Two long shot picks to win the 2025 Belmont Stakes
Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards for more information.
Guessing where the prices will go ahead of a Triple Crown race can be a tricky endeavor.
There will be a lot more casual money in the pool than in a normal stakes race, so things can get a little funky behind the window as punters back horses with their favorite name, story, or connections.
But the betting handle for the 2025 Belmont Stakes should be pretty easy to project. Most of the money is going to show up on the two favorites, No. 7 Journalism (8-5) and No. 2 Sovereignty (2-1).
In all likelihood, Journalism and Sovereignty will go off shorter than 2-1, which could make this the tightest margin between the favorite and second choice at the Belmont Stakes since Strodes Creek (13-10) and Go For Gin (3-2) in 1994, per Ed DeRosa of Horse Racing Nation.
It is easy to make the case for either Journalism or Sovereignty to win this race — the morning-line odds suggest it's essentially a 75 percent chance one of the favorites comes out on top — but there's a reason there are eight horses in this field, and not just two.
After all, Go For Gin and Strodes Creek finished second and third, respectively, behind third-favorite Tabasco Cat in 1994.
Here are my 2025 Belmont Stakes long-shot picks:
No. 1 Hill Road (10-1)
This price should balloon on race day.
Not only will the punters be lining up to back the two headliners, but Baeza will be a trendy third choice, and Rodriguez will get plenty of support given the fact he's trained by Bob Baffert.
That should set up a situation where Hill Road, who began his career in Ireland, will fly under the radar and hit the board at a big number.
To do that, he'll need the race to follow a specific script.
Like Sovereignty, Hill Road is a closer who will want the pace to be hot, and then melt down in the business end of the race.
Should that happen, Hill Road could pass plenty of tiring foes on his way to a surprising finish.
Crudo in his stall after his morning workout at Saratoga Race Course.
Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
No. 5 Crudo (15-1)
There are a couple of horses that could earnestly attempt to go from gate to wire in this field.
Most pundits believe Rodriguez will be the horse that gets out into the lead from the jump, but Crudo could be right there with Baffert's entrant, or even jump out in front of the No. 3 horse.
Rodriguez will be the trendier pick between the two front-running horses.
Not only is he a Baffert-trained contender, but he will be fresh after he was scratched from the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness.
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
Those factors should keep his price in the single digits, while Crudo's odds hover around long-shot territory.
But the real reason that Crudo, trained by Todd Pletcher, is a live long shot at Saratoga on Saturday is that he just wired the field in the Sir Barton Stakes three weeks ago on Preakness Day.
The competition in that race was nowhere near what he'll face in the Belmont, but there's also a decent chance that this lightly raced horse owned by chef Bobby Flay and Jimmy Ventura continues to improve.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
16 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Sovereignty reigns over Journalism again in Belmont
Sovereignty won the 157th running of the Belmont Stakes on Saturday with Journalism coming in second. (AL BELLO) Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty won the 157th Belmont Stakes on Saturday, surging past favored Journalism just as he did at Churchill Downs to finish with two legs of this year's Triple Crown. After sitting out the Preakness, won in scintillating fashion by Journalism, Sovereignty returned to win the anticipated rematch in convincing fashion, pulling away in the final straight to relegate Journalism to second again. Advertisement Baeza was third to complete the repeat of the Kentucky Derby one-two-three. Italian jockey Umberto Rispoli guided the Michael McCarthy-trained Journalism to the front as they turned for home, closely tracked by Sovereignty -- who was taken wide by jockey Junior Alvarado and powered past to win by three lengths. Sovereignty, who had given the Godolphin stables a long-awaited first Kentucky Derby victory, became the first horse two win two legs of the Triple Crown since Justify became the 13th horse to sweep all three in 2018. Michael Banahan, Godolphin USA's director of bloodstock, said the decision to give Sovereignty the five weeks' rest he has become used to paid off with a "fantastic result". Advertisement "We knew he was a very good horse going into the Kentucky Derby and he showed it that day. "And to come back here again and beat a really, really good horse like Journalism today, running one-two again like they did in the Derby -- it was a fantastic result for us here." Sovereignty trainer Bill Mott said he was "on a cloud". "The horse proved himself," McCarthy said. "The form held up -- the first three finishers in the Derby were one-two-three today, and I think it just was a great race." For the second straight year the grade one race, with a purse of $2 million, was run at Saratoga because of ongoing renovations at Belmont Park, the distance again reduced from the Belmont's traditional 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4. Journalism was the only horse to run in all three Triple Crown races this year. bb/sev
New York Times
24 minutes ago
- New York Times
Horses, jockeys in the 2025 Belmont Stakes
Sovereignty wins two legs of this year's Triple Crown after winning the Kentucky Derby Associated Press Sovereignty has won today's 157th running of the Belmont Stakes, the third race in this year's Triple Crown. Sovereignty won two legs of this year's Triple Crown after winning the Kentucky Derby in May. Sovereignty beat Journalism, which won the Preakness Stakes, to the line for the win. The winning margin was three lengths. Baeza finished third. The race took place at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., for the second straight year as Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y., is undergoing construction. GO FURTHER Sovereignty surges down the stretch to win the Belmont Stakes Connections: Sports Edition Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Here are the horses, jockeys and trainers for tonight's Belmont Stakes. The following list is in order by post position: Hill Road - Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. - Trainer: Chad Brown Sovereignty - Jockey: Junior Alvarado - Trainer: Bill Mott Rodriguez - Jockey: Mike Smith - Trainer: Bob Baffert Uncaged - Jockey: Luis Saez - Trainer: Todd Pletcher Crudo - Jockey: John Velazquez - Trainer: Todd Pletcher Baeza - Jockey: Flavien Prat - Trainer: John Shirreffs Journalism - Jockey: Umberto Rispoli - Trainer: Michael McCarthy Heart of Honor - Jockey: Saffie Osborne - Trainer: Jamie Osborne The Grade 1, $500,000 Jaipur will be run Sunday as the 12th race, and the Grade 1, $1 million Manhattan will be the 13th. The Sunday card was originally scheduled to have 11 races. As a result of these changes, the New York Racing Association has refunded all wagers involving those races and canceled all the horizontal wagering (pick 4, pick 5, pick 6) after the sixth race today, a loss of millions of dollars. Imagn Images Journalism, which won the Preakness Stakes and finished second in the Kentucky Derby, was listed as the early favorite to win the Belmont Stakes after the post-position draw was held Monday evening. Journalism, which tops the field with 8-5 Morning Line odds to win the race, drew the No. 7 slot in the eight-horse field. Kentucky Derby-winner Sovereignty is just behind Journalism with 2-1 odds and will start from the No. 2 position. Check out the official odds below. GO FURTHER Preakness winner Journalism is early favorite to win Belmont Stakes Imagn Images It's the third and final leg of horse racing's Triple Crown. This year's 'Run for the Carnations' has a $2 million purse. The race was held at Belmont Park for most of the last century. But Saratoga Race Course is hosting this year's installment — the 157th — after its first try in 2024. There is a rejuvenated energy at this new venue, with last year's attendance capped at 50,000. Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby winner, skipped the Preakness but is back for the Belmont. The horse is slated at 2-1 odds. Journalism, the Preakness champ, is the clubhouse favorite at 8-5. Teresa Genaro The rain has also dampened the traditional "run for the tables" to snag a picnic table in Saratoga's capacious and ordinarily beautiful backyard. People line up for hours outside the gates before they open and then dash to their favorite spots to claim a table. On most big days, all the tables are gone within a few minutes of the gates opening. This morning, an hour after the gates opened at 9 a.m. ET, there were still tables available. So when turf races are moved to the dirt (they are seldom canceled entirely), you have horses that run only or primarily or best on grass, and their trainers have to desire to run them on a sloppy dirt course. Often, the distance of the race is also changed, because of the different circumferences of the various courses. Those scratches then lead to very small fields, which makes for terrible betting and low prices. As of now, Race 9, the Grade 1, $500,000 Jaipur is still on the turf, as is Race 12, the Grade 1, $1 million Manhattan. Race 6, the Grade 2, $300,000 Wonder Again and race 10, the Grade 3, $300,000 Pennine Ridge are off the turf. The rain has been torrential since early this morning, and its effect on today's racing card is already profound. Four races, including two stakes have already been taken off the turf, and as of 11 a.m. ET, 38 horses have been scratched. Why does this matter? What's a little rain, anyway? Rain softens the grass courses, which can prove dangerous for horses and which can also destroy the courses when the loose soil is kicked up by the horses' hooves. Some horses also just don't like running on soft ground. The weather is definitely the story. It's been pouring, everything is muddy, the grass races are off the turf. The Athletic The NBA Finals are underway, as is Stanley Cup Final, all while the MLB season is gradually rolling along. There's no better place to follow all the action than The Athletic , with our award-winning journalism covering all of the above and more. You can subscribe to The Athletic on an exclusive offer here. Imagn Images While this race is historically held at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y., for the second consecutive year due to construction, the race is being held at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. The event will return to Belmont Park in 2026. As a result, the race will not feature the typical 12-furlong or 1 1/2-mile length. Instead, the race will be 10 furlongs or 1 1/4 miles. Imagn Images Early coverage of the Belmont Stakes will be broadcast on FS1 from 10:30 a.m. ET until 2:30 p.m. ET. The remainder of the coverage can be found on Fox. You can also stream coverage on the Fox Sports App or Fubo. Imagn Images The post time for the Belmont Stakes is set for 7:04 p.m. ET. That is 4:04 p.m. PT and 6:04 p.m. CT. Welcome to The Athletic's live coverage of the 2025 Belmont Stakes! While this race is historically held at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y., for the second consecutive year due to construction, the race is being held at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. The event will return to Belmont Park in 2026. Regardless, it should be an engaging day of racing on the track and of course, the winner of the Stakes will take home a purse of $2 million. Follow along throughout the day for the latest odds, analysis and reaction.
Fox Sports
33 minutes ago
- Fox Sports
Sovereignty beats Journalism to win the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga
Associated Press SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. (AP) — Sovereignty outran Journalism on Saturday in a Kentucky Derby rematch in the 157th Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course, the race once again showcasing the best in horse racing. Like last year, it featured the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winners. However, unlike last year and for the first time since 2018, one of those two won to secure two of the three legs of the Triple Crown. 'I think they are three really good horses,' Sovereignty trainer Bill Mott said. 'I'm glad (Sovereignty) was able to come back and have a race like he did in the Derby.' It was the second Belmont win for Mott. He spends most of his summer tending to his horses at Saratoga, so winning the Belmont at Saratoga was extra special. 'This is home,' Mott said. 'It's the race we were pointing for after the Derby, and fortunately it worked out very well… The horse was good. Junior rode him well.' It was the second Belmont at Saratoga, with renovations being made to its usual home at Belmont Park on Long Island. Rodriguez, who made his Triple Crown debut, burst out and led the field of eight in the 1 1/4- mile race until the top of the stretch when Journalism made a surge. Followed closely behind was Sovereignty, with jockey Junior Alverado aboard. He caught Journalism almost instantly and ran away with it. The 5-2 second favorite finished in 2:00.69, beating Preakness winner Journalism by three lengths. 'He broke very well again today like he's been doing,' Alverado said. 'He put himself in a good spot. I was a little shocked how close, but at the same time, I'm happy with how easily he was doing everything. As a jockey, I was very happy where he was.' Journalism ended up in second again, and Baeza was third — the same 1-2-3 as the Kentucky Derby. Journalism, the only horse to run in all three legs, entered the gate at the Belmont as the 2-1 favorite, with Baeza the third favorite at 7-2. Sovereignty paid $7 to win, $3.20 to place and $2.30 to show. Journalism returned $3.20 and $2.30, and Baeza paid $2.60. Sovereignty led off the first leg of the Triple Crown by winning the Derby in early May. The colt also edged Journalism in that race. After the Derby win, the Godolphin-owned 3-year-old opted out of the Preakness to focus on the Belmont, forfeiting a shot at history to win the Triple Crown. The Triple Crown hasn't been won since 2018, when Bob Baffert's Justify won the 105th Belmont Stakes to secure the third jewel. Despite winning both legs of the Triple Crown that Sovereignty entered, Mott and Godolphin's Michael Banahan didn't regret not running him in the Preakness Stakes. 'I think if you leave the races out of it, it's what was the right thing to do for the horse,' Banahan said. 'That's what we talked about — what was the right thing for the horse to do going forward?' One of the reasons Mott and Godolphin skipped the Preakness was that they didn't want to exhaust the horse and wanted a long future for the three-year-old. There are a couple of stakes races later in the summer for three-year-olds, but the main one is at the end of the year, the Travers Stakes. The Travers, at the end of the Saratoga meet, could be another loaded field and potentially another rematch between Journalism and Sovereignty. 'I'd love to come back and take a crack at the Travers in August,' Mott said. 'It's a race I've never won, but I think it's a very important race for a three-year-old like Sovereignty. I think if he's healthy, everybody would probably be in agreement that's the race we would point to.' ___ AP horse racing: in this topic
