Indonesian markets. Philippines: marginal decrease Unlike its ASEAN counterparts above, which had sizable reductions in their tariff duties, the Philippines saw a decrease of a single percentage point, to 19% from 20%, on July 22. Manila will not impose tariffs on U.S. goods as part of the agreement, according to Trump, who praised the country for what he described as 'going OPEN MARKET with the United States.' In addition, Trump also said that the Philippines will work together 'Militarily,' without specifying any details. The two countries are already treaty allies, with Manila hosting U.S. troops and having a mutual defense treaty going back to 1951. Japan: rice and autos Japan was the second major Asian economy to come to an agreement with the U.S. after China, seeing its tariff rate cut to 15% from 25% on July 23, and being the first economy to see a lower preferential tariff rate for its key automobile sector. 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French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou went as far as saying it was an act of 'submission' and a 'dark day.' E.U. Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, however, called it 'the best deal we could get under very difficult circumstances.' South Korea: also at 15% South Korea is the latest country to reach an agreement, on Thursday, with the terms being somewhat similar to the ones Japan received. The country will see a blanket 15% tariff on its exports, while duties on its auto sector are also lowered to 15%. South Korea 'will give to the United States $350 Billion Dollars for Investments owned and controlled by the United States, and selected by myself, as President,' Trump said. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said '90% of the profits' from that $350 billion investment will be 'going to the American people.' 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China currently faces a 30% combined tariff rate, while the U.S. is looking at 10% duties. The countries' most recent meeting in Stockholm ended without a truce extension, but U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that any truce extension will not be agreed to until Trump signs off on the plan. For countries without a deal, it appears that a higher global baseline tariff of about 15%-20% will be slapped on them, according to Trump, higher than the 10% baseline announced on 'Liberation Day.' Countries with a trade surplus with the U.S. will most likely see a higher 'reciprocal' tariff rate. Here are some key trading partners that have not agreed to a deal with the U.S. India: tariffs and a penalty On Wednesday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on India, with an additional unspecified 'penalty' for what he views as unfair trade policies and for India's purchase of military equipment and energy from Russia. 'While India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their Tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the World,' Trump said in a post on Truth Social. The 25% tariff rate is modestly lower than what Trump imposed on India on ' Liberation Day,' when he announced a 26% rate on the key trading partner, but at the high end of the 20%-25% range that the U.S. president said he was considering. Canada: an 'intense phase' There has been frequent back-and-forth between Canada and the U.S. over tariffs in recent months, with the country being hit by duties even before Trump announced his so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs. Canada is now facing 35% tariffs on various goods starting Aug. 1, with Trump threatening to increase that rate in case of retaliation. The rate is separate from any sectoral tariffs. Trump has repeatedly cited drugs flowing from Canada to the U.S. as a reason for his move to impose tariffs. 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