Earth's average temperature for 2025-29 likely to exceed 1.5 deg C limit: WMO
A new WMO report warns of a high probability that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold above pre-industrial levels between 2025 and 2029. There's also a significant chance that one of those years will be the warmest on record, surpassing 2024.
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
There is a 70 per cent chance that the average global temperature for the 2025-2029 period will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a new report published by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on Wednesday. It also said that there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record.Besides being the hottest on record, 2024 was the first calendar year with a global mean temperature of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 baseline, the period before human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, began significantly impacting the climate.The 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is a target that countries agreed to at the Paris climate conference in 2015 to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.A permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming over a 20 or 30-year period.Countries are required to submit their next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) or national climate plans for the 2031-2035 period to the UN climate change office this year. The collective aim of these climate plans is to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.The WMO report said that the average global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is expected to be between 1.2 and 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than it was between 1850 and 1900.There is an 86 per cent chance that for at least one year during this period, the temperature will be more than 1.5 degrees higher than the 1850-1900 average.The report also said there is a 70 per cent chance that the average temperature for the entire five-year period will be more than 1.5 degrees higher than the 1850-1900 average."We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett."Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt," she said.The WMO said that in South Asia, recent years have been wetter than usual (except 2023) and this trend is expected to continue between 2025 and 2029, although some seasons might still be dry.According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India received above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season in four of the past five years.The IMD has predicted above-normal monsoon rainfall this year.The WMO said the Arctic is expected to warm much faster than the rest of the world over the next five winters (November to March), by about 2.4 degrees Celsius, more than three and a half times the global average.Sea ice is likely to shrink even more between 2025 and 2029 in parts of the Arctic like the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.From May to September during 2025-2029, some places like the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia are expected to have more rain than usual, while the Amazon is likely to be drier than normal, the WMO said.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
India.com
2 hours ago
- India.com
What will happen If Earth's temperature rises by just 2 degrees Celsius? These places will...
Our planet Earth is truly amazing. It's the only home we have, providing everything we need to survive, including air, water, food, shelter, and biodiversity. Have you ever wondered what would happen if the global temperature rises by two degrees Celsius? According to a new scientific study, the Hindu Kush Himalaya, an important water source for nearly two billion people, could lose up to 75 per cent of its glacier ice by the end of this century if global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It is important to note that the glaciers in the Hindu Kush mountains are the source of many rivers, which receive their water from the glaciers and support the livelihoods of two billion people. A study published in the scientific journal Science states that if countries can limit the rise in temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, around 40–45% of the glacier ice in the Himalayas and the Caucasus Mountains could be preserved. In contrast, the study found that if global temperatures rise by 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, only about one-quarter of the world's glacier ice will remain. 'We estimate that glaciers globally will lose 39 (range, 15 to 55)% of their mass relative to 2020, corresponding to a global mean sea-level rise of 113 (range, 43 to 204) mm even if temperatures stabilized at present-day conditions. Under the +1.5°C Paris Agreement goal, more than twice as much global glacier mass remains at equilibration (53% versus 24%) compared with the warming level resulting from current policies (+2.7°C by 2100 above preindustrial),' reads the abstract of the study. The study states that glacier regions most important to human communities, such as the European Alps, the mountain ranges of western North America and Canada, and Iceland, will be especially hard hit. At a global temperature rise of two degrees Celsius, these regions could lose nearly all of their ice, with only about 10–15 percent of the 2020 ice levels remaining. The study reads, 'If global temperatures stabilize at the limits targeted in the Paris Agreement, then glaciers are projected to eventually lose 47% (range, 20 to 64%) of their global mass relative to 2020 for a +1.5°C scenario and 63% (range, 43 to 76%) for a +2.0°C scenario, contributing 138 mm (range, 59 to 237 mm) and 190 mm (range, 128 to 279 mm) to global mean sea-level rise, respectively (all values at steady state). Under current climate policy pledges, global temperatures are projected to reach 2.7°C above preindustrial levels by 2100 (30), which would result in eventually losing 76% (range, 54 to 82%) of glacier mass globally, corresponding to 230 mm (range, 159 to 302 mm) of sea-level rise. Thus, more than twice as much global glacier mass is projected to remain long term under the Paris Agreement +1.5°C goal compared with current climate policies.' The outlook for the Scandinavian mountains appears even more dire, with forecasts suggesting that glaciers in the region could lose all their ice at this temperature level. The study emphasizes that keeping the global temperature increase within the 1.5°C limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement could aid in retaining some glacier ice in all affected areas. While speaking at the conference, Asian Development Bank Vice-President Yingming Yang said. 'Melting glaciers threaten lives on an unprecedented scale, including the livelihoods of more than 2 billion people in Asia. Switching to clean energy to cut the release of planet-warming emissions remains the most effective way of slowing glacial melt'.
NDTV
10 hours ago
- NDTV
Viral Video Of Chinese Paraglider's Accidental 8,000-Metre Flight Might Be AI-Generated
A viral video of a Chinese paraglider accidentally being propelled more than 8,000 metres high by an updraft has been found to be generated by artificial intelligence, at least partially, according to a report in NBC News. 55-year-old Peng Yujiang claimed that he was paragliding at approximately 3,000 metres, but the unexpected conditions carried him nearly 5,000 metres higher. He endured temperatures around -40 degrees Celsius and dangerously low oxygen levels. Despite experiencing hypoxia and severe frostbite, Mr Peng managed to remain conscious and safely navigated back to the ground. However, the investigation reveals that the first five seconds of the video might be AI-generated. In the clip, Mr Peng can be seen gliding at high altitude with his legs dangling, but the footage is seemingly cropped. The crop omitted a logo belonging to Doubao AI, suggesting it was likely created by the ByteDance-owned company's AI tool. The same portion of the video was uploaded separately to Facebook on May 25 with the company's watermark. "It's unclear if the remaining footage of Peng gliding through the sky which differs from the first five seconds is authentic or not," the publication stated. GetReal Labs, an AI-verification company, corroborated the claims, stating that the analysis of the footage yielded proof of AI use. "We were able to extract a few frames and analyze them using our Inspect platform, and our models confirm that the images are synthetic," said GetReal Labs, adding that several other elements in the video differed from the rest of the footage. News agency Reuters, which distributed the clip without the AI logo has taken down the video. Other news outlet have also removed their versions of the video. "We have reason to believe this is an AI-generated video and are currently working on killing this footage," Reuters said. Peng banned Notably, Mr Peng was testing secondhand paragliding equipment when the alleged incident took place. The video clip instantly went viral on social media with users lauding him for keeping calm. "I had just bought a second-hand paragliding harness and wanted to test it, so I was conducting ground parachute shaking. After a while, the wind suddenly picked up and lifted me into the air. I tried to land as soon as possible, but I failed," Mr Peng told the Chinese media. Mr Peng and his friend, who posted the video, received six-month bans from paragliding activities due to unauthorised flight and safety violations.
Time of India
16 hours ago
- Time of India
Climate change impacting cyclones, Maha agri: Study
Nagpur: Rising sea surface temperatures are spurring severe to super cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea over the last two decades, finds a study, which also flagged increased adverse weather events in the latter part of North Indian Ocean because of climate change. The joint study by Dr Rizwan Ahmed, IMD scientist at RMC Nagpur, Shahenaz Mulla, a meteorologist at Climate Research Services, IMD Pune, and Prof Sudhir Kumar Singh from K Banerjee Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Studies, University of Allahabad, revealed the escalating impact of climate change on tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean and their devastating effects on Maharashtra's agriculture. "We found a troubling shift in cyclone patterns over the Arabian Sea driven by climate change. Cyclones are growing in intensity, lasting longer over land, and penetrating deeper inland, far beyond traditional coastal zones. This transformation is wreaking havoc on Maharashtra's agricultural sector, causing prolonged flooding, increased soil salinity, root stress, and widespread crop failure," said Dr Ahmed. Titled "Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Land-Falling Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean and Their Effects on Coastal Agriculture in Maharashtra", the research was recently published in the Scopus-indexed journal Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, recognised by the World Meteorological Organization and ESCAP's typhoon committee. According to the study, a total of 44 severe or super cyclones occurred between 2001 and 2012 of the study period. Data analysis revealed that 35 (80%) tropical cyclones were eye pattern, which usually take a severe form. "Case studies of Cyclone Nisarga (2020) and Cyclone Tauktae (2021) highlight the scale of destruction, with Nisarga alone inflicting over Rs1,000 crore in damages, impacting 1.4 lakh homes, and ruining nearly 20,000 hectares of farmland in Raigad and Ratnagiri districts," Dr Ahmed said. The research also shows a shift in the overland duration of tropical cyclones. The Arabian Sea experienced 170 hours (7 days) of cyclones from 1982-2000, which increased to 367 hours (15.2 days) from 2001-21. Correspondingly, the cyclones reduced in the Bay of Bengal from 1295 to 1062, respectively, for the same periods. "This study demonstrates that climate change is modifying the behaviour of tropical cyclones. Their increasing strength and inland reach directly threaten coastal agricultural livelihoods in states like Maharashtra. There is an urgent need to strengthen early warning systems, adopt salt-tolerant crop varieties, and develop comprehensive coastal land-use management policies," Dr Ahmed said. Mulla added, "Vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI) quantified evidence of sharp declines in vegetation health following cyclone events. Our findings have significant policy implications for agricultural planning and the restructuring of crop insurance schemes in cyclone-prone regions." The research utilised advanced tools like INSAT-3D/3DR satellite data, Doppler weather radar, and forecasting models to track cyclone paths and intensities. Vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI) quantified post-cyclone crop and soil damage. Study Highlights - A marked increase in cyclone intensity, duration over land, and inland penetration, which now regularly extends far beyond traditional coastal impact zones - These changes in cyclone behaviour are having cascading effects on agriculture, including prolonged flooding, increased soil salinity, root stress, and crop failure in regions that were previously less exposed - Case studies of Cyclone Nisarga (2020) and Cyclone Tauktae (2021) illustrate how these systems are no longer limited to coastal disruptions but are severely affecting interior districts - Cyclone Nisarga alone caused over Rs1,000 crore in damages, affected more than 1.4 lakh homes, and damaged nearly 20,000 hectare farmland in Maharashtra's Raigad and Ratnagiri districts
