
Aditya Birla Real Estate shares down 32% from peak. Can the stock reclaim Rs 2,400 post Q1 results?
Live Events
Q4 loss weighs, but long-term growth bets build
Brokerage bullish on project pipeline, long-term rerating
Stock performance and near-term watchpoints
(You can now subscribe to our
(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel
Shares of Aditya Birla Real Estate ABREL ), down 32% from their October 2024 peak, head into a closely watched earnings announcement on Wednesday that could set the tone for the stock's next move. With technical signals mixed and management preparing to unveil both June-quarter results and a funding plan tied to its ongoing business transformation, investors are eyeing whether the stock can regain momentum and move back toward the Rs 2,400 mark.In a regulatory filing, ABREL announced that its Board will meet on July 23, 2025 to consider the unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. The agenda also includes a proposal to raise funds via term loans or debt securities to refinance borrowings taken for the capex of its Century Pulp and Paper (CPP) division.As per the filing, this refinancing move comes 'in view of the proposed sale of CPP division of the Company to ITC Limited.' The Rs 3,498 crore divestment, approved in March this year, is seen as a pivotal move to unlock capital and streamline focus on the real estate business.Kunal V Parar, Vice President of Technical Research and Algo at Choice Broking, flagged a potential bullish reversal. 'On the daily chart, the stock has formed a Bullish Harami candlestick pattern — a classic bullish reversal signal — indicating the potential for an upward move.''The stock is currently trading above its 100-Day Moving Average, reinforcing the prevailing positive short-to-medium-term trend. On the weekly timeframe as well, it remains above the 100-Week Moving Average, highlighting continued strength in the long-term trend,' said Parar.Parar also highlighted a key momentum shift: 'The daily RSI is hovering near the 35 level and has recently taken support around the crucial 30 mark, indicating a possible shift in momentum towards the upside.''If the stock sustains above the Rs 2,181 level, we anticipate a move towards the Rs 2,245–2,345 zone in the near term. Traders are advised to maintain a strict stop loss at Rs 2,100 to manage risk effectively,' he said.In contrast, Kunal Kamble, Senior Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza, struck a cautious tone. 'The stock is forming a Lower High–Lower Low structure, indicating that bears are currently in control. Price action has slipped below key SMAs, which confirms a shift in trend to the downside.'Kamble sees immediate support at Rs 2,066 and resistance at Rs 2,300, with a higher hurdle at Rs 2,450. 'It is advisable to wait at the current level before initiating any fresh positions. The technical setup remains weak, and no immediate rebound is expected in the near term,' he said. 'The stock is likely to remain range-bound in the near term, with no significant momentum expected. It is anticipated to trade between Rs 1,800 and Rs 2,440 until a decisive breakout occurs on either side.'ABREL reported a consolidated net loss of Rs 126.99 crore for the March quarter, compared to a net profit of Rs 143.67 crore a year earlier. Revenue fell sharply by 51.5%, dragging the full-year loss to Rs 148.74 crore.Khushi Mistry, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said, 'The company posted a consolidated net loss of approximately Rs 127 crore for Q4 FY25, primarily due to a sharp 51.5% revenue decline and operational pressures, resulting in a full-year net loss of roughly Rs 148.7 crore. The market reacted swiftly and negatively, with the stock coming under pressure after results.'However, Mistry sees the paper division divestment as a turning point. 'ABREL has executed the sale of its pulp and paper business, a move expected to be completed by Q2 FY26. This is strategic — management aims to redeploy capital toward its real estate business, focus on core operations, and strengthen the balance sheet.''While weak near-term earnings have dragged sentiment, the divestment and strong project pipeline do provide a counterweight. If execution continues, these factors could drive a turnaround in earnings and sentiment as early as late FY26,' Mistry said.Still, risks remain. 'ABREL's FY25 loss is notable — the swing from profit to a Rs 148.7 crore net loss is a concern for value-focused investors. The decline in operating profit margins (with OPM dropping to just 1% in Mar 2025) and low ROE highlight ongoing efficiency challenges,' she said. 'In the very short term, valuation pressure could persist if execution stumbles or sentiment in the broader real estate sector weakens.'Brokerage Emkay Global initiated coverage on ABREL in June with a 'buy' rating and a price target of Rs 3,300. It cited strong booking momentum, robust financials, and a launch pipeline exceeding Rs 45,000 crore. Emkay expects pre-sales to grow at a 25% CAGR through FY27, reaching Rs 12,600 crore, with collections rising 32% to Rs 4,700 crore.The brokerage sees the pulp and paper divestment as a key liquidity booster, projecting a decline in net debt to Rs 2,000 crore by FY27 even with ongoing project additions.ABREL shares are down 15.6% year-to-date and 12% over the past month, underperforming broader market indices. The stock is currently 30% above its February low of Rs 1,638 but still far below its 52-week high of Rs 3,141.95 hit in October 2024.With the RSI at 36.8 and MACD still in bearish territory at -42.1, near-term momentum remains muted. The next directional trigger will likely emerge from Wednesday's board meeting, with investors watching closely for earnings recovery signals and clarity on the company's post-divestment capital strategy.Whether that's enough to reclaim Rs 2,400 remains to be seen.Also read | IREDA shares down 28% in 2025. Can the stock rebound past Rs 185 or is it time to sell? (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Time of India
24 minutes ago
- Time of India
Meghalaya CM Sangma inaugurates NE's biggest bottling plant in Mendipathar
Meghalaya marked a milestone with the opening of a PepsiCo bottling plant. Conrad K Sangma inaugurated the Rs 340-crore facility in Mendipathar. The project promises economic growth and employment opportunities. It fulfills a long-held vision for industrial development in the Garo Hills. Another beverage plant is also nearing completion in the Tikrikilla-Bajengdoba region. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad K Sangma on Wednesday inaugurated a Rs 340-crore PepsiCo bottling plant at Medipathar town in North Garo Hills District , officials said. Mendipathar is the only town in the state having a railway the project a "blessing" for the state, Sangma said, "This is a symbol of the economic growth that Meghalaya is on track to achieve. Nobody would have ever imagined that the largest bottling plant in the NE would be right here in Mendipathar."He said the project would raise aspirations among the youth and stimulate ancillary industries."We can anticipate that different avenues will come up in the region," he across 37 acres in the Mendipathar Industrial Area, the bottling unit is expected to generate direct and indirect employment for hundreds of people in the the long-delayed promise of industrial development in Garo Hills, the CM said the Mendipathar industrial area was conceptualised in the 1990s, but saw no investment for over 30 years."There was hope and expectation, which never got fulfilled," he said, paying tribute to the vision of his late father and former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma."Today is a day of hope and fulfilment of that vision he had for Mendipathar and Meghalaya in general," Sangma said, while thanking local Nokmas and residents for donating land for the industrial area decades said the plant would also lead to economic growth in Mendipathar through increased demand for housing, retail and other further announced that another beverage plant is being set up in the Tikrikilla-Bajengdoba region, with 90% of construction work already Speaker Timothy D Shira, Power Minister A T Mondal, PHE Minister Marcuise Marak, MIDC Chairman James K Sangma and other MLAs were present at the inaugural CM also thanked Varun Beverages Chairman Ravikant Jaipuria and Varun Jaipuria for their commitment."Ravikant ji is a visionary. Though the target was nine months, the project was completed in 11 months," he said, lauding the company's time-bound execution.


Time of India
24 minutes ago
- Time of India
PM Kisan 20th instalment date confirmed: PM Modi will send it your bank account on August 2, 2025
Good news for PM Kisan beneficiaries! The 20th installment of the PM-Kisan scheme, amounting to Rs 20,500 crore, will be released on August 2, 2025. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will disburse the funds to 9.7 crore farmers during his visit to Varanasi. Eligible farmers must complete their eKYC to receive the benefit. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads PM Kisan Yojana Scheme: When 20th instalment of Rs 2000 will be credited? What is PM Kisan? Only these farmers are eligible to get PM Kisan 20th instalment Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Eligibility for PM-Kisan scheme Modes of eKYC for PM Kisan How farmers can check their PM Kisan beneficiary status There is a good news for PM Kisan beneficiaries. The next installment of the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-Kisan) scheme will be released next month i.e., in August 2025. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will disburse funds during his visit in Varanasi. According to PIB release, PM Modi will visit his constituency Varanasi where he will disburse the next instalment of PM Kisan Samman the launch of the scheme in 2019, Rs 3.69 lakh crore has been transferred to farmers' accounts through 19 installments. In the 20th installment, Rs 20,500 crore will be transferred to 9.7 crore Minister Narendra Modi will release the 20th instalment of PM-Kisan Samman Niddhi for eligible beneficiaries on August 2, 2025 during his visit to Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-Kisan) scheme offers financial support of Rs.6,000 per year to eligible farmers in three equal installments of Rs.2,000. Each instalment is credited directly to the beneficiary account once in every four farmers should note that completing eKYC is compulsory to receive the 20th instalment. Without completing the eKYC they will not receive the next can do it online by visiting and selecting the 'e-KYC' option. They must enter their Aadhaar number, validate it through an OTP, and submit the receive the instalment under the PM-Kisan scheme, a farmer must meet certain eligibility criteria. The applicant must be an Indian citizen and own cultivable land with valid land records. Additionally, the farmer must link their Aadhaar number to their bank account and complete eKYC verification to ensure timely disbursal of the benefit. Farmers who are income tax payers, pensioners, or employed in government/public sector jobs are not eligible for the are following three modes of eKYC available to the farmers of the PM Kisan scheme (i) OTP-based e-KYC (available on PM-Kisan Portal and Mobile App).(ii) Biometric based e-KYC (available at Common Service Centres (CSCs) and State Seva Kendra (SSKs))(iii) Face authentication-based e-KYC (available on PM Kisan Mobile app which is used by millions of farmers).Step 1: Visit the official PM Kisan 2: Access the Beneficiary Status 3: Click on "Beneficiary Status"Step 4: Enter your Aadhaar Number or Account 5: Click on "Get Data"Step 6: View Beneficiary 7: Check for Payment beneficiary status will be shown on the screen when the system processes


Hans India
24 minutes ago
- Hans India
PM Modi to release 20th installment of PM-KISAN from Varanasi on August 2
New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will release the 20th installment of the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) scheme on August 2 from Varanasi, marking another significant step in the government's direct benefit transfer initiative for farmers. The PM-KISAN scheme is a central sector scheme launched in February 2019 by Prime Minister Modi to supplement the financial needs of land-holding farmers. Under this scheme, the financial benefit of Rs 6,000 per year in three equal instalments is transferred into the bank accounts of farmers' families across the country through the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) mode. The PM-KISAN scheme is one of the largest DBT schemes in the world. On Wednesday, a high-level meeting to finalise preparations for the nationwide event was held in Delhi, chaired by Union Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Chouhan described the PM-KISAN scheme as a "historic success", highlighting its role in directly supporting farmers' incomes. He announced that the distribution of the 20th instalment would be conducted as a nationwide campaign, with events organised across all states. These gatherings will witness participation from lakhs of farmers, along with Chief Ministers, Union Ministers, MPs, MLAs, and other public representatives. The meeting also included a virtual session with 731 Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs), over 100 institutes of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), and Vice Chancellors and officials from agricultural universities across India to coordinate efforts ahead of the Varanasi event. "This is not just a financial transaction but a mission to empower our farmers and raise awareness," Chouhan said. He urged that the programme be organised with enthusiasm and wide participation, ensuring it reaches farmers at the grassroots level. The upcoming 20th instalment, amounting to approximately Rs 20,500 crore, will benefit around 9.7 crore farmers nationwide. To ensure maximum participation and outreach, Minister Chouhan directed officials to engage rural networks, including Krishi Sakhis, Drone Didis, Bank Sakhis, Pashu Sakhis, Insurance Sakhis, and Gram Panchayat Sarpanches, to spread awareness about the event and mobilise local communities. "I appeal to all farmer brothers and sisters to actively join these programmes on August 2 and make this a festival of gratitude and empowerment," he added. Also present at the meeting were Union Agriculture Secretary Devesh Chaturvedi, ICAR Director General Dr Mangi Lal Jat, and other senior officials, who discussed logistical details and promotional strategies to ensure the programme's success. Under PM-KISAN, the government provides Rs 6,000 annually to eligible farmers, transferred in three equal instalments of Rs 2,000 each. Since its inception in 2019, the scheme has disbursed over Rs 3.69 lakh crore across 19 instalments, directly into farmers' bank accounts. On February 24, Prime Minister Modi had released the 19th instalment of the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) scheme in Bihar's Bhagalpur. During the event, over 9.8 crore farmers, including 2.41 crore female farmers, across the country benefited, receiving direct financial assistance exceeding Rs 22,000 crore through DBT without involvement of any middlemen.