German Election Set to Shrink World's Largest Parliament

Bloomberg

18-02-2025

By Tom Fevrier Chris Reiter
With 735 seats, Germany's Bundestag is the largest elected parliament in the world. It'll get significantly smaller after the election on Sunday as the result of an overhaul of the voting system that has been in the works since the last effort fell short five years ago. Difficulties in reaching consensus on the reform are a glimpse of possible discord facing the next government as it tries to revive Europe's largest economy.
The current Bundestag is 23% larger than its 598-seat base due to complex procedures that aim to balance local representation with national political support. As a result, costs for the lower house of parliament climbed to €1.24 billion last year, roughly 25% more than in 2020. The growing costs associated with hundreds of additional lawmakers jars with the need to reduce bureaucracy and streamline decision making.
At the vote, Bundestag seats will be capped at 630. While that's a step forward, the number is still 32 seats above the base. The legislation was also partially watered down in court after being contested by parties including the poll-leading Christian Democratic Union as well as the Left, which is fighting to maintain its place in the chamber.
It's clear to see why it was so contentious. If the rules were applied to the 2021 election results, the Bundestag would've been cut by 105 seats. The Bavarian center-right Christian Social Union — an ally of the CDU — would've lost the biggest share of seats in the chamber, as it was allowed to keep three so-called overhang seats, which skewed proportionality.
How the New Voting System Would've Changed Parliament
Difference between each party's seat share in the 2021 election and its seat share according to the new voting system, in percentage points
Here's how it all works
When Germans go to the polls, they cast two votes: the first one for a local candidate and the second for party preference. The latter is ultimately what matters for the makeup of the Bundestag. Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats, for instance, won the last election by getting 25.7% of the second votes, beating the CDU/CSU bloc's 24.2%.
Because of the system, parties can end up with more seats than they would be entitled to based solely on their share of the national vote. These extra representatives are known as 'overhang seats.' To restore proportionality based on the second vote, 'leveling seats' were introduced in 2013 and were granted to other parties to balance out the overhang.
How Parliament Ballooned
Number of additional seats in the Bundestag, by federal election year
That meant the more overhang seats from local winners, the more leveling seats were needed to balance them out. In other words, the solution created a new problem, leading to a surge in the number of lawmakers in the last two election cycles.
Legislation in 2020 sought to trim seats by not balancing out as many as three overhang seats, but that failed mainly because the CSU won so many districts in Bavaria.
The 2023 electoral law will now focus on proportional representation. Overhang and leveling seats have been abolished, and local candidates will only win a spot in parliament if there are sufficient party votes to back the seat.
How the New Voting System Plays Out
How reform affects smaller parties
Initially, the government eliminated the threshold that allows parties to enter parliament if they have candidates leading in three or more districts, the so-called 'basic mandate' clause.
This was criticized by the Left, the CDU and the CSU for being unfair to smaller parties. In June 2024, the German Constitutional Court reinstated the 'basic mandate' clause for lack of a better solution, resulting in the current system.
That could be good news for some parties. Recent polls project that the business-friendly Free Democrats and the new far-left splinter party BSW will fall below the 5% threshold for representation in the Bundestag. They could still make it in then, if they can secure at least three districts.
That's not unheard of. In 2021, the Left managed to make it into the Bundestag despite getting just 4.9% of the second votes.
If it sounds complicated, it's because it is. But at least Germany will have a smaller Bundestag now.