Signals Of Scale: How We Identify The Next Billion-Dollar Startups

Forbes

2 days ago

Since 2015, the Next Billion-Dollar Startups list – produced in partnership with TrueBridge Capital – has highlighted rapidly growing, venture-backed startups with the potential to endure and thrive over the long term. As of mid-2025, with more than 54,000 venture-backed startups operating in the U.S. alone, selecting the 25 with the strongest potential to achieve valuations in excess of a billion dollars has become increasingly difficult. A defining trend among this year's honorees is capital efficiency – these startups are scaling quickly while maximizing limited resources.
While we periodically review the methodology behind the Next Billion-Dollar Startups, the core framework has remained largely consistent since the list's inception. The process begins with nominations from top-tier venture capitalists, who put forward the startups they see as the most promising. We also conduct direct outreach to companies we believe fit the profile.
To qualify for the list, companies must meet a set of clear criteria: they must be based in the United States, meaning their headquarters or CEO resides domestically; they must be privately held and venture-backed; their current valuation must be under $1 billion; and they must be willing to share key data for analysis.
TrueBridge, data partner for the list, receives the confidential submission data and runs a comprehensive analytical model to produce the list, which is then shared with Forbes. With this partnership, startups can feel confident in submitting sensitive information including financial metrics. Any data that is ultimately included in the Next Billion-Dollar Startups story is provided directly to Forbes reporters by the companies during original reporting for the list.
The analysis draws from both submitted information and publicly available data. A range of metrics are considered in the model, some of which carry more weight than others. These include team size, user or customer base, annual revenue, valuation, and capital raised, as well as the growth rates of each of these metrics.
In addition, we examine qualitative indicators such as the strength and experience of founding teams as well as the distinct ways in which startups position themselves in their respective markets. Our evaluation includes a close look at founders' track records, leadership capabilities, and strategic vision. We believe that understanding how companies differentiate themselves and how leaders navigate challenges gives us deeper insight into the long-term potential of founding teams and companies.
With AI continuing to command investor attention – and overshadowing many other sectors – competition for investment is fierce. In this environment, only the most capital-efficient startups, led by resilient and visionary founding teams, are managing to secure the funding needed to sustain growth. Now more than ever, strong leadership is a key differentiator in determining which startups break through.
By outlining the process behind the Next Billion-Dollar Startups list, we aim to spotlight the companies demonstrating extraordinary growth and long-term promise, and the visionary leaders driving them forward. We also hope to shed light on emerging investment patterns and market dynamics shaping the future of innovation.
Further details on the Next Billion-Dollar Startups model and evaluation criteria can be found on the submission site. If you're interested in being notified when submissions open each year, please reach out.