Dollar slips to a two week low as investors eye Fed cut
The dollar index, measuring the currency against a basket of peers, dipped to 97.76, its lowest since July 28, extending its 0.5% fall on Tuesday.
U.S. consumer prices increased marginally in July, data showed on Tuesday, in line with forecasts and as the pass-through from Trump's sweeping tariffs to goods prices has so far been limited.
Investors eyeing imminent Fed cuts cheered the data and moved to price in a 98% chance the central bank would ease rates next month, according to LSEG data.
"U.S. CPI release turned out to be a dollar-negative event," said Francesco Pesole, strategist at ING. "The September Fed cut remains firmly priced in."
He added that core inflation accelerating is far from ideal, but not alarming enough to overshadow the deterioration in the jobs market.
Also eroding investor confidence in the dollar were Trump's fresh attempts to undermine Fed independence, after White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday that the U.S. president was considering a lawsuit against Fed Chair Jerome Powell in relation to his management of renovations at the central bank's Washington headquarters.
Trump has been at loggerheads with Powell and has repeatedly lambasted the Fed chair for not easing rates sooner.
The president also hit out at Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, saying the bank had been wrong to predict U.S. tariffs would hurt the economy. Trump questioned whether Solomon should lead the Wall Street institution.
Elsewhere, the dollar's weakness supported the euro and sterling. The single currency was last up 0.3% to $1.1709, briefly hitting its highest since July 28. Similarly, the British currency rose 0.4% to $1.3562, its highest since July 24.
Britain's jobs market weakened again though wage growth stayed strong, according to data on Tuesday, underscoring why the Bank of England is so cautious about cutting interest rates.
The Australian dollar was up 0.35% to $0.6552, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.5% to $0.5986.
The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday cut interest rates as expected, and signalled further policy easing might be needed to meet its inflation and employment goals as the economy lost some momentum.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
15 minutes ago
- Yahoo
FTSE 100 LIVE: Markets muted as Zelensky to meet Starmer before Trump-Putin summit
The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) fell and European stocks moved cautiously higher on Thursday morning, gaining ground amid rising hopes of a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. UK prime minister Keir Starmer said this week there is a "viable chance" of an end to the conflict ahead of US president Donald Trump's meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Trump warned of "very severe consequences" if Putin does not agree to end the war in Ukraine. Trump spoke with European leaders on Wednesday. Starmer said that "any ceasefire would have to be lasting and to be lasting it would need security guarantees[...] That is why we set up this coalition of the willing." Markets in London were also reacting to the latest UK GDP figures, which showed that growth slowed in the second quarter — the latest data point evidencing the shaky ground the UK economy is standing on heading into the autumn budget. London stocks fell about 0.3% at the opening bell. Commodities stocks such as Rio Tinto (RIO.L) and Shell (SHEL.L) were among the top fallers in the index. The DAX (^GDAXI) in Germany ticked up 0.1% Paris's CAC 40 (^FCHI) rose 0.2% The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) gained around 0.1% ahead of the latest EU GDP reading. Admiral stock pops AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould, said: Bitcoin at record highs Yahoo Finance UK's Brian McGleenon writes: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged to a new all-time high above $123,500 (£90,984) in early Thursday trading, extending a week-long rally that has lifted the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin briefly traded at $123,512 before easing back to around $121,700. The world's biggest cryptocurrency is now up more than 6% over the past week, breaking through its previous July peak of just over $120,000. 'Bitcoin's latest rally reflects the blurring lines between crypto and traditional assets, happening faster than institutional adoption timelines predicted,' VOOI CEO and co-founder Will K said. 'While ETFs brought institutions into bitcoin, retail traders are returning to evolved decentralised platforms that have shed their clunky origins.' Read more on Yahoo Finance UK UK industrial production figures outstrip expectations Here are the top line figures: Drop in rental listings spells price rises: RICS Yahoo Finance UK's Pedro Goncalves writes: The supply of new rental properties in the UK has fallen at its fastest rate in five years, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). The latest survey reveals that 31% of surveyors saw a decline in new instructions from landlords, marking the weakest reading since April 2020. This sharp drop reflects a "firmly negative trend" in the number of rental properties coming onto the market. Despite this downturn in supply, tenant demand remained stable over the three months leading up to July. With fewer properties becoming available, rental prices are expected to continue rising. A net balance of 25% of survey participants anticipate higher rents in the coming months. In the sales market, new buyer inquiries also showed signs of weakening in July. A net balance of 6% of property professionals reported a decline in fresh inquiries from buyers, suggesting a softening in demand compared to June, when a net balance of 4% had observed an uptick. Read more on Yahoo Finance UK Investors bet on a slow in pace of ECB rate cuts: Reuters Reuters has a take on the cooling bets for further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Here's what they said: Dow within striking distance of all-time highs as US rate cut priced in US stock futures slightly pared gains seen on Wednesday. Over the past few sessions there has been a bullish sentiment following the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Though the data showed inflation had ticked up, it increased less than expected. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also on Wednesday called on the Fed to lower rates by 150 to 175 basis points. "I think we could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50 basis point rate cut in September," he told Bloomberg. The result has been a surge in bets that the Fed would cut interest rates at its September policy meeting, especially in light of recent warning signs the labor market is weakening. By Wednesday afternoon, traders had fully priced in a September cut, according to the CME Group, with bets also rising on a potential "jumbo" cut of 50 basis points. Weaker growth bad sign for consumers, say analysts Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at Bestinvest by Evelyn Partners, said: 'More to do', says Reeves Chancellor Rachel Reeves commented on the GDP figures: UK economic growth slows between April and June Pedro Goncalves was up bright and early covering UK GDP. Here's what he found: The UK economy's growth slowed between April and June, according to official figures, as US president Donald Trump's tariffs hit and businesses grappled with higher costs. Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed growth in gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to 0.3% in the three months to the end of June, down from a rate of 0.7% in the first quarter. Economists polled by Reuters, as well as the Bank of England, had forecast 0.1% growth in GDP for the April-June period. Growth in the latest quarter was driven by increases of 0.4% in services and 1.2% in construction, while the production sector fell by 0.3% ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: 'Growth slowed in the second quarter after a strong start to the year. The economy was weak across April and May, with some activity having been brought forward to February and March ahead of stamp duty and tariff changes, but then recovered strongly in June. Read more on Yahoo Finance UK Good morning! Hello again. Lucy Harley-McKeown here, ready for another day of rolling markets coverage for European hours. Two important things we'll be covering off today related to the UK economy: The latest GDP reading The RICS house price index Elsewhere, economic twitchers will be watching the UK industrial, manufacturing and construction output and EU GDP. There are first-half results rolling in from: Aviva (AV.L), Admiral (ADM.L), Antofagasta (ANTO.L) and Savills (SVS.L) In the US, Birkenstock (BIRK) is set to report results. Let's get to stock pops AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould, said: AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould, said: Bitcoin at record highs Yahoo Finance UK's Brian McGleenon writes: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged to a new all-time high above $123,500 (£90,984) in early Thursday trading, extending a week-long rally that has lifted the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin briefly traded at $123,512 before easing back to around $121,700. The world's biggest cryptocurrency is now up more than 6% over the past week, breaking through its previous July peak of just over $120,000. 'Bitcoin's latest rally reflects the blurring lines between crypto and traditional assets, happening faster than institutional adoption timelines predicted,' VOOI CEO and co-founder Will K said. 'While ETFs brought institutions into bitcoin, retail traders are returning to evolved decentralised platforms that have shed their clunky origins.' Read more on Yahoo Finance UK Yahoo Finance UK's Brian McGleenon writes: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged to a new all-time high above $123,500 (£90,984) in early Thursday trading, extending a week-long rally that has lifted the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin briefly traded at $123,512 before easing back to around $121,700. The world's biggest cryptocurrency is now up more than 6% over the past week, breaking through its previous July peak of just over $120,000. 'Bitcoin's latest rally reflects the blurring lines between crypto and traditional assets, happening faster than institutional adoption timelines predicted,' VOOI CEO and co-founder Will K said. 'While ETFs brought institutions into bitcoin, retail traders are returning to evolved decentralised platforms that have shed their clunky origins.' Read more on Yahoo Finance UK UK industrial production figures outstrip expectations Here are the top line figures: Here are the top line figures: Drop in rental listings spells price rises: RICS Yahoo Finance UK's Pedro Goncalves writes: The supply of new rental properties in the UK has fallen at its fastest rate in five years, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). The latest survey reveals that 31% of surveyors saw a decline in new instructions from landlords, marking the weakest reading since April 2020. This sharp drop reflects a "firmly negative trend" in the number of rental properties coming onto the market. Despite this downturn in supply, tenant demand remained stable over the three months leading up to July. With fewer properties becoming available, rental prices are expected to continue rising. A net balance of 25% of survey participants anticipate higher rents in the coming months. In the sales market, new buyer inquiries also showed signs of weakening in July. A net balance of 6% of property professionals reported a decline in fresh inquiries from buyers, suggesting a softening in demand compared to June, when a net balance of 4% had observed an uptick. Read more on Yahoo Finance UK Yahoo Finance UK's Pedro Goncalves writes: The supply of new rental properties in the UK has fallen at its fastest rate in five years, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). The latest survey reveals that 31% of surveyors saw a decline in new instructions from landlords, marking the weakest reading since April 2020. This sharp drop reflects a "firmly negative trend" in the number of rental properties coming onto the market. Despite this downturn in supply, tenant demand remained stable over the three months leading up to July. With fewer properties becoming available, rental prices are expected to continue rising. A net balance of 25% of survey participants anticipate higher rents in the coming months. In the sales market, new buyer inquiries also showed signs of weakening in July. A net balance of 6% of property professionals reported a decline in fresh inquiries from buyers, suggesting a softening in demand compared to June, when a net balance of 4% had observed an uptick. Read more on Yahoo Finance UK Investors bet on a slow in pace of ECB rate cuts: Reuters Reuters has a take on the cooling bets for further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Here's what they said: Reuters has a take on the cooling bets for further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Here's what they said: Dow within striking distance of all-time highs as US rate cut priced in US stock futures slightly pared gains seen on Wednesday. Over the past few sessions there has been a bullish sentiment following the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Though the data showed inflation had ticked up, it increased less than expected. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also on Wednesday called on the Fed to lower rates by 150 to 175 basis points. "I think we could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50 basis point rate cut in September," he told Bloomberg. The result has been a surge in bets that the Fed would cut interest rates at its September policy meeting, especially in light of recent warning signs the labor market is weakening. By Wednesday afternoon, traders had fully priced in a September cut, according to the CME Group, with bets also rising on a potential "jumbo" cut of 50 basis points. US stock futures slightly pared gains seen on Wednesday. Over the past few sessions there has been a bullish sentiment following the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Though the data showed inflation had ticked up, it increased less than expected. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also on Wednesday called on the Fed to lower rates by 150 to 175 basis points. "I think we could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50 basis point rate cut in September," he told Bloomberg. The result has been a surge in bets that the Fed would cut interest rates at its September policy meeting, especially in light of recent warning signs the labor market is weakening. By Wednesday afternoon, traders had fully priced in a September cut, according to the CME Group, with bets also rising on a potential "jumbo" cut of 50 basis points. Weaker growth bad sign for consumers, say analysts Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at Bestinvest by Evelyn Partners, said: Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at Bestinvest by Evelyn Partners, said: 'More to do', says Reeves Chancellor Rachel Reeves commented on the GDP figures: Chancellor Rachel Reeves commented on the GDP figures: UK economic growth slows between April and June Pedro Goncalves was up bright and early covering UK GDP. Here's what he found: The UK economy's growth slowed between April and June, according to official figures, as US president Donald Trump's tariffs hit and businesses grappled with higher costs. Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed growth in gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to 0.3% in the three months to the end of June, down from a rate of 0.7% in the first quarter. Economists polled by Reuters, as well as the Bank of England, had forecast 0.1% growth in GDP for the April-June period. Growth in the latest quarter was driven by increases of 0.4% in services and 1.2% in construction, while the production sector fell by 0.3% ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: 'Growth slowed in the second quarter after a strong start to the year. The economy was weak across April and May, with some activity having been brought forward to February and March ahead of stamp duty and tariff changes, but then recovered strongly in June. Read more on Yahoo Finance UK Pedro Goncalves was up bright and early covering UK GDP. Here's what he found: The UK economy's growth slowed between April and June, according to official figures, as US president Donald Trump's tariffs hit and businesses grappled with higher costs. Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed growth in gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to 0.3% in the three months to the end of June, down from a rate of 0.7% in the first quarter. Economists polled by Reuters, as well as the Bank of England, had forecast 0.1% growth in GDP for the April-June period. Growth in the latest quarter was driven by increases of 0.4% in services and 1.2% in construction, while the production sector fell by 0.3% ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: 'Growth slowed in the second quarter after a strong start to the year. The economy was weak across April and May, with some activity having been brought forward to February and March ahead of stamp duty and tariff changes, but then recovered strongly in June. Read more on Yahoo Finance UK Good morning! Hello again. Lucy Harley-McKeown here, ready for another day of rolling markets coverage for European hours. Two important things we'll be covering off today related to the UK economy: The latest GDP reading The RICS house price index Elsewhere, economic twitchers will be watching the UK industrial, manufacturing and construction output and EU GDP. There are first-half results rolling in from: Aviva (AV.L), Admiral (ADM.L), Antofagasta (ANTO.L) and Savills (SVS.L) In the US, Birkenstock (BIRK) is set to report results. Let's get to it. Hello again. Lucy Harley-McKeown here, ready for another day of rolling markets coverage for European hours. Two important things we'll be covering off today related to the UK economy: The latest GDP reading The RICS house price index Elsewhere, economic twitchers will be watching the UK industrial, manufacturing and construction output and EU GDP. There are first-half results rolling in from: Aviva (AV.L), Admiral (ADM.L), Antofagasta (ANTO.L) and Savills (SVS.L) In the US, Birkenstock (BIRK) is set to report results. Let's get to it. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Newsweek
17 minutes ago
- Newsweek
What Falling Mortgage Rates Mean for American Homebuyers
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Mortgage rates are falling despite the Federal Reserve's reluctance to introduce new cuts over the past eight months, giving American homebuyers more purchasing power at a time when the market is slowly shifting in their favor. Last week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage—the most popular home loan in the nation—dropped to its lowest level since April. As of August 7, according to Freddie Mac, it was at 6.63 percent, down from 6.72 percent a week earlier but still up 0.16 percentage points from a year earlier. While mortgage rates remain historically high, especially compared to the pandemic lows of below 3 percent, for homebuyers waiting on the sidelines for a good time to enter the market, any movement away from the 7 percent mark is a positive shift. Why Have Mortgage Rates Made a Dip? "Although the Fed has not yet cut its policy rate, mortgage rates and other long-term rates move in anticipation of what's ahead for the economy and the likely policy environment," chief economist Danielle Hale told Newsweek. In this case, the July jobs report has likely determined the recent dip in mortgage rates. The report showed that U.S. employers added 73,000 jobs last month, fewer than the 109,000 forecasters had expected, and unemployment rose from 4.1 percent in June to 4.2 percent. Hiring figures for May and June were also revised down, with a combined total of 258,000 fewer jobs over the past three months than previously estimated. In an aerial view, homes are seen under construction at a new housing development on August 08, 2025, in Henderson, Nevada. In an aerial view, homes are seen under construction at a new housing development on August 08, 2025, in Henderson, Nevada."The fact that the July employment report showed weaker job growth, downward revisions to prior job growth estimates, and an uptick in the unemployment rate has reset expectations among investors," Hale said. "The Fed is now widely expected to cut its policy rate at its meeting in mid-September. This combined with a softer economic outlook has helped nudge longer-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, lower." The weaker-than-expected jobs report has also caused Treasury yields to tumble last week, as concerns over the future of the U.S. economy were revamped among investors, who are now betting that the central bank will cut interest rates next month. "Mortgage rates react to the bond market," Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage, told Newsweek. "Bonds react to current economic data, and the latest data has been weaker than expected, especially as it relates to the employment sector. All the weaker data and mild inflation reports that the Fed will react to in September are moving bond yields and mortgage rates today." What Does This Mean for the US Housing Market? There is no doubt among experts that lower mortgage rates are good news for American homebuyers. "Mortgage rates have dropped by .25 to .375 percent over the past 10 days. This means more affordability in the home that they are looking to purchase," Cohn said. But experts are also skeptical of the significance of this improvement. "This drop now makes homebuying more affordable of course, but it's too soon to tell if the improvements have an impact," Phil Crescenzo Jr., vice president of Southeast Division at Nation One Mortgage Corporation, told Newsweek. "We saw fairly consistent mortgage rates in late spring and summer, so it didn't take a huge move to be better than recent trends," Hale said. "It's also fair to describe today's mortgage rates as still relatively high." "Put simply, this is a good break for current home shoppers who are already in the market, and it may be enough of a break to spur others to restart their home searches, especially as we approach a seasonably more favorable time of year for buyers," Hale said. "Real improvement in home affordability will need rates to drop even further. For borrowers' sake, let's hope that the data continues to be weaker and rates keep dropping," Cohn said. Is This a Good Time To Buy a Home? It is as good a time as any to buy a home in the U.S.—meaning that buyers are still facing significant challenges even as mortgage rates dip slightly. "I expect mortgage rates to eventually fall further, but this is not guaranteed, and the timing is also challenging to predict," Hale said. "Trying to decide whether it's a good time to buy is about more than just mortgage rates. Buyers should think about what they want and need from a home, and consider their options." Those who are on the fence between renting and owning, Hale said, are likely to find that the monthly costs are still tipped pretty heavily in favor of renting in many markets, "but even in this kind of environment, home ownership can be a good choice, especially for those planning to be in their next home for a longer amount of time." Waiting too long could be risky, however, especially if mortgage rates continue falling. "The interest rate market is still unpredictable and waiting too long risks many buyers coming into the market, affecting supply and increasing home prices," Crescenzo said. Will Rates Continue Falling This Year? Cohn believes that the August jobs report will be a key factor in the Fed's decision at its September meeting. "If the report is anything like the July report, the Fed will cut rates in September," she said. "The only curveball will be the impact that the new tariffs have on the rate of inflation. If inflation increases, it may keep the Fed and rates in a holding pattern." Hale said that whether the Fed will cut rates during its meeting in mid-September will ultimately depend on the next few data readings, though she believes "the elements for a Fed rate cut in September are falling into place." A cut would help mortgage rates fall, but longer-term rates often move before the Fed does, Hale said, and the monetary policy outlook is just one factor investors are considering. "For this reason, mortgage rates and the Fed's rate don't always move in tandem," she said. "For example, from the time that the Fed first cut rates in September 2024 until early January, mortgage rates actually increased by almost the same amount that the Fed cut--a percentage point. In this instance, I expect that mortgage rates are likely to move lower at least until the Fed's first cut, which I expect in September."
Business Insider
18 minutes ago
- Business Insider
Government data is now in question. Here's where macro investors are turning to fill the gaps.
No savvy investor makes a decision off a single data point, but there are some numbers that carry more weight than others. For many macro investors, the North Star has long been the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unit within the Department of Labor that measures, among other things, inflation, unemployment rates, and wage growth. Those in charge of the BLS have long been non-partisan economists, but President Donald Trump's firing of Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on August 1 and his top pick for her replacement, chief economist at the right-leaning Heritage Foundation, EJ Antoni, have many concerned with the validity of future government data, especially as Antoni floated pausing monthly jobs reports. It's concerning for macro traders who rely on this data to make their bets, but there are non-governmental data sources that many already use. While helpful, these alternative databases can't replicate the widespread foundation BLS numbers provided for decades, where all market participants worked for the same set of basic facts about the state of the world's biggest economy. Still, traders are ramping up their use of this data in light of Trump's moves. "What's going to be tricky here is how to judge numbers coming out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics moving forward," said Andreas Steno Larsen, onetime macro investor and researcher, on his weekly podcast. He compared the firing to something that would happen "in Latin America" and predicted that investors would "look for alternative sources" to get a second opinion on the official data. Four macro investors pointed to the well-known ADP jobs report, which comes out monthly and tracks payroll from private employers, and MIT's Billion Prices Project as ways to track employment and inflation, respectively, in the US. The investors declined to be named because their firms don't authorize them to speak publicly. Some investors tap datasets that constantly scrape e-commerce prices, such as PriceStats, and track how different products rise and fall over time. This is a useful tool to understand Trump's tariff policies' impact, given the volume of online goods that US consumers buy from overseas. Payroll and scheduling company Homebase tracks more than 150,000 small businesses and produces monthly employment reports. LinkUp has tracked online job postings since 2007. Numerator has become a key source for in-person consumer data at places such as restaurants and home improvement stores. "Given the recent BLS conversations, we've recently seen demand for our data increase," Homebase CEO John Waldmann said in a statement. Not a replacement These alternative data sources are just that — alternative. They were used to get a sneak peek or a deeper look at inflation or unemployment figures that the government would release, not replace them entirely. They also sometimes vary. For example, ADP's payroll figures often diverge from the BLS's monthly jobs report, and MIT's Billion Prices Project can capture inflation trends sooner than the official CPI but is less comprehensive. "We don't see them replacing economic statistics altogether in the near future," said Julie Meigh, the head of ESG & macro research at alt-data platform Neudata, about non-traditional datasets. Even if BLS data becomes less trustworthy, the different macro investors who spoke with Business Insider said they'll still need to use it in some fashion unless there's a structural change in financial products. For example, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, change when the Consumer Price Index from the government is announced. For those who have exposure to these types of assets, ignoring the BLS is not possible even if the data becomes untrustworthy. As one trader at one of the world's biggest macro hedge funds said, he was surprised markets weren't more spooked by Trump's firing. Equity markets were near record highs, and bond yields stayed mostly steady. "I think it's clear that institutions are not as strong as many had thought," this individual said.
