Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures waver as investors await retail data after rate-cut bets cool
Futures attached to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) rose around 0.3%. Futures attached to the benchmark S&P 500 (ES=F) flatlined. Futures attached to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) fell about 0.2%.
Stocks wobbled on Thursday, ending a two-day rally sparked by investor confidence that an interest rate cut in September was nearly certain. Doubts about a significant cut at the Fed's next policy meeting crept in after July's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected.
After the bell, Intel (INTC) shares jumped on news that the US government is considering taking a stake in the company. Trump met with Intel's CEO on Monday after calling on him to resign the previous week.
UnitedHealth (UNH) stock also soared after a regulatory filing showed Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought 5 million shares in the company.
Finally, Applied Materials (AMAT) dove after its earnings report included a downbeat forecast that spooked investors.
On Friday, Wall Street will be watching the release of retail sales data. The results will offer clues as to whether Trump's tariffs are impacting consumer spending habits.
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For example, high double-digit tariffs are in place for steel and aluminum, foreign cars and Chinese imports. And the White House has reached deals with trading partners such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the UK that set tariffs at 10% to 20%. Trump's deportations and constraints on Southern border crossings are well under way. And his huge budget bill, which he signed into law on July 4, expanded his 2017 tax cuts, beefed up military and border security outlays, and slashed some entitlement spending. All told, Moody's projects Trump's policies will reduce economic growth by an average 0.4 percentage points annually – nearly half a point – during his term. That would leave the economy expanding an average 1.7% annually over the four years, with growth bottoming at 1.4% next year and peaking at 2.2% in 2028. The economy grew at an annual rate of 1.2% the first half of 2025. It's projected to grow at slightly less than a 1% pace in the second half, according to economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators. By contrast, the economy averaged 2.3% growth the decade after the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and 3.5% during former president Joe Biden's term. The latter, however, included unusually strong gains as the nation emerged from the pandemic recession. In 2024, Biden's last year in office, the economy grew a healthy 2.8%. Growth had been expected to downshift no matter who won the 2024 election as a post-COVID-19 surge in consumer demand petered out, Americans depleted government pandemic aid and other government stimulus measures faded. But by the end of Trump's term in 2028, the economy will be 1.3% smaller than if his policies had not been enacted, Begley wrote in a report. Also, the unemployment rate is expected to peak at 4.7% in 2027 before falling to 4.4% by the time Trump leaves office. Without his policies, unemployment would broadly hold steady at about 4% and there would be about 885,000 additional jobs, Moody's said. Trump's policies similarly are poised to push up inflation by an average of nearly half a percentage point a year. That would leave annual inflation averaging 2.6% during Trump's term and peaking at 3.1% in 2026, based on the Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price index. Inflation then would decline and nearly reach the Fed's 2% goal in 2028, the last year of his term. Absent the president's policies, inflation would achieve the Fed's target next year, Begley's analysis shows. Tariffs, by far, represent both the biggest drag on growth and the largest contributor to inflation, Begley said. Companies are expected to pass most of the costs of the duties to consumers, driving up prices. And that's expected to sap their buying power and reduce consumption, which makes up 70% of economic activity. 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