Democrats could lose New York in 2026, thanks to Kathy Hochul

The Hill

11-06-2025

One year from now, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is likely to be entering the final stretch of a hotly contested Democratic primary. If recent polling and political developments are any indication, she won't be doing so from a position of strength.
Despite the built-in advantages of incumbency and her party's sizable enrollment edge, Hochul appears to be one of the most politically vulnerable governors in the country.
The fundamentals should favor her. New York is, by any measure, a Democratic state — no Republican has won statewide since George Pataki won his third term as governor in 2002. But the data tell another story. A recent Siena College poll shows that a majority of New Yorkers would prefer someone else in the governor's office.
Among independents, Hochul's favorability remains underwater. Even among Democrats, her standing is underwhelming. Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, who recently announced he would challenge Hochul in 2026, and Rep. Ritchie Torres (D), another potential 2026 contender, already post stronger favorable-to-unfavorable numbers than the incumbent. In a three-way primary with Delgado and Torres, the Siena poll suggests that although Hochul leads her rivals, she would fall short of 50 percent.
This is not the profile of a governor cruising toward an easy reelection.
Hochul's problem is not ideological incoherence but institutional weakness. She occupies what is arguably the most powerful state executive office in the country. The New York Constitution grants the governor sweeping authority over the budget, including the power to insert policy changes and force the legislature's hand through extender bills that allow the state to continue functioning while budget negotiations continue. And yet, in the spring of 2025, Hochul's budget was delayed by more than five weeks — not because Republicans stood in her way, but because her fellow Democrats did.
Rather than use the tools of her office to shape the process, Hochul appeared to shrink from conflict with Democratic state legislators. Legislative leaders extracted key concessions, and the final budget satisfied few. Seasoned Albany observers were left marveling at how thoroughly the governor had been rolled by legislators in her own party.
Such ineffectiveness would have been unthinkable under Hochul's predecessor, Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo, a master political operator, understood how to wield the tools of executive power to achieve his goals. Hochul, by contrast, has projected indecision and incompetence. Democratic insiders, including state legislators, labor leaders and other elected officials, have taken note. There is even open discussion in Albany of amending the state constitution to rein in the governor's budgetary powers. That such a proposal is even being entertained by members of her own party signals how little authority Hochul commands within New York's Democratic political establishment.
The deterioration is not merely procedural — it is also philosophical. The 2025 budget battle exposed growing rifts between Hochul and progressive Democrats in the state legislature. Her push for a 'bell-to-bell' cellphone ban in schools and a rollback of the state's 2019 criminal discovery reforms were framed as commonsense responses to real problems. But to the legislature's increasingly progressive membership, they looked like symbolic, regressive intrusions on hard-won reforms. Hochul ultimately secured partial, but costly, victories: key political players in her own party no longer view her as a reliable or competent leader.
There is also the matter of her repeated and consistent electoral underperformance.
In 2014, running for lieutenant governor alongside Andrew Cuomo, Hochul, while ultimately victorious, lost key Democratic counties — including Manhattan, Albany and Schenectady — to her little-known opponent, Tim Wu. Four years later, she barely fended off Jumaane Williams, then a member of the New York City Council, in the lieutenant governor's primary, even as Cuomo coasted to victory over actress and activist Cynthia Nixon. And in 2022, Hochul won a full term as governor by a mere 6-point margin over Long Island's Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) — the narrowest victory for a Democrat running for governor of New York in four decades.
In more than a decade on the statewide political stage, Hochul has never shown the capacity to excite her base, grow her party or expand her coalition. The numbers don't lie: Hochul wins, but always by a much closer margin than seasoned political observers would expect.
Her weakness offers Republicans an opportunity. If the GOP can field a credible, well-funded candidate in 2026 — particularly one who can energize the Republican base, speak to concerns about crime and affordability, and exploit Democratic dissatisfaction with Hochul — the party could make a real play for the governorship.
The road is steep but not implausible. New York remains, by the numbers, one of the bluest states in the nation. But even in the bluest of states, governors must perform. Kathy Hochul has yet to prove she can lead her own party, let alone the state. These ongoing political problems might cause her political career to come to an abrupt end in 2026.
Joe Burns is a partner with the Holtzman Vogel law firm, with a focus on election cases in New York State. He previously served as deputy director of election operations at the New York State Board of Elections.