How Trump's 'big beautiful bill' is shaping this year's biggest elections

NBC News

14 hours ago

President Donald Trump's sweeping tax cut and spending law known as the 'big beautiful bill' is expected to be a major issue in the 2026 midterm elections. But first, candidates for governor this year in Virginia and New Jersey are already testing how the measure plays on the campaign trail.
Rep. Mikie Sherrill and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominees in New Jersey and Virginia, respectively, have warned about devastating impacts from looming cuts to social safety net programs such as Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
Republicans are taking mixed approaches. In New Jersey, a high-tax state where affordability is a top issue, former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli and his allies are planning to go on offense, arguing that Sherrill voted to block critical tax cuts.
And in Virginia, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the GOP nominee, has dismissed concerns about program cuts, arguing that the state's Republican governor has put the state in a strong position to respond.
Those lines of attack could determine who holds the governorships of two key states by the beginning of next year, as well as set the tone for how candidates battling for control of Congress approach the issue in 2026.
Democrats focus on budget cuts, Republicans focus on tax cuts
Democrats have already signaled that they plan to go all in on the measure's changes to SNAP, the program once known as food stamps, and Medicaid.
The Democratic Governors Association released a memo Monday detailing its polling of Virginia and New Jersey, which showed majorities of voters in both states have 'serious concerns' and slim majorities saying they would prefer governors who oppose the measure.
'The races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey in November will be voters' first opportunity to reject Trump's harmful budget bill — and the GOP nominees will not be able to run from their record of supporting these deeply unpopular Medicaid cuts,' DGA Executive Director Meghan Meehan-Draper wrote in the memo.
A congressional analysis published by Democrats on the Joint Economic Committee estimates that in Virginia, more than 300,000 residents could lose their health care by 2034. The number is a combination of people who could lose their Medicaid under changes to the program and people who would no longer be eligible for the state's expansion of that program under the Affordable Care Act.
The New Jersey Department of Human Services estimated that around 350,000 residents who are eligible for Medicaid would lose health care coverage 'because of bureaucratic barriers,' and warned that the state's food assistance program, which affects 800,000 residents, is at risk unless the state can raise between $100 million and $300 million.
In New Jersey, Ciattarelli has confronted concerns about Medicaid cuts by echoing Republicans in Washington who say those who need the program's crucial health coverage will still receive it.
'The best way to protect Medicaid is to make sure that those who receive it are truly in need of it most,' Ciattarelli said in a video posted on X after the measure passed the Senate. 'As I go around the state each and every day, I find an overwhelming number of New Jerseyans agree that able-bodied adults without young children should have to work or go to school at least 20 hours a week to remain eligible for their Medicaid benefits.'
Ciattarelli and his GOP allies are planning to go on offense on the measure with a focus on taxes, lauding provisions codifying the 2017 tax cuts and temporarily raising the federal deduction for state and local taxes from $10,000 to $40,000, a top issue in the high-tax state.
Ciattarelli knocked Sherrill for opposing the measure after pledging to work to eliminate the SALT cap, saying in his video statement that Sherrill 'voted to raise your taxes.' (Democrats note that a SALT cap is still in place under the new law and argue the law's tax cuts will benefit the wealthy overall.)
Chris Russell, a Ciattarelli campaign consultant, told NBC News that the campaign plans to emphasize Sherrill's vote against the tax provisions in this measure, which also boosted the child tax credit, and made tips and overtime pay exempt from federal taxes.
'That is going to directly impact people in New Jersey and their pocketbooks,' Russell said, later adding, 'We intend to make her defend that vote.'
Change NJ, a pro-Ciattarelli super PAC, has already launched digital ads knocking Sherrill for opposing the measure, focusing on the tax provisions.
The group also released a memo last week with a poll from its senior adviser and pollster Kellyanne Conway, Trump's former campaign manager. The survey, which tested a range of attacks against Sherrill, found that the best-performing attack highlighted 'her vote to not extend Trump tax cuts, leading to a potential $1,700 tax hike for families, tax hike on small businesses and a cut to the child tax credit,' although critics of the poll note it modeled an electorate more favorable to Republicans.
'This is the most recent, most vivid example of Mikie doing the things in Washington that people are tired of Trenton Democrats doing,' Change NJ spokesman Carlos Cruz said. 'To that end, you should expect to see us talking a lot about it.'
Democrats highlight downstream effects of Medicaid spending cuts
Hospital associations have also warned that rural hospitals in Virginia will take a major financial hit under the law, because they rely so heavily on Medicaid dollars: People living in rural areas are far more likely to receive their health insurance through Medicaid.
Both Spanberger and Sherrill have emphasized those cuts on the campaign trail.
Sherrill held events earlier this month at a health care center in Camden, a solar energy business in Southampton Township, and Kean University in Union to highlight the effects of the 'one big beautiful bill,' which Sherrill has called the "Republican Price Hike Bill.'
'This cruel piece of legislation will kick hundreds of thousands of New Jerseyans off their healthcare and raise costs for even more, cut food assistance for working families, and increase the cost of utilities and mortgages,' Sherrill said in her statement explaining her vote against the measure. 'At the same time, they are funneling New Jersey's hard-earned tax dollars to Trump's billionaire friends and donors.'
Spanberger, for her part, made criticism of Trump's bill a central tenet of a campaign bus tour through Virginia in late June, telling voters during a stop in Fredericksburg before the measure was enacted that she'd already begun 'looking at how we can make sure that, come January, as few people as possible get pushed off of Medicaid.'
In video released by her campaign after the House passed its iteration of the bill, she warned that it would constitute a 'massive attack on health care as we know it' and create 'a reality where Virginians cannot afford the care they need,' warning that it would boot people off Medicaid, cause rural hospital closures, increase prescription drug costs and overrun emergency rooms.
In both states, Democrats also plan to use the Republicans' support for the bill to make the broader case that they won't stand up to Trump, who lost both states by nearly 6 percentage points.
Earle-Sears says 'don't panic'
In Virginia, Earle-Sears has both praised Trump's tax-and-spend law and brushed off concerns about the measure.
At a press conference one week after the law was enacted, Earle-Sears responded to questions about its impact on rural hospitals and voters' concerns about the law more broadly. 'I would say to Virginia, don't panic,' she said, before adding that 'things are being worked out' and saying that federal and state lawmakers had begun taking actions to counter hits to health care coverage.
A week earlier — but still after the bill was enacted — Earle-Sears said during an interview on Newsmax, a conservative television network, that the bill 'does so many great things' amid a broader discussion about her policy plans to create jobs in Virginia.
And in June, prior to Trump's bill becoming law, Earle-Sears told a crowd at an event in the rural town of Marion that the state would be able to fill in financial gaps created by cuts to Medicaid with 'rainy day' state budgetary funds.
Virginia Democrats have pushed as loudly on instances of Earle-Sears defending the law as they have on Spanberger's criticism of it.
'After supporting and praising these cuts, all Winsome Earle-Sears has to say is 'don't panic,'' Democratic Party of Virginia spokesperson Maggie Amjad said in response to questions about how the party was positioning itself to message on Trump's law in the governor's race. Amjad called the GOP nominee's comments 'dismissive and empty advice.'
Responding to questions about Earle-Sears' views on Trump's law — and about Democratic attacks on that response — campaign spokesperson Peyton Vogel wrote in an email that 'Abigail Spanberger may not be aware of this, but we're running for Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia.'
'When she and Joe Biden were sending bills that directly impacted the future of our Commonwealth, Governor Youngkin and Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears fought for all Virginians,' Vogel added. 'That's where all of our priorities should be focused, on the people of Virginia. Fear mongering over President Trump's tax cuts is a losing strategy, but we aren't going to get in Abigail's way.'
Republicans working for some outside groups wouldn't rule out the idea of ads promoting aspects of Trump's law in the state, as seems to be on the menu in New Jersey, where the pro-Ciattarelli super PAC noted the political value of the tax cut provisions.
But Vogel said the Earle-Sears campaign was not planning to feature in any ads, or as part of any paid media, any messaging that defended or touted the "big beautiful bill."
'We are focused on Virginia and Winsome's story,' she said.