Wall Street barrels toward a big week: Fed meeting, Mag 7 earnings, jobs report, trade deadline

CNBC

25-07-2025

So long, summer doldrums. A stock market at all-time highs could be shaken up in a big way next week. Federal Reserve policymakers are convening for their July meeting at a time when central bank independence is in question. More of the Magnificent Seven companies are set to report and answer critical questions about artificial intelligence spending. Major economic data around jobs and inflation are on deck, and a key August trade deadline looms. That chain of calendar events has the potential to rock a market that's so far enjoyed a summer respite, with the S & P 500 on pace by week's end to close at a new all-time high every day this week. Volatility has been muted all month, despite dramatic economic and political headlines. This week, the S & P 500 closed above 6,300 for the first time ever. On Monday, the Magnificent Seven stocks posted their longest advance since 2023. Next week has the potential to upset the apple cart, however. "What isn't happening in this week? That is what I want to know," said Kim Forrest, founder at Bokeh Capital. Whether the rally continues could very well rest on what unfolds in the coming week. There are already faint signs of the rally running out of steam. Opendoor Technologies, an online real estate stock that was touted by hedge fund manager Eric Jackson, enjoyed a meteoric surge Monday on speculative fervor, before fizzling Tuesday — a telling signal. Skeptics are out there. BTIG's chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky, for example, said this week that the last time the Nasdaq-100 index went 60 straight days without closing below its 20-day moving average, a short-term trend indicator, was in 1999, just before the dot-com bubble burst. That technical setup, plus the start of a seasonally weak period for stocks, coupled with all manner of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary headwinds, makes for a tenuous setup heading into August. "The main takeaway is that we may encounter some turbulence, even though it's unlikely to mark a major peak," BTIG's Krinsky wrote. Fed meeting Wall Street's focus on next week's meeting of the Federal Reserve, the last until September, and the status of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, is likely to be more heated than usual after President Donald Trump's latest threats against the Fed chief and their joint tour Thursday of the Fed's Washington headquarters construction project. Trump appeared to tone down his fiercest rhetoric against Powell this week, saying the Fed chair is "going to be out pretty soon anyway." But Powell is certain to be grilled by reporters on the future independence of the central bank during the question-and-answer portion of his post-meeting press conference next Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is almost universally expected to hold its benchmark borrowing rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.50% at the conclusion of next week's two-day policy meeting, according to interest rate futures traded at the CME Group . Magnificent Seven AI spending The stock market's trajectory will also depend on the Magnificent Seven companies, four of which report their latest financial results next week: Meta Platforms and Microsoft are out on Wednesday, while Amazon and Apple release their quarterly numbers on Thursday. What the companies say about AI spending will be critical for the market. Much of the stock market's rise this year can be attributed to the torrent of capital spending from the companies known as hyperscalers, which is supposed to top $350 billion in 2025. But with the possible profits from AI still unknown, questions remain on whether the investments can be justifed. Investors will want to hear clear strategies from the hyperscalers . Meta Platforms recently raised eyebrows when it went on a spending spree, including the hiring of key AI experts such as Alexandr Wang from Scale AI as part of a $14 billion deal. Investors will also want to know more about Azure, the linchpin to Microsoft's AI ambitions. Growth in Amazon's cloud business will also be a center of attention. Jobs report, inflation data Next Friday's jobs report will come after few if any signs of cracks in the labor market from Trump's tariffs. Still, the July nonfarm payrolls report will likely show a deceleration. Economists polled by FactSet anticipate the U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to have edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%. The personal consumption expenditure price index is expected to show inflation rising, to 2.4% from 2.3% on an annual basis, and to 0.31% from 0.14% on a monthly basis, according to FactSet. Aug. 1 trade deadline Finally, Wall Street is still wading through Trump's erratic trade policies. Many expect that the Friday Aug. 1 deadline to raise tariffs, which Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick this week called a "hard deadline," will nevertheless remain flexible as the White House continues to negotiate . Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, July 28 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index Earnings: Waste Management, Universal Health Services, Nucor, Cincinnati Financial Tuesday, July 29 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (June) 9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (May) 9:00 a.m. S & P/Case-Shiller comp.20 HPI (May) 10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (July) 10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (June) Earnings: Seagate Technology, Starbucks, Mondelez International, Electronic Arts, Booking Holdings, Visa, Republic Services, PPG Industries, Caesars Entertainment, Sysco, Norfolk Southern, Hubbell, Corning, American Tower, Royal Caribbean Group, Merck & Co., United Parcel Service, Stanley Black & Decker, UnitedHealth Group, PayPal Holdings, Procter & Gamble, Ecolab, Boeing Wednesday, July 30 10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (June) 2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting 2:00 p.m. Fed Funds Target Upper Bound Earnings: MGM Resorts International, Lam Research, Ford Motor, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Qualcomm, Align Technology, Western Digital, Tyler Technologies, Public Storage, Prudential Financial, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Invitation Homes, F5, FirstEnergy, Extra Space Storage, DexCom, AvalonBay Communities, Albemarle, Hess, Altria Group, Hershey, Humana, Old Dominion Freight Line, Kraft Heinz, Generac Holdings, GE Healthcare Technologies, Automatic Data Processing, Allstate Thursday, July 31 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (07/19) 8:30 a.m. ECI Civilian Workers (Q2) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (07/26) 8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (June) 8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (June) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (June) 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (June) Earnings: Apple, Clorox, Amazon, KLA, Edison International, Monolithic Power Systems, Ingersoll Rand, First Solar, Coinbase Global, Kellanova, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Howmet Aerospace, Vulcan Materials, Comcast, Bristol Myers Squibb, Quanta Services, KKR & Co., Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, CVS Health, CMS Energy, Cigna Group, PG & E, Air Products & Chemicals, Mastercard, International Paper, Biogen, AbbVie Friday, Aug. 1 8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings preliminary (July) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (July) 8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (July) 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (July) 8:30 a.m. Participation Rate (July) 8:30 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (July) 8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (July) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Manufacturing final (July) 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (June) 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (July) 10:00 a.m Michigan Sentiment final (July) Earnings: T. Rowe Price Group, Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon Mobil, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Moderna, Kimberly-Clark, Chevron — CNBC's Jeff Cox, Yun Li and Samantha Subin contributed to this report.