Same Story, New Cast

Time of India

a day ago

Gen Next netas are leading Bihar assembly contests, but it's still all caste and faith
Nitish Kumar rarely looks wobbly. Even when his govt shifts from one alliance to the other. He is rarely a failed engine in image or perception. But ahead of 2025 assembly election, Bihar's CM may find himself as shaky as some of his state's bridges turn out to be. For all the supposed faith in 'sushasan babu', fact is his biggest competition is emerging within his own alliance. NDA ally, who calls himself Modi's 'hanuman', the man who played spoiler for JDU in 2020 state polls, Dalit Union minister Chirag Paswan wants to be NDA's CM-face. And he's making no bones about it.
Chirag's confidence in moving from Parliament to Patna, with plans to contest on all 243 assembly seats, is driven by the fact that LJP in 2020 likely hurt NDA in 59 seats, where it relegated JDU and allies to third slot. Chirag's rise from the dust of factionalism after his father Ram Vilas Paswan's death in 2021 is in no small measure due to Modi keeping an eye out for him. It may be very early days yet. But Bihar lives election to election, with intervening five years committed to a cycle of falling bridges, poverty chatter, migration, and MosPI surveys. When it's poll-time, it's back to stirring the caste cauldron.
It's the first election after the deaths of BJP face Sushil Modi and LJP's Ram Vilas Paswan. Nitish's health is not what it used to be, and Lalu has handed over the reins to his son – Tejashwi, who leads opposition INDIA camp. Count in also Jitan Ram Manjhi's son. Short shrift was made of Nitish's attempts to induct his son into politics – JDU's future would seem uncertain. NDA made Nitish CM in 2020, but by far BJP is the bigger partner. In 2020 state polls, NDA won 125 seats (BJP 74, JDU 43), then UPA 110 (RJD 75, Cong 19). In Lok Sabha 2024, BJP won 12 of Bihar's 40 seats with vote share 21%, JDU 12 seats with 19%, and Chirag's LJP(RV) all 5 seats it contested with a 7% vote share. Opposition RJD won 4 seats with 22%.
The assembly election in a way is a handover to Gen Next who'll be contesting against the backdrop of the 2022 caste survey, an upcoming caste census, and 'illegal immigrants' which is a poll issue for the first time in Bihar. Collapsing bridges, crippled health infra, migration and poverty – all that's for the surveyors, not elections.
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This piece appeared as an editorial opinion in the print edition of The Times of India.