Investing in Space: You're in or you're out

CNBC

6 days ago

There's an air of 'been there, done that' about the Moon these days.
Increasingly, the great minds of the space industry seem to be thinking bigger — and, since the start of the year, redder.
If you had doubts the Moon's being eclipsed of late, they might be dismissed by the recent announcement that aerospace group Thales Alenia Space and the Italian Space Agency will develop the first human lunar habitat, in a key update for the NASA-led Artemis program.
"Artemis' purpose is to ensure a sustainable human presence on the Moon as a stepping stone for future missions to Mars," the press release says. "Stepping stone" inevitably stands out.
China and India have only landed spacecrafts on lunar soil since the late 2010s, with commercial companies achieving the feat since the start of last year. Yet Moon ventures have gradually come to be seen as a pitstop, rather than a standalone final destination — with attention pivoting to the bigger, juicier endgame of setting boots on Mars.
Just check out U.S. President Donald Trump and SpaceX founder Elon Musk's effusive enthusiasm for colonizing the red planet: the rhetoric's shifted, even though lunar activity is set to dominate NASA's social calendar through the Artemis initiative over the next few years. After debuting with an uncrewed test assignment back in 2022, the next three missions under the Artemis program's umbrella target a manned flight around April next year, a South Pole human expedition in mid-2027 and delivering astronauts to live and work in the Gateway station — a NASA-led multi-agency venture — at some point in 2028.
At the same time, the American space agency is still pressing ahead with its Commercial Lunar Payload Services program (CLPS, colloquially called 'Clips'), capitalizing on the lower costs of the private sector to deliver science and tech payloads to the Moon. NASA previously said it's earmarked a combined maximum of $2.6 billion for contracts between the program's premiere in 2024 through 2028. Just two missions took place last year, with four due in 2025, and a handful more scheduled over the next few years.
The original space race kicked off in the 1950s as a largely two-nation exhibit of national pride, tech prowess and military firepower. It was the spiritual successor of the nuclear race between Russia and the U.S. during the Cold War — and began to wind down after Neil Armstrong's first step on the Moon in 1969.
The chase to reach Mars first is drawing a slightly bigger crowd. China's put down establishing a research base on Mars on its wish list by 2038 and has previously said it plans to send a manned mission to the red planet five years prior. The European Space Agency is setting sights on robotic exploration and sample returns off Mars in the short term and two years ago said it plans to send Europeans to the planet by 2040.
Russia, meanwhile, has been more guarded about disclosing its Mars plans. It has signaled intentions to work toward such missions alone after the 2022 suspension of the joint 1 billion euro ExoMars mission with the European Space Agency, in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
The appeal of Mars is inevitable, once you shrug off any Hollywood heebie-jeebies about the hostility of the possible alien life. It's got more "Earth-like" environmental conditions than the Moon and decent potential for sustained hospitality (though some have made the case for one of Saturn's moons, Titan). But it'll be interesting to see whether national space agencies shift gears toward Mars — leaving Moon projects to increasingly become the province of private space companies that have been flocking to fill the gap.
One of them has been making this past week's headlines: building on the successful, upright landing of its Blue Ghost rover back in March, Northrop Grumman-backed Firefly Aerospace has now set sights on financial light-off and seeks a $5.5 billion valuation for its upcoming initial public offering. It boasts a backlog of roughly $1.1 billion and a sixfold jump in revenue to $55.9 million at the end of March. But it competes in a landscape of increasingly more advanced and cheaply-made satellites, orbital congestion and high developmental costs — with titan rivals ranging from Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin to SpaceX and national governments. Fitting to our theme, it's just been awarded its fifth CLPS contract worth $176.7 million to deliver five NASA-sponsored payloads to the Moon's South Pole in 2029.
NASA and Roscosmos chiefs to hold talks — Sean Duffy, the interim head of NASA, and Roscosmos head Dmitry Bakanov will hold discussions this week, when the SpaceX Crew-11 departs for the International Space Station. It will be the first meeting at the agencies' bosses level since 2018. — Reuters
The U.S. Space Command's prep work for satellite combat — The Economist investigates the U.S. Space Command's operations to make ready for satellite-to-satellite engagements. — The Economist
China launches new cluster of Guowang satellites — Beijing has launched the sixth group of satellites for the Guowang megaconstellation, which it began to build in December 2024. — Space News
How figuring out food for space can improve delivering it on Earth — Nature looks at food sourcing and storage problems rampant both in space and on Earth, including optimizing nutrition and figuring out alternative protein supplies. — Nature
UK must protect its space interests, space commander says — Britain must 'control space' and position itself more assertively in the industry amid competition from other nations, Major General Paul Tedman said. — Orbital Today
Russia seeks to develop reusable rocket within two years — Moscow is looking to develop a reusable rocket for more cost-effective launches within 18-24 months, after technical specifications were approved in June, according to national space agency Roscosmos. — The Moscow Times
U.S. Space Force to launch 8th X-37B mission — The U.S. Space Force and the Air Force Raid Capabilities Office will carry out the eighth X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle mission in late August aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. These demos typically feature next-gen tech such as laser communications and quantum inertial sensors. — U.S. Space Force
NASA says 20% of workforce to leave — Around 3,870 employees — or roughly 20% of the existing staff — are set to depart NASA, an agency spokesperson said, leaving a remaining workforce of around 14,000 people.— Reuters
First Australia-made rocket crashes after take-off — The privately developed Australia-made Eris rocket failed to reach orbit amid engine failures during its test flight from the Bowen Orbital Spaceport in Queensland. — Ars Technica
Firefly Aerospace seeks $5.5 billion valuation for upcoming IPO — Texas-based Firefly Aerospace has set a range of $35 to $39 per share for its upcoming listing, in which it plans to sell roughly 16.2 million stock. — CNBC
U.S. selects five firms for anti-jam satellite comms — The U.S. Space Force picked Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Intelsat, Viasat and Astranis a combined $37 million to develop communication satellites that defend against enemy jamming. — Defense News
Thales Alenia Space and ASI to develop first lunar outpost — Thales Alenia Space and the Italian Space Agency inked a contract to develop the first human habitat on the Moon, in a key step for NASA's Artemis program. — Thales Alenia Space
Aug. 3 — Amazon's Blue Origin to take off on a crewed suborbital flight out of Texas
Aug. 4 — SpaceX's Falcon 9 launches with Starlink satellites out of Florida
Aug. 4 — China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation's Long March 12 to depart with SatNet communication satellites out of Wenchang
Aug. 7 — SpaceX's Falcon 9 to launch with Starlink satellites out of Florida