Tropical Storm Erin tracker: Forecast to strengthen into 1st Atlantic hurricane of 2025 on Friday, as latest projected path is updated
Tropical Storm Erin is expected to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season by Friday, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.
Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Monday and is strengthening as it moves westward. The NHC said there is still uncertainty about what impact it could have on states like Florida on the U.S. East Coast, as well as the Bahamas and Bermuda.
But forecasters remain confident that Erin "will be a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend."
Where is Tropical Storm Erin, and what is its path?
As of 11 a.m. ET Thursday:
Erin was located 890 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.
The storm has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.
It is moving west at 17 mph.
"A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with this motion expected to continue into the weekend," the NHC said. "On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend."
What are the chances it will intensify?
Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to strengthen in the next day or so and "is expected to become a hurricane on Friday," forecasters said.
A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when maximum sustained winds reach at least 74 mph. Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, according to the NHC.
Watches and warnings in place
As of 11 a.m. ET Thursday, there were no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
However, swells from Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.
"These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions," the hurricane center warned.
How is hurricane season shaping up?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal.
Last week, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13-18 (estimated at 13-19 in May), five of which could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph).
A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We're currently about halfway through this year's hurricane season, and there have been five so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter and Erin.
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Yahoo
24 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Category 4 Hurricane Erin buffets northern Caribbean islands but not forecast to hit land
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Hurricane Erin exploded in strength and became a major storm in Atlantic waters just north of the Caribbean on Saturday, rapidly powering up from a tropical storm in a single day and bringing heavy rains and high winds to islands in the region. The first Atlantic hurricane of 2025, Erin reached Category 5 status before weakening somewhat and becoming a Category 4 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (220 kph), according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Late Saturday night, the center reported that Erin was 'undergoing structural changes' but was still 'formidable' as its rain and winds buffeted Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm's center was about 145 miles (230 kilometers) north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and it was heading toward the west-northwest at 14 mph (22 kph). It was not forecast to make a direct hit on land. Hurricane center director Mike Brennen said Erin grew into a 'very powerful hurricane,' with its winds gaining 60 mph (96 kph) in about nine hours. Forecasters predicted it will remain a major hurricane into the coming week. Erin close enough to land to trigger flooding, landslides The storm's center was forecast pass north of Puerto Rico, according to the National Hurricane Center. Nevertheless, it said, heavy rain in some areas could trigger flash flooding, landslides and mudslides. Tropical storm watches were issued for St. Martin, St. Barts and the Turks and Caicos Islands. The National Weather Service in San Juan issued an alert for Saturday night for nearly two thirds of Puerto Rico, warning of 50 mph (80 kph) winds and urging people to shelter in safe structures. Power was knocked out to about 130,000 customers in the territory. Locals and tourists walked and shopped as usual earlier in the day in Puerto Rico's capital. Restaurants were busy, and despite warnings to avoid beaches, people could be seen in the water. Sarahí Torres and Joanna Cornejo, who were visiting from California for a Bad Bunny concert, said they decided to go to the beach and wade in because the skies were calm. 'The weather looked fine, so we came out,' Torres said. The U.S. government deployed more than 200 employees from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and other agencies as a precaution. Puerto Rico Housing Secretary Ciary Pérez Peña said 367 shelters were inspected and ready to open if needed. Officials in the Bahamas also prepared shelters and urged people to monitor the storm's progress. Powerful rip currents could affect the U.S. East Coast from Florida to the mid-Atlantic next week, despite the eye of the storm forecast to remain far offshore, Brennan said. An 'incredible' race from tropical storm to Category 5 Hurricane specialist and storm surge expert Michael Lowry said Erin gained strength at a pace that was 'incredible for any time of year, let alone Aug. 16.' Lowry said only four other Category 5 hurricanes have been recorded in the Atlantic on or before Aug. 16. The most powerful storms tend to form later in the year, with the hurricane season typically peaking in mid-September. In October 2005, Hurricane Wilma rocketed from a tropical storm to a Category 5 in less than 24 hours, according to National Hurricane Center advisories from that time. Wilma weakened to a Category 3 hurricane before striking Florida. And in October 2007, Hurricane Felix took just over a day to go from a tropical storm to Category 5. Including Erin, there have been 43 hurricanes that have reached Category 5 status on record in the Atlantic, said Dan Pydynowski, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, a private forecasting company. 'They're certainly rare, although this would mark the fourth year in a row that we've had one in the Atlantic basin,' Pydynowski said. Warming climate linked to storms strengthening faster Scientists have linked rapid intensification of hurricanes in the Atlantic to climate change. Global warming is causing the atmosphere to hold more water vapor and is spiking ocean temperatures, and warmer waters give hurricanes fuel to unleash more rain and strengthen more quickly. Storms that ramp up so quickly complicate forecasting and make it harder for government agencies to plan for emergencies. Hurricane Erick, a Pacific storm that made landfall June 19 in Oaxaca, Mexico, also strengthened rapidly, doubling in intensity in less than a day. Erin is the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and is expected to be unusually busy. Six to 10 hurricanes are predicted for the season, including three to five reaching major status with winds of more than 110 mph (177 kph). ___ Bynum reported from Savannah. Georgia. Associated Press writers Isabella O'Malley in Philadelphia and Ivelisse Rivera in San Juan contributed. ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at Dánica Coto And Russ Bynum, The Associated Press
CNN
26 minutes ago
- CNN
Hurricane Erin is one of the fastest rapidly intensifying storms in Atlantic history
Powerful Hurricane Erin has undergone a period of astonishingly rapid intensification — a phenomenon that has become far more common in recent years as the planet warms. It was a rare Category 5 for a time Saturday before becoming a Category 4, churning through the Atlantic Ocean north of the Caribbean. Erin went from a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at 11 a.m. Friday to a Category 5 with near 160 mph winds just over 24 hours later. It put Erin in the history books as one of the fastest-strengthening Atlantic hurricanes on record, and potentially the fastest intensification rate for any storm earlier than September 1. Erin is still 'a formidable Category 4 hurricane', the National Hurricane Center said before Saturday midnight, and is forecast to return to Category 5 strength as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle, a process that will cause the storm's windfield to grow in size. Rapid intensification is when a hurricane gains at least 35 mph of wind speed in at least 24 hours. Extreme rapid intensification historically tends to happen in September and October. Even more hurricanes are rapidly intensifying in the Atlantic as the oceans and atmosphere warm in response to fossil fuel pollution and the global warming it causes. This likely makes Erin another example of the increasing extremes of a warming world. Furthermore, Hurricane Erin is now one of only 43 Category 5 hurricanes on record in the Atlantic – which makes it rare, though not as rare in the context of recent hurricane seasons – as peak strength is becoming easier for storms to achieve. It is the 11th Category 5 hurricane recorded in the Atlantic since 2016, an unusually high number. It's also unusual to see a Category 5 storm form so early in the season, particularly outside of the Gulf of Mexico. Mid-August is around the time of peak hurricane activity, but the strongest storms tend to occur later in the season. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is now the fourth straight season to feature a Category 5 storm, with two occurring last year, hurricanes Beryl and Milton. Hurricane Erin is still expected to avoid a direct hit on any land mass, passing north of Puerto Rico, then curving north-northeast into the open Atlantic between the East Coast and Bermuda next week. As it does so, it is expected to double or even triple in size. Erin is about 150 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico and about 160 miles northwest of Anguilla as of Saturday evening. A flash flood warning has been issued for northern Puerto Rico until midnight Saturday and tropical storm watches remain in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands and parts of the Leeward Islands. The outer bands of the storm will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, the Hurricane Center said. Considerable flash flooding, landslides and mudslides, are possible, it added. The storm is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the US East Coast, and Atlantic Canada next week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Erin sustained winds near 150 mph as of Saturday night, according to the National Hurricane Center. Fluctuations in intensity are expected for the rest of the weekend, as Erin brings rain and strong wind gusts to the Caribbean islands south of it. Erin is expected to persist until Monday, when it will start to slowly weaken. Erin's powerful wind field is forecast to at least double or triple in size next week, resulting in rough beach conditions on the East Coast. The storm is passing just north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend while making a gradual turn toward the north. It's unlikely it will make a direct landfall on any of the northeastern Caribbean islands, though tropical alerts are in place for some of these areas cautioning potential threats. Erin is forecast to track north over the western Atlantic next week, away from the United States and Bermuda, but that could change if the storm turns more or less sharply than currently forecast. Even if the forecast remains consistent, Erin could cause issues for both places in the form of rough surf and dangerous rip currents. n anticipation of the hurricane, the US Coast Guard captain for the port of San Juan has directed that the ports of St. Thomas and St. John in the US Virgin Islands, and six seaports in Puerto Rico be closed to all inbound vessel traffic unless specifically authorized. Rough seas and rip currents around the islands will continue into early next week. Gusty wind and rain – which could be heavy at times – are also impacting the islands as Erin slides by. Some spots could record 2 to 4 inches of rain this weekend with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible in the heaviest downpours. Intense rain could also cause flash flooding or mudslides. There's plenty of fuel in the region for Erin to tap into as sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal. They aren't quite as warm as the record levels reached in 2023 and 2024, but are still far warmer than they'd be in a world that wasn't heating up. Erin is the Atlantic's first major hurricane of the season. Four other systems roamed the Atlantic basin before Erin – Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter – but none were stronger than a tropical storm. The first hurricane of the season typically forms around August 11, so Erin was slightly behind schedule, particularly compared to early arrivals in recent seasons. There had already been three hurricanes – Beryl, Debby and Ernesto – by August 15 last year. There will be more chances for tropical systems to develop this month. Longer term forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center highlight the same part of the Atlantic Erin developed in as a place to watch for new storms into at least early September. August is when the tropics usually come alive: The busiest stretch of the season typically spans from mid-August to mid-October. Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year. This story has been updated with additional information.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Hurricane Hunters Fly Into Hurricane Erin
Hurricane Hunters fly into the eyewall of Hurricane Erin. Look at the stadium effect from the clouds in the center of the hurricane.
