Up 11pc: Big bank's surprise forecast for Aussie home prices
ANZ Research now expects capital city prices to rise 5 per cent by the end of this year and a further 5.8 per cent — culminating in a near 11 per cent jump in by the end of 2026.
ANZ economist Madeline Dunk said momentum had been building since the Reserve Bank cut interest rates in February, with capital city home prices growing at an annualised rate of 7.4 per cent over the past three months.
RELATED: Named: Every bank that's slashed rates to under 5pc
The bank expected the RBA to cut rates by another 25 basis in August, and predicts another 0.25 per cent decrease in November, which should support prices further — particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.
The research found Australia has a higher share of households on variable rate mortgages relative to other economies, and that around 10 per cent of households have lowered their mortgage repayments since the RBA began easing rates in February.
Auction clearance rates have also been trending upwards, according to ANZ, averaging 68 per cent over the past month.
Lack of supply remains a major factor supporting projected home price growth.
Across the capital cities, new listings were down 12 per cent in July and total listings were down 8 per cent.
'Stock is particularly constrained in Hobart, with new listings down 25 per cent year-on-year and total listings down 29 per cent in July,' Ms Dunk said.
'We think some of the recent strength in housing prices is due to the lack of stock on the market.
'New listings (nationally) are down more than 10 per cent year-on-year and total listings are about 29 per cent below the 10-year average.
'Listings should rise as the spring selling season gets underway. Medium term, housing undersupply will continue to place pressure on prices, particularly in areas where population growth is strong.'
But the ANZ Research team also believes affordability constraints will prevent a sharp upswing in price growth.
'Cheaper properties are recording stronger price growth, with those in the bottom price quartile up 5.7 per cent year-on-year in July versus 1.2 per cent year-on-year for those in the top quartile,' Ms Dunk said.
'We expect Melbourne to experience an affordability-driven boost in 2026, while Adelaide may struggle given the 76 per cent rise in prices over the past five years.
'We expect the pace of growth to slow in the smaller capitals, like Perth and Adelaide.'
It comes after KPMG announced it expects house prices across the country to rise by 4.5 per cent in 2026 — up from its previous forecast of 3.3 per cent.
'You can really feel a renewed confidence in the market over the last few months in particular, with the quarterly growth rate hitting the highest level since this time last year,' KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne said.
'Two interest rate cuts so far this year, and a likely succession of further cuts on the way are helping to kick start the property market for the first time since the pandemic, putting more pressure on prices,' Dr Rynne said.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
News.com.au
2 hours ago
- News.com.au
Body corporate changes force sellers to reveal hidden costs
Buyers of lots in community title schemes will no longer fear being ambushed by unknown fees and outstanding debts following new seller disclosure requirements from August 1. Under the changes, bodies corporate must provide the seller, upon request and a fee, with a body corporate certificate (BCC). In addition, bodies corporate must supply a Community Management Statement (CMS) which confirms the name of the body corporate and the regulation module that applies. The CMS usually contains the registered by-laws, including those that grant exclusive use to lots within the scheme. The heralded improvements will enhance transparency, consistency, and efficiency within Queensland's community titles sector. They will also empower buyers who will have greater upfront knowledge of the lot they want to purchase in a community titles scheme. The BCC is a 10-page document that contains basic as well as intricate information relating to the lot being put up for sale. The information includes how to contact the body corporate, accessing records and the regulation module (accommodation, commercial, smalls schemes or standard) that applies to the scheme. No longer affordable': Brisbane property boom hits the skids It will also provide financial information such as levies, insurance coverage and, more importantly, if there are any outstanding contributions or body corporate debts associated with the lot. There have been many new owners in the past who claimed to have been blindsided by outstanding debts associated with their purchase. If they had that information beforehand, they may have been able to negotiate the price down to compensate for the outstanding debt. The new disclosure requirements will allow prospective owners to factor in outstanding debts before making an offer to buy. Be mindful that even though the BCC contains vital information that could put a buyer at ease, it is not a silver bullet. There are still reasons for the buyer to conduct body corporate searches through their conveyancer. For instance, the BCC does not include information regarding: - building defects - body corporate expenses and liabilities - past, present or future body corporate disputes - court actions or orders made against the body corporate by an adjudicator, a tribunal or a court. The 10-page BCC has been available for download from early July. It allows bodies corporate to familiarise themselves with the information required which came into effect on August 1. It is incumbent on the seller to provide the BCC and CMS to the real estate agent when the property is listed for sale. Govt pays $3.3m for unliveable derelict house For bodies corporate, a lot of the information in a BCC will only need to be compiled once as it is an ongoing document. It will only need to be updated when changes such as amended by-laws are passed. The CMS has two schedules of lot entitlements – the Interest Schedule Lot Entitlements and the Contribution Schedule Lot Entitlements. These two schedules determine how the running costs for the administration, maintenance and insurance of common property, and the cost of utility services (water/electricity), are shared between lot owners. This will provide additional transparency on the costs and how they calculated for each lot. To find out more about buying a body corporate property use this link. * Jane Wilson is the Queensland Commissioner for Body Corporate and Community Management.
News.com.au
4 hours ago
- News.com.au
University of Technology Sydney ‘temporarily suspends' 146 courses, axing 400 staff
The University of Technology Sydney has 'temporarily suspended' new enrolments for more than 100 bachelor and postgraduate programs, with 400 staff jobs on the chopping block. The suspension affects 146 courses across six faculties which the university says are 'those which have low student enrolments'. In a statement released on Thursday, UTS said it 'continually reviews its course offerings as we want to make sure our curriculum is relevant to what students and employers need'. The affected faculties include the UTS Business School, Faculty of Design and Society, Faculty of Engineering and IT, Faculty of Health, Law, Science and the Transdisciplinary School. The temporary suspension of courses will affect domestic and international students, though the university stressed it 'has no impact on current students at this time and is aimed only at prospective new students for 2026'. In addition, 400 jobs – or about 10 per cent of the UTC faculty – will be cut as part of the cost-saving initiative, including 150 academics and 250 professional staff. Faculty and staff were offered a range of support services, training sessions and counselling, including a list of '50 tips' for staff who may be losing their job, the ABC reported. Some tips included 'bake a dessert' or 'do that task you've been dreading, like washing delicates, organising receipts for your taxes, or cleaning a bathroom'. In response, some staff told the outlet they felt their concerns were 'de-legitimised' by the list. UTS researcher and National Tertiary Education Union representative Hossai Gul said the list 'naturally de-legitimised concerns of already distressed staff'. Speaking to NewsWire, a UTS spokesman said they were 'very mindful of our need to support staff though periods of uncertainty and change'. 'Throughout this period of organisational review we have sought to consult with and hear from staff in town halls meetings, drop-in sessions and QandAs, and have a dedicated internal site with frequent updates, support and feedback channels,' they said. The spokesman said the externally-produced list of '50 tips' was one of multiple different recourses for staff, including 'internal key contacts, training, counselling, wellbeing and career recourses'. 'We recognise that the change process is difficult, and not all resources are going to be suitable for everyone and we review resources available based on the feedback form staff,' they told NewsWire. In an email to UTS staff obtained by NewsWire, UTS vice-chancellor and president Andrew Parfitt said he '(recognised) that we are in a period of great uncertainty' and was 'mindful of our obligations to manage psychosocial risks ensure a safe and supportive work environment'. The email explained the cuts were an 'operational decision' intended to 'minimise potential disruption and dissatisfaction' for prospective students that could arise if 'applications are made for autumn 2026 courses that may subsequently be changed or discontinued'. While more than 100 programs have been paused, the university said the 'suspension of new student intake does not mean a course will automatically be closed'. 'Sometimes intakes are suspended ahead of phase out, some intakes are suspended while courses are redesigned to refresh curriculum and/or better meet student demand before being offered again,' the statement read. 'The suspensions will be in place until a decision is made on the future of these courses following consultation with staff and unions through a change proposal process.'
News.com.au
4 hours ago
- News.com.au
Powerball jackpot skyrockets to $30m after no winning entry on Thursday
Powerball has soared to $30m after there was no winning entry in Thursday night's draw. The winning numbers for Powerball draw 1526 were 33, 5, 12, 14, 19, 32, and 1, with the Powerball number 10. No one took home the Division 1 prize of $20m, meaning the jackpot has increased to a whopping $30m for next Thursday's Powerball. Despite no one claiming the largest prize, three Division 2 winners took home $168,353 each. A total of 51 players won Division Three, each pocketing $12,312, and 1031 players won $529 in Division Four. On Thursday, members of The Lott pounded the pavement in Sydney to try and track down the mysterious Division One winner of the $100m Powerball earlier this year. The elusive player had purchased the winning ticket at Bondi Junction Newsagency for Powerball draw 1217, which was drawn on June 12. In NSW, ticketholders have six years to claim their winnings before it expires. In an effort to inspire the mysterious winner to check their wallet, a band of runners from The Lott conducted a 'memory jog' across Bondi. 'It has now been 63 days since the elusive ticket holder won this massive $100m prize and throughout that time we have been eagerly waiting to unite the winner with their Powerball windfall,' The Lott spokesman Matt Hart said. 'Each day during the past nine weeks, we've been asking ourselves 'is today the day the winning ticket is presented?'' Entries to Thursday's Powerball draw 1527 close at 7.30pm AEST, with the draw shortly after.
