JPMorgan CEO Dimon's comments highlight steady caution on US economy
While the longtime CEO expressed optimism about the health of the consumer, he reiterated concerns about tariffs and trade uncertainty, worsening geopolitical conditions, high fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices.
The bank remains measured when making projections, Dimon said, citing past crises that caught many off guard.
"Our forecasting of the future is very complex. You probably heard me say that sometimes it's a complete waste of time. Most people cannot really pick inflection points," he said.
Earlier in the year, Dimon had cautioned about the risk of recession, the possibility of credit spreads widening and inflation rising.
His comments reflect a broader challenge facing policymakers and markets. While precise economic projections are often challenging because of backward-looking data that is frequently revised, unpredictable factors can throw even seasoned observers off course.
A December study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis examined the Blue Chip Survey of Professional Forecasters, an average of projections from about 50 economists, from 1993 to 2024, and found that actual GDP growth came within the forecast range just 44% of the time.
Here is a timeline of Dimon's public comments on the U.S. economy over the past few quarters:
Source: Reuters stories, earnings statements
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