Scott Power: ASX health stocks rise as Healthscope landlord agrees to rent deferral deal

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ASX health stocks up 1.2% over past five days while the broader market is up 0.8%
HealthCo REIT agrees to short-term partial rent deferral with troubled Healthscope and its receivers
New-Zealand-based soft-tissue repair company Aroa Biosurgery delivers maiden full-year profit
Healthcare and life sciences expert Scott Power, who has been a senior analyst with Morgans Financial for 27 years, gives his take on the ASX healthcare sector for the week and his 'Powerplay' stock pick.
The big story for Australia's health care sector this week was Australia's second largest private hospital provider unlisted Healthscope appointing receivers after Canadian private equity owner Brookfield earlier handed the business over to its lenders owing ~$1.6 billion.
The HMC Capital (ASX:HMC) controlled Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (ASX:HCW) – which owns four properties tenanted by Healthscope – have struck a short-term partial rent deferral deal with Healthscope and its receivers.
In 2023, HCW and the Unlisted Healthcare Fund (UHF) bought 11 privately owned hospital buildings from NYSE-listed Medical Properties Trust for a total of $1.2bn.
Healthscope is the tenant in all 11 hospitals — four owned by HCW and seven by UHF. HCW owns 49.6% of UHF, with the rest owned by other large institutional investors.
Under the rental deal:
All outstanding rent arrears for March and April 2025 and 85% of rent for May 2025 will be paid immediately
HCW and UHF will receive 85% of the rent due for the period June-August 2025
The remaining 15% deferred rent for the May-August 2025 period is due in September 2025
HCW said it had also received formal expressions of interest from alternative Australian hospital operators to re-tenant the facilities.
In a note to clients Morgans' research analyst Liam Schofield wrote the deal represented positive progress, with the temporary 15% incentive lower than the 50% incentive for the initial two years agreed under the recently expired original lease agreement.
"The agreement calls for the 15% incentive (from May to Aug) to be repaid in Sep-25 (suggesting there is potential for HCW to receive full rent going forward)," he wrote.
"We have factored in a permanent ~20% rent reduction to the Healthscope assets, with the 15% incentive potentially pointing to a reduced rent level something closer to market (in our opinion) and above our expectations."
Schofield wrote the HCW unit price would likely rise if a revised lease agreement was secured, where 100% of a slightly reduced rent (around 10-15% below the current level) was paid consistently and sustainably. However, he believes this is unlikely to happen until Healthscope is formally sold by receivers.
He wrote that HCW was a diversified healthcare REIT with high-quality assets and scale.
"The portfolio is valued at $1.6bn, with 57% of the portfolio exposed to private hospitals.
"The financial restructure of Healthscope (a key tenant) and its capacity to pay 100% of the rent is the key catalyst (currently 50% rent abatement)."
Given the uncertainty, Morgans have a hold rating on HCW and 90 cent price target based on its net asset valuation.
Stronger week for healthcare stocks
At 2.45pm (AEST) on Friday the S&P/ASX 200 Health Care index was up 1.2% for the past five days, while the benchmark ASX 200 rose 0.8% for the same period.
"Markets are holding their ground" Power said.
Power's Powerplay: Neuren on track for phase III trial
Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX:NEU) is Power's pick of the week after holding its AGM on Tuesday. Power said a main takeaway from the AGM was that its second drug candidate NNZ-2591 continues to progress in development for multiple neurodevelopmental disorders with a pivotal trial for Phelan-McDermid Syndrome on track to start later this year.
Neuren became the first company in the world to develop a treatment for Rett Syndrome with trofinetide (marketed as Daybue) approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in March 2023.
"They're planning to start the pivotal trial for Phelan-McDermid later this year and they've got plenty of cash to execute on that so are in a pretty good position."
The Neuren share price is up ~10% for the week.
Aroa reports maiden full-year profit for FY25
New-Zealand-based soft-tissue repair company Aroa Biosurgery (ASX:ARX) has delivered its first full-year profit since listing on the ASX in 2020.
With the New Zealand financial year ending on March 31, Aroa reported a normalised EBITDA profit of NZ$4.2 million for FY25, rebounding from a NZ$3.1 million loss in FY24.
Total revenue for FY25 of NZ$84.7m was an increase of 23% on the previous year and exceeded guidance of NZ$81-84m.
Product revenue for the year reached NZ$84m, up 24% from the previous year, driven largely by the continued strong performance of its Myriad product family.
Aroa has provided FY26 total revenue guidance of NZ$92-100m, which is 10 to 20% growth on FY25 on a constant currency basis.
"They reported ahead of their guidance bearing in mind their guidance had been revised down so it was good they could slightly exceed it," Power said.
"They've set themselves what we consider to be conservative guidance for '26 so we think they will come in at the upper end or above that."
Power said Morgans had adjusted its sales numbers down slightly, which still has it at the top end of guidance.
"We have brought our EBITDA number down quite significantly to sit at the top end of guidance for FY26 so we have our adjusted our price target back to 77 cents from 93 cents so still plenty of upside from the current share price," he said.
Morgans maintains a speculative buy on Aroa.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare FY25 results beat guidance
Meanwhile, New Zealand-based medical devices supplier Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (ASX:FPH) reported stronger-than-expected results for FY25, with an adjusted net profit of NZ$377.2 million, up 43% beating both market expectations (NZ$362m) and company guidance (NZ$320–370m).
Revenue came in at NZ$2.02bn, up 16% and also slightly ahead of expectations.
The strong result was driven by solid growth across hospital consumables, an increase in gross profit margin to 62.9% and lower-than-expected operating expenses at NZ$761m.
This led to a jump in operating profit margin to 25.2%, ahead of the expected 24.5%.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare declared a final dividend of 24 cents, bringing the full-year dividend to 42.5 cents, a 2% increase.
"The hospital division is showing good progress, with consumable uptake exceeding expectations," Morgans healthcare analyst Derek Jellinek wrote in a note to clients.
"As for as the Homecare division goes, it should come as little surprise that growth is being driven by increased mask sales, given new product launches and abating supply chain issues."
Jellinek said in the Homecare division, it was no surprise that growth was being fuelled by higher sales of its obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) masks with new product launches and easing supply chain issues.
He said despite Philips still largely absent from the OSA market following a product recall in 2021 and strong underlying demand in the sector – even with growing attention on possible impact of obesity drugs – Morgans don't expect Fisher & Paykel to significantly affect the solid growth of leader in sleep-related respiratory disorders ResMed (ASX:RMD).
Lumos grows US Medicare coverage for FebriDx
Lumos Diagnostics (ASX:LDX) continues to grow its US Medicare coverage for FebriDx test, a rapid point-of-care (POC) diagnostic designed to differentiate between bacterial and non-bacterial acute respiratory infections.
Lumos this week announced FebriDx would be included in the medicare coverage for Medicare Administrative Contractor CGS Administrators, which is responsible for managing medicare payments in the US states of Kentucky and Ohio.
Coverage by CGS at US$41.38 per test per test will be backdated to May 1, 2025.
Lumos now has Medicare reimbursement from six of seven Medicare Administrative Contractors, representing more than 85% of total US Medicare payment coverage.
National Government Services remains the only Medicare Administrative Contractor to be added, which Lumos said it remained committed to securing.
Medicare comprises around 20-24% of the US payor mix and often sets a precedent for private payors. Lumos said achieving reimbursement coverage was a critical validation milestone on the path to meaningful adoption of FebriDx in the US.
"Getting Medicare coverage in the US is an important step forward for Lumos," Power said.
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