Tel Aviv Thumps Tehran
Iran is weak. Even then, oil price, trade routes are at risk
Israel's stunning strikes on Iran put West Asia back on the edge. These strikes were deep into Iran, hitting nuclear facilities and ballistic missile sites, and heads of its armed forces and IRGC were taken out. Tehran has vowed harsh response, but its options may be constrained today. Israel already battered its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah last year and brought on the downfall of the pro-Tehran Assad regime in Syria. Plus, Israel claims that the latest strikes involved a covert Mossad cell that operated from within Iran to take out Iranian air defence and ballistic missile launchers. This would mean Tehran's counter-intelligence network has failed on multiple fronts.
Meanwhile, Trump appears to be threatening more Israeli military action against Iran if Tehran doesn't do a fresh deal with Washington on its nuclear programme. US and Iran have been engaging in talks over the matter. But Washington's position that Tehran abandon its nuclear programme hasn't cut ice with the Iranian regime. But if the strikes were meant to be a harsh message to the Ayatollahs, they may end up having the opposite effect – Tehran could accelerate a nuclear weapons programme and quit NPT. That in turn would increase tensions with the Gulf Arab states, and the Saudis may push their case for a nuclear programme.
The impact of all this on energy prices could be acute. Price of crude has already leapt by 9% and could head further north. Supply chains may again take a hit given important sea lanes in the region. Not to forget undersea cables that could be targeted or weaponised. For India too things get complicated. Iran provides our potential alternative trade route to Afghanistan via Chabahar port. The same route links up to International North-South Transport Corridor for Central Asia. But prolonged chaos in the region puts all of this under a cloud. An escalatory military conflict between Tel Aviv and Tehran is not in the world's interest. But Netanyahu, the Ayatollahs and Trump may have other ideas.
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This piece appeared as an editorial opinion in the print edition of The Times of India.
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