What To Know About Tropical Storm Erin—Expected To Become Major Hurricane
Erin is expected to form into a hurricane by Friday. (Photo by) Getty Images
The tropical storm, which formed in the eastern Atlantic on Monday and is now west of the Cabo Verde Islands, has 45 mph maximum sustained winds.
The storm is forecast to form into a hurricane by early Friday morning and a major hurricane by Saturday, when the National Hurricane Center projects it to be located northeast of Puerto Rico.
It is expected to be a Category 3 storm with 115 mph sustained winds at that time.
The track after that is largely unclear, with forecasters noting the spread in model guidance increases 'markedly' at the end of the five-day projection.
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Five, with Erin being the fifth. None have reached hurricane strength. However, Tropical Storm Chantal managed to directly hit the East Coast early last month, bringing flooding and tornadoes to the Carolinas, where at least six people died.
Hurricane Henriette formed in the Central Pacific Ocean on Sunday. The system is north of Hawaii and is expected to continue northward before weakening around Wednesday and Thursday. Key Background
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its hurricane season forecast last week, forecasting the number of named storms this season to reach between 13 and 18. Of those storms, five to nine could become hurricanes and two to five could be major hurricanes. NOAA predicts a 50% chance for an above-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 15% chance of a below-normal season. An average season has 14 named storms. Outside of Tropical Storm Chantal's deadly landfall in July, the U.S. has so far been spared of direct impacts this season. NOAA says warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean have contributed to its predictions for a busy hurricane season. Further Reading
Prediction remains on track for above-normal Atlantic hurricane season (NOAA)
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This comes after the storm, which was first dubbed Invest 97L, caused several deaths in the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. 6 The US Virgin Islands are accelerating their sandbag distribution because of Tropical Storm Erin. Mario Hoesel – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Tropical Storm Erin had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, and strengthening was set to begin later on Wednesday afternoon or on Wednesday night. It's expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical Storm Erin is located more than 1,300 miles to the east of the northern Leeward Islands and is moving off to the west at 17 mph. 6 Major strengthening is likely with Tropical Storm Erin. FOX Weather The NHC said that general motion was expected to continue into Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion starting on Thursday night and continuing into the weekend. On that track, the NHC said the center of Tropical Storm Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. 'Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin,' the NHC said. 6 Jack Beven, Senior Hurricane Specialist, tracks Tropical Storm Erin on August 13, 2025 at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. Getty Images Swells generated by Tropical Storm Erin are expected to begin impacting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. Those swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions at local beaches. At least 7 dead in Cabo Verde islands Before becoming Tropical Storm Erin, the system brought torrential rain and thunderstorms to the Cabo Verde, or Cape Verde, islands when it was Invest 97L. 6 Swells generated by Tropical Storm Erin are expected to begin impacting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. John – Local officials said at least seven people, including children, were killed. 'The Ministry of Education expresses its deepest sorrow for the tragic loss of seven lives, including four children, on the island of São Vincent,' the Ministry of Education said in a translated Facebook post. The Ministry went on to say 'in this time of mourning and dismay, the pain of the bereaved families is the pain of the entire nation.' 6 Lisa Bucci, Hurricane Specialist, works near screens showing Tropical Storm Erin as they continue to track its progress on August 13, 2025 at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. 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Is Erin coming to Tallahassee area or Florida? Tracking what may become a Cat. 3 hurricane
Tropical Storm Erin continues to move quickly to the west and is expected to begin strengthening today, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters are now encouraging residents in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and northern Leeward Islands to closely monitor Erin, which is expected to begin strengthening today. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Hurricane drama vs. data: Why Erin is a miniscule threat to Florida, U.S. east coast Erin is expected to become a hurricane late Thursday, Aug. 14 or early Friday, Aug. 15 and strengthen into a major hurricane within the next 96 hours. A major hurricane is one that's a Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. While a curve back out to sea is widely expected and forecast in models, the full impact Erin could have on Florida and the U.S. remains uncertain as of Wednesday morning but officials also encourage residents to monitor the storm. "There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week," the National Hurricane Center. As for the Gulf Coast of North Florida, the National Weather Service in Tallahassee said "it's too early to determine what, if any, impacts to the Tri-State region." "As the Hurricane Season peak approaches, ensure you're prepared for any threats," they wrote on X. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also weighed in: "Models for Hurricane Erin currently have it turning north and staying far away from Florida. We continue to monitor for any shifts." Forecasters reminded everyone that the forecast cone has an average error of 150 to 215 statute miles in the days 4 and 5 forecast. It's also important to remember that the cone represents where the center of the storm could be. The fifth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Erin formed earlier than the historical average of Aug. 22. The average date for the first hurricane is Aug. 11, and the first major hurricane typically does not occur until Sept. 1, according to AccuWeather. Tropical Storm Erin update, path Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Location: 1,400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph Movement: west at 20 mph Pressure: 1,004 mb Next advisory: 11 a.m. ET When will Tropical Storm Erin become a hurricane? The National Hurricane Center predicted Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday Aug. 14 or early Friday. Erin is expected to continue strengthening, becoming a major hurricane with winds estimated at 115 mph by early Sunday morning. Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin. Where is the storm going? Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. ➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin Is there a hurricane coming to Florida? No tropical storm — or hurricane — watches or warnings have been issued for Florida or the United States, and it's too early to tell whether Erin will impact the U.S., according to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and Florida Division of Emergency Management. "There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week," the Hurricane Center said. How strong is Tropical Storm Erin and where could it go? See the scenarios The National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Erin is expected to begin strengthening today, Aug. 13 and become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday and a Category 3 hurricane by Sunday, Aug. 17 as it moves out of an area with dry area and "marginal" sea surface temperatures. Erin is expected to continue moving west across the Atlantic but is expected to turn to the west-northwest as it encounters a weakness in a "ridge" to its north. Exactly where that turn takes place remains uncertain. "There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week," the National Hurricane Center said. "Users are reminded that NHC track forecasts have an average error of 150-215 statute miles at days four and five, and future adjustments to the forecast are still possible." "At the very least, building seas will pose threats for small craft and larger ocean-going vessels over the western Atlantic. Increasing surf and rip currents will pose dangers for swimmers over much of the U.S. Atlantic coast and Bermuda," AccuWeather forecasters said. "The amount of wind and rain that occurs over the northeastern Caribbean islands and the Bahamas will depend on Erin's size, intensity and its ability to pull moisture northward from the Caribbean." "Erin will be guided along by the northeast trade winds initially and then the clockwise circulation around the massive Bermuda High over the central Atlantic," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "It is the shape of that oceanic high, as well as the approach of a cool front and dip in the jet stream near the Atlantic Coast, that will determine the exact track of the projected major hurricane as it approaches the Atlantic Coast of the United States next week." The scenarios, according to AccuWeather are: "If the Bermuda High remains fairly round or yields to the approaching cool front and jet stream dip, Erin is likely to turn to the north before reaching the U.S. "If the Bermuda High extends well to the west, it could block the potential major hurricane's northward path. The result would be a potential track very close to or onshore in the U.S., probably somewhere from the Carolinas north." Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Erin Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week. Erin is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday and a major hurricane by Sunday morning. NHC track forecasts have an average error of 120-180 nautical miles (150-215 statute miles) at days four and five, and future adjustments to the forecast are still possible. Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Erin get? At 5 a.m.: 45 mph 12 hours: 50 mph 24 hours: 60 mph 36 hours: 65 mph 48 hours: 75 mph 60 hours: 85 mph 72 hours: 100 mph 96 hours: 115 mph 120 hours: 115 mph Will Tropical Storm Erin impact Florida? What other areas could be affected? It's still early to tell yet what impacts Tropical Storm Erin could have on Florida or the United States, although forecasters said rough surf and dangerous rip currents are possible along the east coast as Erin approaches. Officials warn residents should be prepared and closely monitor the storm that's expected to become a major hurricane by Sunday. "There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts, if any, might occur in ... the east coast of the United States ... next week," the National Hurricane Center said at 5 a.m. Aug. 13. ➤ Excessive rainfall forecast Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center. "These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions." Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past? Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text What's next? We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Is Erin coming to Tallahassee, Florida area? Cat. 3 hurricane forecast
