Trump's tariff drama is playing out as a tragicomedy in three acts

Mint

2 days ago

American President Donald Trump's tariff drama is a play in five acts. As students of theatre will know, five-act plays were the norm until the 18th century. Roman playwrights Seneca and Horace wrote five-act plays with musical interludes.
Shakespeare followed that tradition. Similarly, ancient Sanskrit dramas were structured as five 'arthaprakritis' or transitions. Contemporary plays are not bound by too much structure, but are typically performed in three acts or less. Let's look at Trump's drama since he took office in early 2025.
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Act 1—the Mukha in Sanskrit or Exposition in Western theatre: In the opening scene on 2 April, the protagonist Donald Trump unveils massive 'reciprocal tariffs' on all countries.
While no one is spared his 10% base rate, 'friends' and 'adversaries' are revealed. Some countries fall in the 'low' US tariff range of 10-30%, like the UK, while others like the EU are subject to a 30-60% range, and China is singled out for up to 185% in total tariffs.
One might say that Act 1 had a prelude: Trump's 2024 election manifesto. Intellectual 'justification' for his sweeping tariffs was provided by a document entitled 'A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System' by Stephen Miran, who chairs Trump's Council of Economic Advisors and was just appointed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Act 2—Pratimukha or rising action: This is where complications arise and the plot begins to thicken. The first scene of this act begins soon after markets collapse in response to Trump's drastic tariff action. In particular, a US bond market selloff requires a pullback from exorbitant rates and a three-month moratorium to do 'deals.'
In a bit of an anti-climax, nothing much happens for the first three months, necessitating a further extension of a month. During this month (July or Shravan), a 'trade swayamvar' of sorts takes place, with countries lining up to strike deals and woo the protagonist. The UK is first off the block and many others follow, including the EU, Japan and South Korea.
In the end, Brazil, Switzerland and India are scorned by the protagonist. Even adversaries like China appear to get away with a pause. Here, the development is closer to that of a Sanskrit plot, where the 'rasa' or sentiment of shock and betrayal for some and relief for others is palpable. Today, we appear to be in the ending scenes of this act.
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Act 3—Garbha or plot development towards climax: Sanskrit drama deviates slightly from the Roman form in acts 3 and 4. In Sanskrit drama, act 3 emphasizes the difference between good and evil and stresses the 'phala' or fruit of good action. Western drama adds conflict and tension that can be seen building up towards an identifiable climax.
Trump's drama is likely to follow the Western pattern here. The most likely source of resistance to Trump's policy is likely to come from the lower judiciary in the US. The US Court of International Trade (CIT) based in Manhattan was the first to declare most of Trump's global tariffs illegal, ruling that they exceeded the president's legal authority under America's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). A Federal Court of Appeals has stayed the CIT decision.
The case is very likely to wind up in the US Supreme Court. America's conservative top court will have to balance its strong belief in the unitary executive (i.e., a US president endowed with wide discretionary powers) and the constitutional legality of applying IEEPA on a non-temporary basis for an unclear emergency.
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Act 4—Vimarsa or falling action: Western drama de-escalates in intensity and emotion during this phase, whereas in Sanskrit drama, a secondary round of complications, nuances and double meanings arise. The meaning of 'vimarsa' is profound; it is the self-reflective force that allows consciousness to recognize itself. It is linked to free will and expression and connotes engagement and intentionality.
One may be able to safely conclude that self-reflection is unlikely from the US executive. More likely, as in the Western format of theatre, tension will de-escalate with the US Supreme Court siding with Trump's view.
Act 5—Nirvahana or denouement: A temporary equilibrium will be reached with high tariff rates and slow global growth. Even if inflation is only episodic, interest rates will have to remain higher than otherwise to guard against inflation expectations building up.
The executive branch governance in the US does not appear to have the bandwidth to convert 'framework deals' into a series of bilateral trade agreements. The impact of Trump's experiment will broadly be negative. The protagonist may have 'won,' at least in his own view, but almost everyone else will be a loser.
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In many ways, Trump's tariff drama is closer to a Sanskrit play than a Western one. It has been largely about rasa or emotion and the unsupported views of a single individual. The structure of the drama itself is fluid, with ups and downs, the sycophancy of small characters and flattery as an instrument of negotiation.
In one sense, though, its finale may look more like a Western drama. Sanskrit plays typically have a happy ending, reflecting the greater good of the greater many. Western plays, at least in the classical tradition, most often conclude with pathos and end as tragedies. The resolution of Trump's drama will have to be political. We may need to wait for US mid-term elections, perhaps even longer.
P.S: 'If the king is not rooted in dharma, his kingdom does not shine," says Bhasa's third Century CE Sanskrit play 'Urubhanga.'
The author is chairman, InKlude Labs. Read Narayan's Mint columns at www.livemint.com/avisiblehand