Another late-night Trump trade twist — just hours before the world hit go

CNBC

5 days ago

Another day, another deadline and another trade curveball from U.S. President Donald Trump just before the buzzer.
The tariff deadline was set for August 1. Markets were watching. Countries were calculating. And then, right before midnight, came another announcement: 40% tariffs on transshipped goods, new rates for dozens of nations, and yet another reshuffling of Trump's trade playbook. All set to begin next week.
If this feels familiar, it's because it is.
We've seen this before. In April, Trump stunned global markets with a blanket 10% tariff hike, followed by a pause, and then a partial reinstatement. The July 9 restart was delayed at the last minute and pushed to August 1. Each time, businesses scrambled. Leaders called Washington. Trade lawyers worked overtime. But the element of surprise remained.
This isn't just erratic policymaking. It's a signature Trump move.
His leadership style mixes showmanship, brinkmanship, and a firm belief in the power of unpredictability. Announcements often come via social media. Deadlines shift. Pressure builds. And when the world thinks the playbook is set, Trump throws in one more twist.
It's the Art of the Deal, reimagined for geopolitics. And while the tactics may appear chaotic, they've produced results — at least by Trump's standards.
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is a prime example. Trump repeatedly threatened to scrap the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) unless Canada and Mexico agreed to stricter terms. After months of tense, down-to-the-wire talks and even a few midnight calls, the deal was signed. It came with tougher rules on automotive content, labor, and digital trade.
Just days before implementing sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs, Trump announced a headline-grabbing agreement with the U.K., calling it a "very big and exciting day."
The message was clear: act fast or face tariffs.
Stephen Olson, Senior Visiting Fellow at ISEAS – Yuosf Ishak Institute and former U.S. trade negotiator, told CNBC this week that Trump has "fundamentally rewritten the rules of global trade."
Olson further added that with the U.S. stepping away from the very free trade system it once built and led, it's unclear whether that system can still hold together.
"Don't assume this is the end of the story. Trump regards this as an ongoing reality show. More 'deals' or further tariff increases are almost certain to follow. While we haven't returned entirely to a 'law of the jungle' system, we have taken several huge strides back in that direction."
This week's moves feels like it's cut from the same cloth. Countries like Thailand and Malaysia saw their rates adjusted at the last moment, while others, such as Canada, were hit harder. Even neutral Switzerland wasn't spared, slapped with a steep 39% tariff despite no major bilateral tension.
The timing of the 40% penalty on transshipped goods is notable, given that the U.S. and China are currently negotiating a trade deal.
But diplomacy-by-disruption carries costs. Global markets are jittery. CEOs across industries — from autos to semiconductors — are now building uncertainty into their forecasts. Investors dislike surprises and supply chains don't pivot that fast.
There's a broader question here: Can a global economy function if one of its most influential players changes the rules at night?
For companies and countries alike, Trump's late-night decisions have become a variable of their own. It's not just what he says. It's also when he says it.
"The high rates on some countries which have not reached a deal with Trump yet are indeed mostly part of Trump's scare tactics. I expect many of them to be reduced after negotiations. Trump's deadlines are very flexible, after all," Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, told CNBC on Friday.
So, here we are again. Another Trump tariff deadline, another late-night curveball. Companies, countries, and investors are left to adjust on the fly, with little time and even less clarity. It's not the first time and it may not be the last.