Analysis: Cyril Ramaphosa's Washington Test

Yahoo

19-05-2025

When President Cyril Ramaphosa walks into the White House this week, he does so with the ghost of Volodymyr Zelensky behind him — a reminder of how Trump uses power to dominate, not negotiate. 'You have no cards,' Trump famously barked at Zelensky. Ramaphosa, it must be said, does have some cards — though Trump has more than him.
This meeting is being framed as a diplomatic reset. But those familiar with Trump's foreign policy playbook know that 'reset' often means 'submit.' The White House has a bee in its bonnet over South Africa's positions on Israel, BRICS, and what it views as 'anti-West' posturing. The genocide case against Israel at the ICJ has enraged Washington. Trump's counter? Embrace fringe claims of persecution against Afrikaners — muddying the waters by mirroring the ICJ language.
Yet South Africa is not without leverage. Despite domestic volatility, it holds the keys to part of the 21st-century global economy: minerals. It controls over 80% of global platinum reserves and ranks among the top producers of vanadium and manganese — all essential to battery technology, defence systems, and the green energy transition. The US Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act make clear that mineral supply chains are now a matter of national security. And South Africa, quite literally, is sitting on the motherlode.
In return for recognition as a strategic partner, Pretoria may offer a trade deal modeled on the UK-US framework, with reciprocal tariffs around 10%. That would quietly acknowledge that AGOA — the duty-free agreement once seen as a cornerstone of US-SA ties — is effectively over. Moving from preferential access to bilateral parity signals a shift from supplicant to equal. But it comes at a price: South African exporters lose competitive edge, and Washington knows it.
This may not be the end, but the beginning of a longer diplomatic dance. South Africa wants Trump to attend the G20 Heads of State Summit in Johannesburg this November, ideally with a state visit. That platform offers space for symbolism, trade deals, and strategic theatre — if this week sets the tone.
But for progress, South Africa must be understood — not caricatured. There is no genocide against Afrikaners. The ICJ case is not an attack on the West, but a defence of international legal norms. Pretoria may lower the volume, but it can't walk away now. The case has advanced too far to retreat without looking weak.
Meanwhile, Trump's allies are circling. Elon Musk's Starlink wants market access without BEE compliance or social investment obligations — a pressure point that will test South Africa's regulatory sovereignty and political resolve.
Ramaphosa has leverage — minerals, legal capital, and moral voice. If he uses them well, this could be a moment of strategic affirmation. If not, he risks leaving Washington with the optics of diplomacy — and a deal already written in Washington ink.