World oil market may be tighter than it looks, IEA says
The IEA, which advises industrialised countries, expects global supply to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day this year, up 300,000 bpd from the previous forecast. World demand will rise by just 700,000 bpd, it said, implying a sizeable surplus.
Despite making those changes, the IEA said rising refinery processing rates to meet summer travel and power-generation demand were tightening the market and the latest, accelerated supply hike from OPEC+ on Saturday had not had much effect.
"The decision by OPEC+ to further accelerate the unwinding of production cuts failed to move markets in a meaningful way given tighter fundamentals," the agency said in a monthly report.
"Price indicators also point to a tighter physical oil market than suggested by the hefty surplus in our balances."
The comments strike a similar tone to the message earlier this week from ministers and executives of OPEC nations and bosses of Western oil majors. The output increases are not leading to higher inventories, which shows markets are thirsty for more oil, they said.
On Monday, when traders reacted to OPEC+'s decision, oil rose nearly 2% towards $70 a barrel, despite the larger than expected output hike and concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs. It was trading near $69 on Friday.
As examples of price indicators suggesting a tighter market, the IEA cited strong refining margins and the premium at which oil for immediate delivery is trading to later supply, a structure known as backwardation.
"Prompt time spreads are in steep backwardation and refinery margins remain healthy despite implied stock builds," it said.
SUMMER DEMAND BOOST
Oil demand typically rises in the Northern Hemisphere summer as people fly and drive more on holidays.
Given rising seasonal demand, refinery crude processing rates will increase by 3.7 million bpd from May to August to meet Northern Hemisphere travel demand, the IEA said.
At the same time, a doubling in crude burning in refineries for power generation, typically to meet air conditioning needs, to around 900,000 bpd will further tighten the market, it said.
Nonetheless, the agency said this year's forecast for global demand growth of 700,000 bpd is the slowest since 2009, excluding 2020 when demand contracted due to the COVID pandemic.
The IEA said that, while it may be too early to say U.S. tariffs are slowing demand, the largest declines in recent data were in countries in the "crosshairs of the tariff turmoil," citing China, Japan, South Korea, the United States and Mexico.
IEA demand forecasts are at the lower end of the industry range, as the agency expects a faster energy transition than some other forecasters. According to OPEC, demand will rise by 1.3 million bpd this year - almost double the IEA figure.
Next year, the IEA sees demand growth averaging 720,000 bpd, 20,000 bpd lower than previously thought, with supply growth rising by 1.3 million bpd, also implying a surplus.
(Reporting by Alex Lawler. Editing by Joe Bavier and Mark Potter)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Tahawul Tech
34 minutes ago
- Tahawul Tech
Companies must protect themselves against bots bypassing defenses
David Warburton, Director, F5 Labs, outlines the growing sophistication of bot adversaries and the steps companies can take to combat them in this exclusive op-ed. In today's digital landscape, where applications and APIs are the lifeblood of businesses, a silent threat lurks: sophisticated bot adversaries. While traditional security measures focus on preventing malicious attacks, automated threats are slipping through undetected by mimicking human behaviour and exploiting gaps in application logic in unexpected ways. F5 Labs' recently released 2025 Advanced Persistent Bots Report sheds light on the evolving tactics of advanced persistent bots and the challenges they pose. Here are three trends that stood out for me from this year's research, and what companies can do to protect themselves. 1. Credential stuffing: When stolen passwords expose valuable data Imagine a scenario where cybercriminals use readily available stolen credentials to access sensitive user accounts. This is the reality of credential stuffing, a prevalent bot-driven attack that exploits the widespread practice of password reuse. According to F5 Labs, some organisations experience upwards of 80% of login traffic coming from credential stuffing attacks launched by bots. The report highlights that, even with a low success rate of 1% to 3% per attack campaign, the sheer volume of automated logins translates into a substantial number of compromised accounts. Incidents such as the PayPal breach in 2022, where almost 35,000 user accounts were accessed to expose highly monetisable personal information, provide massive databases of usernames and passwords for malicious use across other online services. Even a small success rate can yield significant results, because many people reuse passwords. These details can then be used for fraudulent transactions or data theft, or sold on the dark web for targeted attacks. In recent years, several well-known brands have reported credential stuffing attacks. The decline of genetic testing firm 23andMe was, in part, attributed to a credential stuffing campaign that exposed customer health and ancestry information. Data was found for sale on the dark web at a price of $1,000 for 100 profiles, up to $100,000 for 100,000 profiles. The company cited customers' lack of adoption of the site's multi-factor authentication (MFA) option as the primary failure but, in fact, the insidious nature of credential stuffing lies in its ability to bypass traditional security measures. Since the bots are using legitimate credentials and are not trying to exploit any vulnerabilities, they don't trigger typical alarms. MFA can help but, due to the rise in real-time phishing proxies (RTPP), it's not foolproof. Organisations must implement smart bot detection solutions that analyse login patterns, device fingerprints, and behavioural anomalies to see what's really going on. 2. Hospitality under siege: Gift card bots and the rise of 'carding' While finance and retail sectors are often considered prime targets for cyberattacks, F5 Labs research showed that hospitality is heavily targeted by malicious bot activity. In particular, 'carding' and gift card bots are found to target hospitality websites and APIs, with some organisations experiencing a 300% surge in malicious bot activity compared to last year. The report also notes that the average value of gift cards targeted by bots is increasing. Carding uses bots to validate stolen credit card numbers by rapidly testing them on checkout pages and APIs. Gift card bots exploit loyalty programs and gift card systems. Attackers use them to check balances, transfer points, or redeem rewards illegally. These bots often target vulnerabilities like simple patterns and sequential gift card IDs. The hospitality industry's vulnerability stems from the fact that loyalty points and gift cards are essentially digital currency. Cybercriminals can easily convert these assets into cash or use them to purchase goods and services. To protect themselves, hospitality businesses must implement robust bot detection and mitigation strategies specifically tailored to address these kinds of threats. This includes monitoring gift card activity, analysing transaction patterns and implementing solutions that can differentiate between humans and bots. CATPCHAs, once the go-to solution for blocking bots, have been easily bypassed by bot operators for years. 3. Bypassing the gatekeepers: Residential proxies and the futility of CAPTCHAs Traditional bot defences like CAPTCHAs and IP blocking are failing against increasingly sophisticated evasion tactics. Bot operators can easily outsource CAPTCHA solving to human click farms, where individuals are paid small amounts to solve challenges on demand. Furthermore, the rise of residential proxy networks is a significant factor. These networks route bot traffic through residential IPs via compromised devices, masking the true IP addresses of the bots. The F5 Labs report suggests that residential proxies are now widely used by bot operators, and the majority of bot traffic now appears to originate from these networks. Identity management vendor, Okta, flagged the role of broad availability of residential proxy services in a surge of credential stuffing attacks on its users last year. The company said that millions of fake requests had routed through residential proxies to make them appear to originate from mobile devices and browsers of everyday users, rather than from the IP space of virtual private server (VPS) providers. To effectively combat these advanced evasion techniques, organisations need to move beyond traditional defences and embrace smart bot solutions. These solutions leverage machine learning and behavioural analysis to identify bots based on their unique characteristics. By focusing on human-like behaviour, rather than relying on IP addresses or CAPTCHAs, organisations can more accurately detect and block sophisticated bot attacks. Navigating the risk landscape: Finding your bot defence sweet spot Ultimately, the level of bot defence an organisation implements depends on its risk appetite. Every business must weigh the potential costs and benefits of different mitigation strategies and determine the level of risk it is willing to accept. Completely eliminating all bot traffic may not be feasible—or even desirable, as some automated activity is legitimate and beneficial. However, failing to address malicious bot activity can lead to significant financial losses, reputational damage, and customer frustration. The key is to find the right balance. By understanding the different types of bots targeting your organisation, assessing the potential impact of their activities, and implementing appropriate detection and mitigation measures, you can effectively manage your bot risk and protect your business—and your customers—from advanced persistent bot threats. Image Credit: F5
Zawya
35 minutes ago
- Zawya
BlackRock's assets hit record $12.53trln on second-quarter market rally
BlackRock's assets under management hit a new high in the second quarter as global markets rallied on the prospect of trade deals and interest-rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve, brushing aside earlier tariff-related jitters. Shares of the company rose 1.1% in premarket trading. A robust labor market, a healthy consumer and hopes that President Donald Trump would ease some of his harsher trade measures pushed major U.S. indices to all-time highs through the end of June. That marked a sharp reversal from early April, when tumult in U.S. trade and geopolitical policy battered confidence and fueled recession fears, concerns that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink echoed at the time. The benchmark S&P 500 index rose 10.57% in the second quarter of 2025 after escaping bear market territory. BlackRock's assets under management rose to $12.53 trillion in the quarter ended June 30, from $10.65 trillion last year. However, long-term net inflows fell to $46 billion in the quarter, down 9.8%. As equities rallied, fixed-income products saw outflows of $4.66 billion, BlackRock said. Trends for the business are being closely scrutinized, given the turbulence in U.S. treasuries this quarter. The benchmark 10-year yield recorded one of its biggest weekly increases since 2001 after the "Liberation Day" shock. BlackRock's fixed-income executives expressed concerns last month that ballooning U.S. debt could suppress appetite for longer-dated treasuries and the dollar, which recorded its worst first-half performance this year since 1973. Widely considered safe haven assets, treasuries and the greenback have also suffered as markets price in tax cuts and spending hikes from Trump's recently passed "Big Beautiful Bill", which nonpartisan analysts predict will add more than $3 trillion to the country's $36.2 trillion debt. A weaker dollar tends to boost returns from foreign-currency assets. BlackRock recorded a positive foreign exchange impact of $171.52 billion in the quarter, compared with a $35.45 billion downward revision in the year-ago period. Its performance fees fell 42.7% to $94 million in the reported period, after falling nearly 71% in the first quarter. The low-cost investments juggernaut has been pivoting towards private markets and tech-enabled portfolio solutions to offset slowing growth in exchange-traded funds, a core part of its business through its iShares franchise. Fees on private assets provide higher margin revenue compared to those from ETFs, where BlackRock faces intense competition and fee compression as the market matures. Private markets saw inflows of $6.82 billion in the quarter. The New York-based firm said at its investor day last month that its private markets and technology businesses would make up 30% or more of its total revenue by 2030, up from 15% in 2024. As part of this push, BlackRock last month unveiled plans to include private assets in its retirement plans, which account for more than half of the money the company manages. The move follows peer State Street, which also launched a similar offering along with alternative asset manager Apollo in April. Technology services revenue rose 26.3% to $499 million, reflecting the first full quarter of data provider Preqin, which BlackRock bought in a $3.2 billion deal last year. The deal closed on March 3, 2025. Its total revenue - most of which is earned as a percentage of assets under management - rose to $5.42 billion from $4.81 billion a year ago. BlackRock's total expenses rose to $3.69 billion from $3.01 billion last year. Adjusted profit came in at $1.88 billion, or $12.05 per share, for the three months ended June 30, up from $1.55 billion, or $10.36 per share, a year earlier. (Reporting by Ateev Bhandari in Bengaluru and Anirban Sen in New York; Editing by Pooja Desai)
Zawya
35 minutes ago
- Zawya
OPEC to issue July oil market report at 1200 GMT
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will release its July monthly oil market report at 1200 GMT (1400 Vienna time) on Tuesday, OPEC said in an email. (Reporting by Alex Lawler)
