Schwab Trading Activity Index™: STAX Score Climbs Slightly After Three Months of Decline
The reading for the four-week period ending June 27, 2025, ranks 'low' compared to historic averages.
'One theme that carried throughout the June STAX period was the rotation into industrial and discretionary sectors and away from tech,' said Joe Mazzola, Head Trading and Derivatives Strategist at Charles Schwab. 'The industrial sector has been a top performer year-to-date, with all the talk of onshoring leading to increased infrastructure investment.'
As the S&P 500 index (SPX) set new record highs in June and climbed more than 5%, Schwab clients gingerly dipped their toes in the water but stayed cautious. The STAX climbed for the first month after three straight declines, but by less than 2.5% and not much above May's two-year lows.
The STAX improved the first three weeks of June but declined in the final full week of the month. And while up slightly on a month-to-month basis, the STAX remains well below its 2025 high of 51.94 posted in February and was outpaced by the SPX for the fourth straight month, hinting at prolonged caution by clients.
Tech has now seen strong selling by clients since December, excepting a short period of optimism in late January and early February. Meanwhile, the trend toward buying of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as opposed to individual stocks also remained popular, according to the June STAX data.
'For the fifth month in a row, information technology was the biggest net-sell sector on a dollar basis, and the reason we're seeing big net-outflows in tech is really Nvidia-based,' said Mazzola. 'This was the second month in a row of selling in Nvidia, and the selling came despite Nvidia's shares climbing around 15% during the period amid optimism about U.S. trade with China and rising demand for AI chips overall. Microsoft also saw net-selling as its shares hit new record highs. This could suggest clients getting nervous about the velocity of these moves and trimming into strength."
Stock market volatility fell again in June, easing as investors expected positive outcomes on both the tariff and U.S. budget front and despite geopolitical rumblings centered on war in the Middle East. The CBOE Volatility Index ® (VIX) traded well below its historic average of 20 by late June.
The May U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report showed 139,000 jobs created, slightly above expectations but down from a revised 147,000 in April, as unemployment remained low at 4.2%. Participation in the labor market fell to 62.4% from 62.6%, a reversal from April's gain.
Inflation reports in June offered fresh signs of price growth retreating, though not approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index generally featured price growth slowing from April, though core PCE that subtracts volatile food and energy prices rose 2.7% year over year, a slightly higher-than-expected reading.
The Fed kept rates unchanged at its June meeting at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, where it's been since December. Personal income fell a sharp 0.4% in May while spending slipped 0.1%. The reduced spending could reflect demand having been pulled forward into earlier in the year by tariff-based inflation worries.
Treasury note yields slipped in June, with the Treasury market gaining despite worries that the Republican budget plan could significantly raise U.S. debt (yields trade inversely to Treasuries). Yields fell below 4.3% for the benchmark 10-year note by late June, down about 30 basis points from a month earlier and not far from two-month lows.
Popular names bought by Schwab clients during the period included:
Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL)
Names net sold by Schwab clients during the period included:
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)
Meta Platforms Inc. (META)
Intel Corp. (INTC)
About the STAX
The STAX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary formula. Each month, Schwab pulls a sample from its client base of millions of funded accounts, which includes accounts that completed a trade in the past month. The holdings and positions of this statistically significant sample are evaluated to calculate individual scores, and the median of those scores represents the monthly STAX.
For more information on the Schwab Trading Activity Index, please visit www.schwab.com/investment-research/stax. Additionally, Schwab clients can chart the STAX using the symbol $STAX in either the thinkorswim ® or thinkorswim Mobile platforms.
Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Content intended for educational/informational purposes only. Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type.
Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision.
The STAX is not a tradable index. The STAX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial performance for Schwab.
About Charles Schwab
At Charles Schwab, we believe in the power of investing to help individuals create a better tomorrow. We have a history of challenging the status quo in our industry, innovating in ways that benefit investors and the advisors and employers who serve them, and championing our clients' goals with passion and integrity.
More information is available at aboutschwab.com. Follow us on X, Facebook, YouTube, and LinkedIn.
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