India's US crude imports jump 51% in H1 2025; Brazil inflows rise 80%: S&P Global
The growth signals an increasing shift by Indian refiners towards non-OPEC sources of crude as the country looks to diversify its energy basket. 'Crude supplies from the US have been rising but have been limited to a few refiners in India. This allows room for other refiners to grow US imports further during the year,' said Abhishek Ranjan, South Asia oil research lead at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Lower Chinese purchases of US crude due to higher tariffs have created an opening for India to increase its imports and simultaneously reduce its trade deficit with Washington. At the same time, diplomatic outreach to Brazil is showing results. Petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri visited Brazil last year to explore energy cooperation, including expanding crude imports and collaborating on deepwater exploration. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also scheduled to visit Brazil later this month.
US flows recover after dip
Indian refiners had previously imported large volumes of US crude, but purchases slowed over the past two to three years as Russia emerged as a key supplier. Now, US flows are reviving. Modi's visit to the US in February and his discussions with American leadership on strengthening energy ties are seen as contributing factors.
Trade dynamics have also played a role. The US announced reciprocal tariffs on India and other countries on April 2, but paused the increase for 90 days from April 10 to allow time for negotiations.
Russia retains top supplier position
Russia continued to be India's top crude oil supplier during January–June 2025, with shipments of 1.67 million b/d, marginally higher than 1.66 million b/d in the same period last year, according to Commodities at Sea (CAS) data from S&P Global.
'Volumes are rising again, supported by lower crude prices that enable higher volumes to be procured below the price cap. As the global oversupply is expected to continue putting pressure on prices, we expect Russian flows to remain at current levels, if not increase,' Ranjan said.
Spot FOB Primorsk Urals crude exceeded the G7-led $60 per barrel price cap during the Israel-Iran conflict, crossing the threshold on June 13 and remaining above it until June 24. Platts assessed Urals FOB Primorsk at $56.32/b on July 1.
Mixed trends from other suppliers
Crude imports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia declined by 4 per cent and 2 per cent respectively in the six-month period. Shipments from Angola fell 22 per cent year-on-year, while inflows from Nigeria increased 26 per cent to 158,000 b/d.
'Gradually rising crude throughput in Dangote refinery will mean that those Nigerian crudes will not be able to support crude demand growth from India. There might be a few months of higher crude imports, but they should decline on an annual basis in terms of imports to India,' Ranjan added.
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