NC Senate Race: Cooper leads Whatley with young, independent voters: Poll
His opponent—Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley—announced his entry into the race Thursday. That came a week after sources close to Whatley confirmed his plans to run on July 24, the same day Laura Trump announced on X that she would not be running.
With more than a year to go before ballots are cast, this initial poll offers an early snapshot of where Cooper and Whatley stand with voters. Emerson College Polling surveyed 1,000 North Carolinians from July 28–30. Of those respondents, 359 identified as Republicans, 311 as Democrats, and 329 as independents or other.
Candidate Favorability
Cooper holds a six-point favorability edge over Whatley among all 1,000 participants in the poll.
One factor likely contributing to Cooper's edge is name recognition — a point highlighted by a poll question that asked voters how they view each candidate. The percentage breakdown is below.
Kimball explained how Whatley's low name recognition presents 'both a challenge and an opportunity.' While only 17% view him favorably, nearly two-thirds of voters either don't know him or are unsure, polling showed. 'That leaves room for his campaign to define him before his opponent does,' Kimball added.
GOP Chair Michael Whatley officially announces run for US Senate in North Carolina
In contrast, Cooper enters the race with significantly higher name recognition and a more favorable public image.
The gap is much wider among independent voters, who favor Cooper 47% to 28%.Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, also noted a sharp age divide:'Cooper has a 25-point edge on Whatley among voters under 50, 54% to 29%, whereas Whatley leads voters over 50 by 11 points, 52% to 41%,' he said.
'Cooper has a 25-point edge on Whatley among voters under 50, 54% to 29%, whereas Whatley leads voters over 50 by 11 points, 52% to 41%,' Kimball added.
'I love North Carolina': Former Governor Roy Cooper announces run for US Senate seat in 2026
As for retiring Senator Thom Tillis, he currently holds a 30% favorable rating and a 43% unfavorable rating. His retirement appears aligned with weak favorability: just 41% of Republican voters view him favorably, while 35% view him unfavorably.
'He's also underwater with independents, with 43% unfavorable and only 27% favorable,' Kimball noted.
More on the Candidates
Michael Whatley
Whatley led the North Carolina Republican Party for nearly five years before being elected Republican National Committee chairman 17 months ago with Trump's backing. He's hoping to succeed GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, who announced just a month ago that he would not seek a third term after clashing with Trump and voting against the 'Big Beautiful Bill.'
In a post on Truth Social last week, President Trump voiced his support for Whatley, giving him his 'complete and total endorsement' and referring to him as 'one of the most capable executives in our country.' The president also wrote, 'I have a mission for my friends in North Carolina, and that is to get Michael Whatley to run for the U.S. Senate.'
On Thursday, Whatley used much of his launch speech to target Cooper, accusing him of 'offering North Carolina voters an extreme radical-left ideology — open borders, inflationary spending, and a weak America.'
Roy Cooper
Cooper brings a powerful record to the race: he has never lost a statewide election. His winning streak began in 1986 when he was elected to represent the 72nd district in the North Carolina House of Representatives. In 1991, he was appointed to the North Carolina Senate, a position he held for 10 years before winning six more statewide elections.
Those victories earned him four terms as attorney general, from 2000 to 2016, and two terms as governor, elected in 2016 and re-elected in 2020.
The day after Cooper announced his candidacy, former U.S. Rep. Wiley Nickel ended his campaign and threw his full support behind Cooper. The former governor's entry brings optimism to a party aiming to take back the Senate in 2026 with a net gain of four seats — a tall order in a year when many Senate races are in states Trump won easily in 2024.
National Republican campaign strategists say Cooper's entry makes North Carolina a more difficult seat for the GOP to hold, though a Democrat hasn't won a Senate race in the traditionally competitive state since 2008, making it one that will be closely watched by the nation.
For full results of the Emerson College poll, click here.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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