Most people in France, Germany, Italy and Spain would be in favour of UK rejoining EU on new terms, poll finds
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Most people in the four largest countries in the European Union would welcome the UK back into the bloc, a new poll has found – but not on the same terms it had before.
At the same time, most Britons are in favour of rejoining the EU, the YouGov survey of six western European nations found, but only if they could keep the opt-outs the UK previously had, such as remaining outside the Schengen zone and keeping its own currency.
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Irish Times
38 minutes ago
- Irish Times
Economist calls for budget ‘prudence', as Central Bank governor suggests rethink is needed
'A lot of prudence' is needed in Budget 2026 , while there is a case for postponing recurrent spending and tax cuts until there is 'greater clarity' on the negative implications of the EU-US trade deal , a prominent economist has said. Dan O'Brien, the chief economist of the Institute of International and European Affairs , made the remarks while responding to comments from the Central Bank governor Gabriel Makhlouf suggesting the Government should rethink its approach to the October budget. In its summer economic statement last month the Government said a €9.4 billion tax and spending package will form the foundation of the upcoming budget. However, the Coalition warned at the time it may have to 'recalibrate' its strategy and reduce the size of the overall package if there is a 'deterioration in the tariff landscape' over the coming months. READ MORE The European Union has since struck a trade deal with the United States which sees EU goods, including those from Ireland, hit with 15 per cent tariffs by the US. The Business Post reported on Sunday that Mr Makhlouf said Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe now has 'more certainly' for planning the budget with the level of tariffs on EU goods known. 'Hopefully the summer economic statement is not the budget, and hopefully, by the time he (Mr Donohoe) gets there, he will have reflected again on what the trade situation is telling us,' Mr Makhlouf said. He added: 'For an economy operating at full employment, we're adding more stimulus to the economy than it needs – and I would look again at what we're planning to do.' Mr Makhlouf also told the paper: 'I think at the moment there's a risk that we're in the wrong place.' [ What did the summer economic statement really tell us about Budget 2026? Opens in new window ] A spokeswoman for Mr Donohoe declined to comment on Mr Makhlouf's remarks. During an interview on Newstalk radio on Sunday, Mr O'Brien was asked if he agrees Mr Donohoe needs to rethink the budget. He said this suggestion is 'largely' correct, as 'we're facing a lot of uncertainty'. Mr O'Brien added: 'I think the Government needs to manage expectations around this. There's been a lot of giveaways [in recent budgets]. Clearly we had a general election last year.' He said there has been a 'big uptick in inflation' but this has 'come right back down again' and 'there isn't the justification for Government to be intervening to deal with every problem'. Mr O'Brien said the implications of the trade situation for the pharmaceutical sector are uncertain, relying on the 'whims of the US president who may just decide he doesn't like the pharmaceutical sector in Europe selling stuff to the US and he may do something more radical'. He added: 'So there's a lot of uncertainty here, and I think we need a lot of prudence in this budget.' Asked about potential tax choices in the budget, Mr O'Brien argued there is 'no economic justification' for the Government's intention to reduce the VAT rate for the hospitality sector. 'One might strongly make the case that both recurrent spending and tax cuts maybe need to be postponed until we get greater clarity as to the negative implications of the trade deal and the extent to which it effects particularly the pharmaceutical sector and how that feeds into corporation tax revenues,' Mr O'Brien added. 'We just don't know how big a hit that could impose on the public finances if we get a change in pharmaceuticals sales to the US and that results in a reduction in corporation tax profits.' Did the EU have its hands tied before striking a trade deal with the US? Listen | 23:32
Irish Independent
2 hours ago
- Irish Independent
Wicklow dairy and beef farmer to host Teagasc farmyard design event
Teagasc is holding a series of farm building events in response to an increased interest in improving farm infrastructure due to the recent improved income potential from dairy farming, the new 60pc grant on slurry storage and the changing requirements for storage under the nitrates directive. Among the farmers hosting an event, Paul Grace's family has been farming in Dunlavin for eight generations. His farm (W91NX40) runs on a grass-based system, and he takes pride in producing low-mileage, high-quality food. Paul milks Fleckvieh cows, a traditional European breed prized for its dual-purpose qualities, which produce rich, wholesome milk and offer excellent beef characteristics. The former publican also keeps a herd of Aubrac cattle, a hardy French breed known for producing beautifully marbled beef that's widely celebrated in France for its outstanding flavour, tenderness, and heritage. 'Alongside our three children, we're building a healthy, grounded life rooted in the land, animals, and shared knowledge that shape who we are,' Paul commented. Topics that will be covered at the event include milking parlour, holding yard, and drafting, with a focus on cow flow, drafting efficiency, and management of dairy washings. There will be insights on cubicle shed design, scraper options, slurry storage requirements, and details on the new grant, along with information on calving and calf sheds, space allocation and ways to improve labour efficiency.
RTÉ News
7 hours ago
- RTÉ News
Can Trump's threatened tariffs make Russia end its war?
First it was 50 days. But that deadline hardly made the Kremlin blink. Then, earlier this week, US President Donald Trump gave Russia a new 10-day deadline to end its three-and-half-year war in Ukraine. It was a simple ultimatum from the US: sign up to a ceasefire agreement by next Friday or face 100% tariffs. A couple of weeks ago, the White House indicated that tariffs on Russia and its trading partners could be as high as 100%. Russian exports of oil and gas account for about 60% of the country's overall exports, according to various estimates. Given that the profits of Russian oil companies are taxed heavily by the Russian state, implementing such high tariffs would deny Russia much-needed revenue for its war in Ukraine. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Helsinki-based thinktank, Russia has made more than €920bn on exports of fossil fuels since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Oil exports accounted for more than €630bn during that time. The Kremlin ignored Mr Trump's first 50-day ultimatum and has done the same with the new one, simply saying that the US president's comments were "noted". True to form, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not responded directly to Mr Trump's latest ultimatum to end the war. Russia's missile strikes on Ukrainian cities during this week have also indicated that Mr Trump's new deadline has not influenced Russia's war tactics. On Thursday, Russian strikes killed 31 people in Kyiv, including five children, and on Tuesday, Russian airstrikes on a prison and hospital in the Zaporizhzhia region killed 19 people. Russian forces are continuing their slow advance along the front, claiming to have captured Chasiv Yar on Thursday. Chasiv Yar is a strategically important but destroyed town in eastern Ukraine that has been fought over for 16 months. Ukraine denied that the town had been lost. If there are any moves inside the Kremlin towards agreeing a ceasefire deal by next Friday, then its leadership is hiding it very well indeed. During the week, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia had "developed an immunity" to Western sanctions after years of being sanctioned, while other senior officials aired similar views. Many analysts agree that Russia's economy has largely weathered more than three years of Western penalties - actions that included sanctions on Russian banks, freezing their assets and excluding them from using the global system for international payments. The West also set a price cap in late 2022 of $60 per barrel on Russian maritime exports of oil. However, Russia has continued to export its oil to buyers from non-sanctioning countries through its so-called 'shadow fleet'. These are mostly aging tankers with opaque maritime histories, registered in third-party countries to circumvent sanctions. The EU's latest batch of sanctions last month - the 18th so far - aims to make it harder for Russia to transport its oil around the world by lowering the price cap to $47 per barrel and blacklisting more than 100 of the shadow fleet's vessels from docking at ports across the EU. So Mr Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on Russia and its trading partners is a novel move to reduce the Kremlin's ability to collect oil revenues and thereby dent its war chest. "If the US comes with secondary sanctions on Russian oil, I can't see a bolder play," Ben McWilliams, an energy expert at the Bruegel thinktank in Brussels, told RTÉ News. "It's playing all their cards and that's trying to exert maximum pressure on Russia through energy," Mr McWilliams added. China buys almost half of all Russian crude oil exports, followed closely by India. Turkey and the EU both account for about 6% each of total Russian oil exports - most Russian crude oil flowing into the EU is bought by Hungary and Slovakia via pipeline. Russia also sells smaller volumes of oil to other markets including Myanmar, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Pakistan and Venezuela. The loss of revenue from those smaller markets is surmountable for Russia. However, a reduction in Chinese or Indian imports of the commodity would deny the Kremlin vital revenue for its war. Last year, China's level of Russian crude oil imports reached a record high of 108 million tonnes, according to data from China's national customs authority. Those imports account for about 20% of all Chinese oil consumption and are estimated to be worth about $62bn in 2024, based on analysis by the Centre of Eastern Studies in Warsaw and MERICS, a Berlin-based thinktank that focuses on China. In April, after the Trump administration imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, Beijing hit back with high 110% tariffs of its own on US goods. A truce has been in place between Washington and Beijing since May, with the US reducing its tariffs to 30% and China to 10%. Statements from senior Chinese officials earlier this week suggest Beijing is unlikely to yield to pressure from Washington to stop buying Russian oil. "China will take energy supply measures that are right for China based on our national interests," Guo Jiakun, spokesperson for China's foreign affairs ministry, told reporters. Tariff wars have no winners. Coercion and pressuring cannot solve problems," he added. India might be more likely to reconsider reducing the amount of Russian oil it buys, if faced with 100% tariffs. On Friday, the US hit India with 25% tariffs on its imported goods - just one of many countries whose goods are to be levied by the US as part of Mr Trump's plan to, as he sees it, address US trade imbalances with other countries. The $60 price cap in late 2022 drove down the price of Russian oil exports, leading India to buy up much larger quantities of the stuff than it did before the war - it now buys more than two million barrels of oil a day from Russia, equivalent to about 2% of the world's total supply. Russian crude oil now accounts for about 35% of India's oil imports. Those purchases were valued at an estimated $50bn last year, according to India's government data, sourced by Reuters. New Delhi's reaction to the 25% levies has been to engage in trade talks. Mr Trump has also threatened to impose additional economic penalties on India for trading with Russia. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that India's purchase of Russian oil was "a point of irritation" so it looks like the US sees India's heavy reliance on Russian oil as a deal breaker in their overall trade talks. A number of Indian state oil refineries stopped buying Russian oil in the past week, buying more oil from Gulf States instead, an indication that American pressure is working. Reduced oil exports to India would force Russia to find substitute markets to make up for the shortfall. "Russia could still manage to get many barrels to market. You could still imagine small markets, each taking 50,000 barrels or something," Mr McWilliams said. "The question would be, at what price," he added, pointing to the cheaper price that buyers from India and China paid for Russian oil after European demand all but disappeared in 2022. If India and another big economy such as Turkey stop buying Russian oil, then buyers in other markets might have more leverage to offer lower prices for Russian crude, he argued. Turkey is the world's largest importer of Russian oil products such as diesel, heating oil and jet fuel. However, Turkey has also played a key role recently in US efforts to broker a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. Turkish diplomats have mediated three brief face-to-face meetings between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in Istanbul since May. Unleashing 100% tariffs on Turkey for buying Russian oil would jeopardise Turkey's eagerness to work alongside the US as a mediator. Turkey, a NATO member, is also one of the few countries that Russia views as an acceptable mediator. Mr Trump's threat of 100% tariffs is unlikely to sway Russia to stop its war immediately, nor in the weeks ahead. The Kremlin has been quite clear that it plans to weather new sanctions. Imposing high tariffs on China for trading with Russia could also set off a new, all-out trade war between Beijing and Washington. But tariffs could force India and a number of other smaller economies that buy Russian oil imports to buy elsewhere and that lost revenue would dent the Russian state's war economy in the months ahead. The big unknown factors are whether Mr Trump will follow through on his tariff threats and whether Mr Putin might yet come up with a diplomatic ploy to delay them.
