What's at stake for Europe if Strait of Hormuz is blocked?

Euronews

a day ago

Revolutionary Guard commander Sardar Esmail Kowsari told local media in an interview closing the Strait of Hormuz "is under consideration, and Iran will make the best decision with determination."
"Our hands are wide open when it comes to punishing the enemy, and the military response was only part of our overall response," added Kowsari, who is a member of parliament in addition to his military position.
Iran's short- and medium-range missiles would be capable of targeting oil infrastructure platforms, pipelines in the Strait, or even attacking commercial vessels, and surface-to-surface missiles could target tankers or ports along the Gulf. Airstrikes using aircraft and drones could disable navigation or radar equipment at major shipping ports in the region.
Unmanned drones like Iran's Shahed models could potentially be used to attack specific shipping lanes or infrastructure in the Strait. Iran could attempt to deploy warships to physically block access to the Strait. In 2012, Iran launched a cyberattack on Saudi Arabia's oil industry, showing its growing capability in this domain.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategically vital chokepoints in the world, and any blockade by Iran would pose serious risks for Europe.
Blocking the Strait was one of four Iranian responses to the conflict including terrorist acts on mainland Europe which security expert Claude Moniquet cited in an interview with Euronews.
It would be 'a disaster for Europe', the former French intelligence office said.
Here are some of the reasons why.
Roughly 20% of global oil and a significant portion of natural gas pass through the Strait. Europe imports oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Gulf states Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE much of which travels through the Strait. If Iran blocks it, global oil prices would spike, and Europe could face energy shortages, especially in countries dependent on Middle Eastern fuel.
A sudden oil price surge would increase inflation, energy costs, and disrupt industries across Europe. Manufacturing, transport, and agriculture sectors would be especially vulnerable. Market reactions and volatility in European stock exchanges could be a knock-on effect.
A blockade could trigger military confrontations involving the US, EU navies, and Gulf states, risking a broader regional war. Europe might be drawn into the conflict through NATO obligations or alliances, especially with countries like France or the UK maintaining naval presence in the region.
Beyond oil, the Strait is a key route for global shipping. Disruption could delay European imports of raw materials, electronics, and consumer goods, affecting supply chains. Insurance premiums for shipping could spike, raising costs for European businesses and consumers.
At least three people have been injured and 100 tonnes of humanitarian aid were destroyed after a Russian drone strike on a warehouse in Ukraine's southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia in the early hours of Saturday.
The injured were two police officers and a civilian, according to local officials. The damage from the strike is estimated at around $3 million. The aid was set to be provided to people who were internally displaced, as well as to residents in frontline areas of the war.
Shops, a multi-storey building and a public transport stop were also reportedly damaged in the attack.
Oleksandr Beluga, founder of the NGO Beluga UA, told local media ""Now everything has been destroyed, two days ago we received help from 5 trucks. There is approximately $3 million worth of damage here."
Aside from Zaporizhzhia, the regions of Kharkiv, Donetsk and Dnipro were also targeted in an attack which consisted of a total of 58 Shahedattack UAVs, as well as various types of imitation drones, reported the Ukrainian air force.
43 were neutralised, they said, with 23 being shot down and 20 having their signals jammed.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military also reported that it had carried out overnight drone strikes targeting two Russian chemical plants that were tied to the production of explosives.
"As part of efforts to reduce (Russia's) ability to produce explosives and ammunition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' drone systems, in coordination with other Defense Forces units, struck critical facilities of Russia's military-industrial complex overnight," said Ukraine's General Staff.
The chemical plants were reportedly located in Stavropol Krai and Samara Oblast. Both were identified as major suppliers of raw materials and components for the production of Russia's weapons and fuel.
The Stavropol governor confirmed the strike, saying that drone debris had landed in the city's industrial zone.
On Friday, the bodies of 1,200 soldiers were returned to Ukraine as part of an agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine during their 2 June peace talks in Istanbul.
Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War released a statement saying that Russia returned 1,200 bodies, and 'according to the Russian side, the bodies belong to Ukrainian citizens, in particular military personnel.'
It was the only tangible achievement of the Istanbul talks, with 1,212 bodies also being returned by Russia earlier this week, with 27 dead soldiers going the other way.
The two sides conducted a prisoners of war swap on Thursday, which included badly wounded and gravely ill captives. Their numbers were not disclosed, however.